We’ve endured another NBA regular season, and finally, the playoffs are upon us. Thankfully, there is probably no other league that changes more in the postseason than the regular season than the NBA. It is supposedly at this point that the individual stats, contract incentives, and perhaps even point spreads don’t tend to matter. Also, it can’t be overstated that if players can play, they usually will. Unlike the regular season, where injuries and workload days off run disturbingly rampant, you’ll typically get the best a team has to offer for every game. 

Considering that the playoffs drag on for two months or so, it essentially is a second season, and unfortunately, with the enhanced stakes as compared to the regular season, besides the things I just mentioned, there are a lot of other different factors that go into handicapping the proceedings. For one, with the series aspect, you have a situation where teams face one another up to seven consecutive times. This leads to a lot of ebb and flow, and thus, knowing how teams react to wins and losses at this time of year is key. Second, the crucial thing at this point is simply winning games. 

 

After what was a far from satisfying regular season, for most NBA apologists, this is the time of year when they are supposedly validated. For NBA bettors, it can be a tricky time as well, as they are finally getting to utilize trends and systems that come when teams are playing with equal motivation. One of the things that I feel is most important when analyzing the games over the next couple of months is to arm yourself with logic-based historical trends and systems from recent playoff action. In this article, the first of what will be a round-based series, I am going to help uncover some of that information, sharing some of the most prominent recent betting data that has affected the NBA playoffs, in particular the first round. I will be doing this same type of analysis for each of the rounds as the postseason progresses. Look for the second-round analysis in a couple of weeks.

Note that all of these trends will be qualified daily for all VSiN Pro Subscribers on our Daily NBA Analytics Reports. 

Looking back quickly at some recent playoff results, one should first acknowledge the success of outright winners in postseason games. In fact, after last year’s 75-12-1 ATS record for outright winners, they are now on a five-year run of 376-45-6 ATS, a winning percentage of 89.3%. The numbers are noticeably lower in a league like the NFL for the playoffs. With that noted, if you believe an underdog has a chance to cover a point spread, you should also consider their ability to win outright as well. Alternatively, rather than buying lines down or backing favorites on money lines, laying the actual point spread has proven a better strategy. In addition, for those interested in overall home/road trends in recent playoff action, note that hosts are 203-141 SU and 175-167-2 ATS (51.2%) in the last four postseasons, noteworthy since those are the four “normal” postseasons since the league orchestrated its playoffs in “the bubble” at Orlando in 2020. 

Let’s get right into breaking down the opening round. For the many people who believe this round is far too prolonged and even a waste of time, there have been 19 lower-seeded teams to advance in the last 12 years of the playoffs, including six of them over the last two years! I think this stems a lot from teams not really showing everything in the regular season any longer, and caring only about making the postseason, not the seeding.

That said, 12 of the 19 “upsets” were #5 seeds beating #4s, and five others being #6s over #3s. Two years ago was the first time that we saw a #2 (Memphis) lose to a #7 (LA Lakers) or a #1 (Milwaukee) lose to a #8 (Miami). Prior to that, the last “seed upset” of that magnitude came in 2012 when #8 Philadelphia knocked out #1 Chicago. Thus, the chances of #1s Cleveland and Oklahoma City, or #2s Boston or Houston going out early are minimal.

Accurately spotting potential “upsets” is a good start to making profits in your postseason wagering. Hopefully, some of what I unveil coming up will help you do that. Even if not, there are still plenty of other key systems that should assist in navigating the first-round action, not only by series, but on a game-by-game basis as well. 

Series Trends

Being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis as well, but perhaps equally important is being able to find the heavier underdogs that wind up being more competitive than expected and push the favorites to the limit in series. Of course, vice versa can be equally profitable, finding favorites that will sweep through a first round series easily. Take a look at some of these series trends based on won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season. 

·   There have been 18 first round sweeps over the last 11 playoff seasons, with three coming by lesser-seeded teams. Interestingly, in nine of the 15 favored sweeps, the better-seeded team had a worse ATS record over the last half season, and 11 of them had even or lesser ATS records in the last 20-game time periods. In other words, ignore any late-season ATS trend data that might have you considering a potential upset or longer series. In many cases, these better teams spend the last quarter regular season on cruise control, more interested in ensuring health than winning and covering games. If you’re looking at this trend through the 2025 lens, Cleveland will have this potential sweep edge over Atlanta, Miami, or Chicago. Indiana has it over Milwaukee, and Denver has it over the Clippers.

·   There is actually a better chance that a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series goes longer if the better seed had a better ATS record in the latter parts of the season. In fact, in 14 of the last 18 series of these seed types that went six or seven games, the better seed had an even or better record in the last 10-game time period, including Philadelphia versus New York last year. The team that could be pushed deeper because of this trend in 2025 would be Oklahoma City, as the Thunder has the best ATS record in the league in the last 10 games, 8-2 ATS.

·   The last 10 games outright records can also indicate a #1-#8 or #2-#7 series that could go longer. In eleven of the last 18 matchups of those seeds to go six games or longer, the worse seed had an equal or better record in the last 10 games of the regular season. This also affected New York versus Philadelphia in 2024. A Cleveland matchup versus Miami or Chicago would qualify, as does the Houston matchup with Golden State.

·   In 14 of the last 15 #4-5 and #3-6 series that ended in upsets (worse-seeded team winning), the teams had overall won-lost records within four games of one another. This was the case in both upsets a year ago. For 2025, this is in play for all the series except New York-Detroit.

·   There has been a significant benchmark in the success of the lower-seeded team at 10 wins less than the opponent over the last 10 playoff years. If more than 10 regular season wins separate the teams, only Miami in 2023 has won a series, and the lesser seeds are averaging just 1.24 game wins per series, with eight sweeps in 33 series. Additionally, only four other teams pushed a series to seven games.  Boston has this edge over Orlando, as will OKC and Cleveland over all potential first round opponents.

·   When 10 or fewer wins have separated the teams, the worse-seeded team won an average of 2.33 games per series, including 16 of those 55 series wins. Only seven times did a team get swept, and only 11 other times did it win just a single game. The #5-#7 seeds in the West and the #6-#7 seeds in the East would appear to have the potential to each win at least two games in their respective series.

·   Only four of the last 28 playoff better seeds that won at least four more games against the spread in the regular season have lost a series. The 24 winning teams lost only 1.42 games per series as well. In essence, it is important that teams played well against the spread in the regular season. The Minnesota-Phoenix matchup was the only one that qualified last year. For 2025, the Lakers qualify for this versus the Timberwolves, plus OKC and Cleveland will qualify against anyone.

·   Using the records from the second half of the season has also revealed quality underdogs. When the worse-seeded team had an equal or better record in the second half of the season, they won 10 of last 20 series while going 64-56 outright in games! This is a very strong indicator of potential upsets. This included series wins Pacers and Mavericks last year. For 2025, Minnesota (vs. LA Lakers), the Clippers (vs. Denver), and Golden State (vs. Houston) would apply.

·   Alternatively, when there were five games or better records in the second half of the season for the better seed, all but one of 38 won their series while going 149-45 SU. Furthermore, only one other of the 38 worse-seeded teams pushed the series to seven games. Of course, the lone winner in this trend was Miami in 2023. Boston holds the edge over Orlando, as do Cleveland and Oklahoma City over all comers.

·   There is an interesting benchmark for worse-seeded teams at 48 wins (59%+) or more. Those that reach that regular season mark have gone 7-22 in series, and 71-98 (42%) in individual games over the last 11 postseasons. Those that have 58% or less (47-35 in full season) are just 10-49 in series and 101-212 (32.3%) in individual games. Here are the potential first round “underdogs” that won 48 games: Milwaukee, Golden LA Clippers, Minnesota, Golden State, Memphis.

·   Of the last 14 better seed sweeps, all 14 had better records in the second half of the season, only one had a worse record in the last 20 games, and only three won fewer of their last 10 games. According to this, Boston, New York and Oklahoma City have the best chance at first round sweeps, as they are the only teams with advantages over their opponents in all three varying time ranges. Cleveland would hold it over Atlanta if that winds up being the matchup.

First Round Game Trends by Line/Total Range

·   Big favorites have held a significant edge – Since the start of the 2014 playoffs, NBA first round favorites of 8.5 points or more are 89-14 SU and 62-41 ATS (60.2%).

·   Bigger road favorites are also a solid bet – Only 11 of the last 56 road favorites of 4.5 points or more have lost outright, going 45-11 SU and  37-18-1 ATS (67.3%).

·   First round home favorites of 4 points or less have proven to be a bad investment lately, as since 2014, they are just 41-36 SU and 32-44-1 ATS (42.1%).

·   The last three NBA first round playoffs saw 70 Unders, 58 Overs, 1 Push– (57%). However, last year’s totals were split 21-21-1 in round 1.

·   With the meteoric rise in scoring over the last few years in the NBA, it is interesting to note that in the lowest totaled first round playoff games over the last five postseasons, 218 or less, Under the total is 70-49-4 (58.8%). In all games with totals above 218, Over the total is 71-59-2 (54.6%).

Last Game Trends

·   Home teams are a better wager when coming off a win in a series – Home teams coming off a win in the prior game of a series are 79-46 SU and 65-60 ATS (52%) since 2016. Those coming off a loss are 86-71 SU and 72-82-3 ATS (46.7%) in that same span. Naturally, the latter are often the lower-seeded team in a series, but this 5.3% ATS swing is a good indication of how momentum aids a team.

·   Blowout losses carry over – There is a bit of a misconception when it comes to teams “bouncing back” from rough first round losses. In fact, teams that lost their previous game by 12 points or more are just 63-118 SU and 73-106-2 ATS (40.8%) in the next contest since 2013. This includes a 6-11 ATS mark last year.

·   Heartbreaking losses have a galvanizing effect – Teams that lose close games, or those decided by 3 points or less, in the first round of the NBA playoffs have bounced back with a 39-16 SU and 35-18-2 ATS (66%) mark in the next game since 2014. In the line range of +5 to -5, these teams are on an amazing 24-7 SU & 21-8-2 ATS (72.4%) surge! Of note, only nine of the last two seasons’ 86 first round games were decided by 3 points or fewer.

·   Teams that shoot 40% or less from the floor in a first round game have been lousy bets in the next contest, going 52-77-3 ATS (40.3%) since 2014.

·   Beware of teams that shoot the 3pt shot well in one game but still lose. Those that shot 40.0% or better on 3-point shots but still lost have gone just 16-33-1 ATS (32.7%) in the next contest since 2016 in the first round.

First Round Trends by Game Number

·   Nearly three of every four home teams win opening game – Home teams have gone 63-25 SU and 48-40 ATS (54.5%) over the last 12 seasons. They were 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in 2024!

·   Game 1 home favorites with lines of 5.5 points or less have improved a lot in recent years, going 20-9 SU and 17-12 ATS (58.6%) since 2015. They were once considered prime potential upset victims.

·   In the last five playoff seasons played at home courts, Game Ones have gone Under the total at a 27-13 (65.6%) rate.

·   Over the last eight non-neutral playoff seasons, first round Game Two hosts are on a 51-13 SU and 44-20 ATS (68.8%) run! Prior to last year’s 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS performance, they were on a 27-5 SU and ATS surge.

·   Opening game home winners are, of course, also a solid Game Two bet – Contrary to popular “yin-and-yang” bettors’ beliefs, home teams that won in Game One of a first round series are 35-10 SU and 31-14 ATS (68.9%) since 2016.

·   Game Twos with double-digit home favorites have gone Under the total at a 14-4 (77.8%) clip since 2013, with only six of the visiting foes eclipsing 100 points. However, Miami (+14.5) did pull an outright upset against Boston in a 111-101 Over last year.

·   First round Game Three home teams are just 15-25 SU and 16-24 ATS (40%) since 2019.

·   The better Game Three home teams are those coming off a win in Game Two. They are 11-10 SU and 9-12 ATS (42.9%) in their last 21 tries, while those that lost in Game Two are on an 11-20 SU and 13-18 ATS (41.9%) skid.

·   Game Three point spreads most often tell the story, as hosts of 4.5 points or more are on a 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) stretch since 2013, while home dogs of 4.5 points or more are just 3-17 SU and 7-12-1 ATS (36.8%) in that same span.

·   Since you’re probably wondering at this point, Game Three home teams in the +4 to -4 line range are currently on a brutal skid of 8-19 SU and 7-19-1 ATS (26.9%) since 2017.

·   Game Four home teams in the +3 to -3 line range have fared well recently, going 20-10 SU and 20-9-1 ATS (69%) since 2013.

·   Game Four home underdogs of 3.5 points or more are just 10-28 SU and 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) since 2013.

·   Teams down 0-3 in a first round series are just 12-24 SU and 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%) in their last 36 Game Four tries.

·   Game Fives have belonged to the home teams over the last four non-neutral court playoff seasons. However, they have been close shaves, as these teams are 35-11 SU (just 22-24 ATS – 47.8%) since 2017.

·   Non-neutral Game Fives have been defensively focused of late, going 24-16 Under the total (60%) since 2018, with road teams putting up just 104.5 PPG.

·   Outright winners have been incredibly proficient against the point spread in Game Sixes, going 30-2 ATS (93.8%) since 2015.

·   Game Sixes have usually been road domination – Road teams in NBA first round Game Sixes are 27-16 SU and 30-13 ATS (69.8%) in the last 12 seasons. However, they were just 1-3 SU and ATS last year. Defense is usually the key, as Under the total in 26-17 (60.5%) in those contests.

·   Road teams looking to close out a series in Game Six of the first round are 19-8 SU and ATS (70.4%) in their last 27 tries. Outright winners are 27-0 ATS in those games.

·   Game Sevens are usually competitive – Every fan loves a big Game Seven, and NBA fans should even more, as although the first-round Game Sevens have gone heavily to the favorites (14-4 SU), they are just 7-10-1 ATS (41.2%) in those 18 do-or-die contests.

·   Much to my surprise, 11 of the last 16 (68.8%) first round Game Sevens have gone Over the total.

Trends by Seed Number

·   #1 seeds are good bets when underrated – #1 seeds when in the small favorite (-2.5 or less) or underdog role are 10-7 SU and ATS (58.8%) since 2013 in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 12-5 Under the total (70.6%) in those games.

·   #1 seeds are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) in their last 13 first round games when trailing in a series.

·  #1 seeds close out series…period. They are 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in their last 24 first round playoff closeout tries. This is a big reason they haven’t been pushed to a Game Seven since 2014.

·   #2 seeds have been crazy good as bigger chalk – #2 seeded teams are on a strong run of 69-16 SU and 53-32 ATS (62.4%) when favored by 4.5 points or more.

·   #2 seeds start fast – #2 seeded teams are on a run of 39-7 SU and 30-16 ATS (65.2%) in the first two games of first round series over the last 12 years.

·   #2 seeds have also bounced back quickly from losses, 21-3 SU and 18-6 ATS (75%) in their last 24.

·   #3 seeds bounce back on the road after losses – Third-seeded teams are on a run of 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) on the road after losing the prior game in a first round series.

·   #4 seeds have been brutal in Games Three and Four, with a 15-33 SU and 17-30-1 ATS (36.2%) record in such games of their first round series since 2013.

·   #4 seeds have tended to stack losses, as they are just 28-34 SU and 22-40 ATS (35.5%) since 2013 in the same series games following a loss.

Trends by teams closing out series or facing elimination

·   Big road favorites of 5 points or more looking to close out series are money, showing a record of 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2013 postseason.

·   Small favorites/underdogs closing out series’ have also been solid of late – teams attempting to close out a series in a non-Game Seven scenario and playing as underdogs or favorites of 2 points or less are on a 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%) run in their last 20 tries.

·   Teams getting a second (or third) closeout opportunity after losing the prior chance are 26-10 SU but 14-20-2 ATS (41.2%) in their last 36 tries.

First Round Game Scoring Trends

·   Success in first round games comes with topping the 117-point mark, as teams that have scored 118 points or more are on a 113-28 SU and 112-29 ATS (79.4%) run over the last six postseasons. These teams were 15-1 SU and ATS in 2024, with the only loss coming in a 121-118 decision in which both teams met the magic scoring mark.·   In terms of points allowed, 99 points is the key benchmark. Teams that have allowed 98 points or fewer in the last six first round playoff seasons are 95-16 SU and 92-17-2 ATS (84.4%).

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