After a second round that produced a Game Seven and a pair of seed upsets, we have reached the Conference Finals portion of the NBA playoff schedule, so does my coverage of the top betting trends and systems for the round, looking at both series and game-by-game wagering options. This is part three of a four-part series, with just the NBA Finals segment to go. We already know that the Finals are scheduled to tip off on Thursday, June 5th, so you will see that last piece in about two weeks. Who will reach the title series? Indiana or New York? Minnesota or OKC? Let’s take a look at some past trends for betting series. You will find one particular trend that has been an incredible performer for bettors, since it projects two upsets.

 

As I reasoned in the first two articles of this package, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these series trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date. The first thing to consider is that the chances of seed upsets in the conference finals are quite high, even more so than in the second round. 

• There have been 20 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons, and the better seeds own just an 11-9 edge in series wins and a 62-48 game wins edge during that span. There have been five sweeps, four by the better seed, including Boston over Indiana last year. The other series in 2024 was also short, with Dallas turning back Minnesota in five games.

• There have been 16 conference finals series over the last 10 playoff seasons that involved teams squaring off whose regular season win totals were within 7 of one another. Those series have been almost toss-ups, with the worse-seeded team winning nine times (44 individual wins) and the better seed winning seven times (46 individual wins).

• The last four times that there have been differences of double-digit margins between teams’ regular season wins, the better seed won all three series and was 16-4 in individual games. This was the case for the Boston-Indiana series last year.

• Winning 70%+ of regular-season games is a key benchmark of conference championship series success for better seeds. Those that did and weren’t facing a 70%+ win teams are 7-1 in series and 28-13 in individual games. Those that won fewer than 70% of their regular season games are just 3-6 in their last seven conference finals series (25-27 in games).

• There has been a massive advantage of late in analyzing the earlier playoff round performances of the teams in a conference finals series. Teams that played fewer games in the first two rounds, or essentially lost fewer games in those series, are on a 19-1 conference finals series run! Four of the last 24 series matched teams that played equal games. The only team to lose after playing fewer games was Milwaukee in 2019. Considering this information for 2025, both Indiana and Minnesota will be owning edges.

• Teams that faced a Game Seven matchup in either of their first two rounds series have won just two of their last 15 conference finals series when not matched up against an opponent that faced a Game Seven itself. This includes both series’ last year. For 2025, none of New York, Indiana and Minnesota played in Game Sevens. Only Oklahoma City did of the four remaining teams.

94 points is a low benchmark for conference finals success – Teams that score 94 points or less in a conference finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 10-51 SU and 11-50 ATS (18%) since 2013. 

Success accompanies reaching the 116-point mark – Conference finals playoff teams scoring 116 points or more boast a record of 52-5 SU and 51-4-2 ATS (92.7%) over the last 12 seasons. Three of those ATS losses came in the last two years, however.

Big favorites are slowing – From 2013-2108 in the NBA playoffs, conference finals favorites of 5 points or more were 35-6 SU and 28-13 ATS. Since then, they are just 19-13 SU and 11-20-1 ATS (35.5%), including 2-10 ATS over the last two seasons. 

Small road favorites have been very vulnerable – Road favorites of 4.5 points are just 8-10 SU and 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) in their last 18 tries in the Conference Finals. 

High totals have meant Unders – Of the 47 games in the last 10 conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 29 of them have gone Under the total (61.7%). The entire East Finals of 2025 could land in this range, and the West has a chance to get up into that territory with some early series high-scoring contests. 

Totals in the 209-216 range have been most apt to see Over results – There have been 33 games in the last 11 conference finals series that have seen totals in this range, and 24 of them have gone Over (72.7%). Game One of the West Finals is showing a total of 215.5 at present.

Zig-zag theory is alive and well in conference finals – Over the last four conference finals seasons, teams coming off outright losses in conference finals games are 24-21 SU and 29-15-1 ATS (65.9%) in their 45 follow-up games. Those that lost by single digits are 20-12 Under (62.5%) the total in their next game. 

Close losses and playing on the road have been a bad scenario – Teams coming off losses of 10 points or less and playing on the road are just 5-15 SU and 8-12 ATS (40%) in conference finals games dating back to 2014.

Conference finals series opening games have been tough on home teams of late – Home teams hold a 11-7 SU edge, but they are 7-11 ATS (38.9%) in conference finals Game Ones since 2015. 

The last 10 conference finals Game Ones have been offensive explosions – Nine of the last 10 conference finals Game Ones have gone Over the total (90%), producing 232.9 PPG, surpassing posted totals by almost 18 PPG! 

Home teams that won the opening game usually win Game Twos as well – The last 12 conference finals Game Two home teams that won Game One are 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS (58.3%) in the follow-up contest. 

2-0 leads are motivating in a conference finals series – Game Three conference finals teams are up 2-0 in the series are on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS (80%) streak in their last five tries. The only non-cover was by Boston in Game Three at Indiana last May. 

Teams that lost big in Game Two bounce back well in Game Three – An interesting trend that has developed over the last 11 playoff seasons finds that conference finals Game Three teams that lost Game Two by double-digits are on a surge of 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%).

Home team Game Fours not down 0-3 are strong plays – Home teams not facing elimination in Game Four have fared very well of late, going 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%). However, Dallas did lose Game Four a year ago, trying to close out at Minnesota.

Teams facing elimination already in Game Four have generally laid down – Conference finals Game Four teams that are facing elimination have gone just 3-6 SU and 4-4-1 ATS (50%) in their last nine tries. However, Indiana was able to get an ATS win versus Boston last year.

Home teams that won Game Three are also good Game Four bets – Conference finals hosts that won Game Three are also on a 7-3 SU and ATS (70%) run in Game Four. 

Simply put, the better seeds win Game Fives– The better-seeded teams have dominated the Game Five action in conference finals series’ of late, going 13-5 SU and ATS (72.2%) since 2013. In all 18 of those games, the outright winner covered the point spread as well. 

Favorites are on a huge Game Five run – Teams laying the points have gone 14-4 SU and ATS (77.8%) in conference finals’ Game Fives. 

The team that lost Game Four is a solid Game Five play – Teams that lost Game Four are on a 12-6 SU and ATS (66.7%) run in Game Five of the conference finals.

Game Fives with closeout implications have been high-scoring – Since 2016, conference finals Game Fives have gone 7-1 Over (85.7%) when one of the teams attempts to close out the series, with games producing 225.4 PPG.

Game Sixes have trended Over the total – Eight of the last 13 conference finals Game Sixes have gone Over the total (61.5%).

Teams have capitalized on Game Six closeout opportunities – Four of the last six conference finals teams attempting to close out a series have won SU while going 5-1 ATS (83.3%). Two of the wins were outright upsets. 

Game Sevens have trended Under – All six Game Sevens over the last 11 seasons have gone Under the total, by a margin of 17.6 PPG! 

Game Six wins haven’t provided momentum for Game Seven – Teams that won Game Six to force a Game Seven have gone only 3-3 SU and ATS (50%) in the last six series deciding contests.

#1 seeds struggle as small favorites and/or underdogs – In their last 39 conference finals games when playing as underdogs or favorites of 4.5 points or less, #1 seeds are just 16-27 SU and 17-25-1 ATS (40.5%). 

Lay the wood with #1 seeds – Top-seeded teams have been stellar at covering big point spreads, going 28-3 SU and 18-13 ATS (58.1%) in the conference finals when favored by 6.5 points or more. 

#1 seeds thrive after close wins – Top seeded teams are on a 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) conference finals run when coming off a same series single-digit win.

#1 seeds are solid bets late in a series – In their last 20 Games Five, Six and Seven, #1 seeds are 14-9 SU and ATS (60.9%), with outright winners going a perfect 23-0 ATS in those games. 

#2 seeds are solid chalk wagers – Conference finals #2 seeds are on a 31-15 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) run as favorites. 

#2 seeds are tempting as large dogs, but they have struggled – #2 seeded teams are on a slide of 3-19 SU and 6-16 ATS as underdogs of 5 points or more in the conference finals series over the last 10 years.

#3/4 seeds are solid in the big favorite role – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds are on an 11-7 SU and ATS (61.1%) run as favorites of 3.5 points or more. That said, Minnesota lost three straight games outright in this role last year. 

#3/4 seeds in any other line scenario have floundered of late – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds when not favored by 3.5 points or more have struggled terribly of late, going 8-25 SU and 11-20-2 ATS (35.5%) since 2016. Similarly, they are just 9-16 ATS (36%) in their last 25 road conference finals games. 

#3/4 seeds have bounced back well from losses – Conference finals #3 and #4 seeds have responded well after losing a same series game, going 16-14 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%) in their last 30 tries. 

Teams seeded #5 or worse have only won a single CF game when favored since prior to 2013 – Teams seeded #5 or lower are have gone 1-7 SU and ATS (12.5%) in their last eight games of the conference finals when favored. 

Teams seeded #5 or worse have been phenomenal underdogs in the conference finals – Teams seeded #5 or lower have gone 13-14 SU and 20-7 ATS (70%) in their last 27 tries in the underdog role, including 6-1 ATS last year. 

#3 and lower seeded teams struggle to put back-to-back wins together – Teams seeded #3 seeds or worse and coming off a win in a conference finals series game are just 9-19 SU and 9-18-1 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest. 

Road teams looking to close out series have fared well – Nine of the last 11 teams looking to close out a conference finals series on the road have done so, going 9-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%).

Lay the points in closeout games – Conference finals teams looking to close out a series have gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS (76.9%) when favored by more than 4.5 points since 2013, outscoring opponents by 13.3 PPG. 

Closeout games have been definitive – There have been 39 different potential series closeout games in the conference finals in the last 12 seasons, and outright winners are 36-2-1 ATS.

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