The Heat have ranked in the Top 10 in adjusted defensive rating in each of the last four seasons, a testament to Erik Spoelstra’s ability to motivate his players. Despite having guys in and out of the lineup, Spoelstra’s teams remain strong defensively, especially on the perimeter, where they held opponents to 35.7% shooting from beyond the arc on non-heaves last season, the third-best mark in the NBA. That ability to defend gives Miami a high floor, reflected in their -500 odds to make the playoffs. However, surpassing their season win total of 44.5 and making a deep playoff run is more of a question mark.
Last season, the Heat won 46 games despite Jimmy Butler missing 22 games, Bam Adebayo missing 11 and Tyler Herro sitting out 40. For the Heat to thrive in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference, these key players, along with role players, need to be healthier. Simply limping into the playoffs and hoping for the right matchup may no longer be sufficient for Miami.
Butler and Adebayo are crucial to the Heat’s identity. With both on the court, Miami allowed just 110.8 points per 100 possessions and had a net rating of +4.8. However, the team’s overall net rating was only +1.7, with 112.7 points allowed per 100 possessions. Butler and Adebayo embody “Heat Culture,” driving Miami’s intensity. Butler guards top opposing wings, while Adebayo disrupts pick-and-rolls as one of the most switchable centers in the league. Offensively, both players wear many hats. Butler can score 30 points on any given night or act as a facilitator, while Adebayo has developed into a reliable 20-point scorer and remains an elite passer for a big man.
The main concern for Miami is whether there’s enough firepower outside of Butler and Adebayo to compete in the Eastern Conference. Herro, despite his flaws, is crucial for the Heat’s success. While Miami made a Finals run without him two years ago, the team isn’t good enough offensively to survive without someone who averaged 20.8 points and 4.5 assists per game on strong shooting splits last season. Miami’s offense struggled last year, ranking just 21st in adjusted offensive rating, partly due to Herro’s prolonged absence.
Another key piece is Terry Rozier, acquired from the Hornets last season. Rozier averaged 16.4 points and 4.6 assists per game after joining Miami. Though criticized as a “chucker” for his shot-heavy tendencies — especially when it comes to pull-up jumpers — Rozier’s scoring ability fills a void on a team that has struggled to generate offense in recent years.
The development of young players like Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic and rookie Kel’el Ware could also be critical to Miami’s success this season. Jaquez, who made the All-Rookie First Team last year, averaged 11.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in his first season. The Heat will rely heavily on him, though his shooting — 32.2% from 3 during the regular season, dipping to 23.1% in the playoffs — needs improvement. Jovic, while not a regular contributor yet, shows promise as a 6-foot-10 forward with shooting and ball-handling ability. Ware, a 7-foot center with both rim-running skills and 3-point shooting range, is seen as a potential long-term fit next to Adebayo.
If Jaquez and Jovic show significant improvement, Miami’s championship window might reopen. However, there is concern that the team may be heading in the wrong direction, especially as the rest of the Eastern Conference strengthens. Much of Miami’s fate depends on Butler, who turned 35 before the season. His numbers last year showed a decline, with his Offensive EPM being well below his OEPM in 2023 and his Defensive EPM being the lowest since 2015. If Butler can’t return to peak form, Miami might not even make the playoffs.
Perhaps a shift in offensive philosophy can help this team out. Spoelstra has been emphasizing 3s — even allowing Adebayo to launch some — and devaluing the mid-range shot in training camp. Miami was first in the NBA in mid-range frequency (35.6%) last year, and Spoelstra wants a more modern offense.
While Miami’s defense provides a solid foundation, their playoff hopes are reliant on health, offensive development and whether their veteran stars can continue to perform at a high level. The Heat have the potential to win any single playoff series, but winning multiple with this current roster might not be in the cards anymore. Perhaps Miami will change that with a move or two at the deadline.
Heat Win Total Prediction
A lot of teams are getting better in the Eastern Conference, and that means that others are due for some regression. The Heat are as good a pick as any to slide down the pecking order a bit. The wheels probably won’t fall off in Miami as long as Spoelstra is around, but the talent just isn’t there when looking at this team. When you add in the high probability of injuries, this looks like a team that will win 44 or fewer games. Maybe Miami sneaks into the playoffs through the Play-In Tournament again, and that would then put a higher seed on upset watch. But that feels like the ceiling for this group.
Lean: Under 44.5 Wins (-115)
