We’re rapidly approaching the business end of the 2024-25 NBA season. Teams are starting to really fight for seeding in both conferences, and we have a clear picture of how certain races are shaping up when it comes to season-long awards. With that in mind, this feels like a great time to dive into some of the unsettled markets. Keep reading for some analysis on how things look when it comes to Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year and Clutch Player of the Year. The only market you won’t see below is Coach of the Year, as Kenny Atkinson is a sizable favorite over JB Bickerstaff and it’s difficult to imagine anything changing there.
Most Valuable Player Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-500)
- Nikola Jokic (+350)
We have a two-man race for the MVP award the rest of the way, and some will tell you that it’s not even much of a debate. After all, Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds to win are -556 at one prominent shop. The gap here is also just as wide as the Coach of the Year race, which is one I’m not particularly interested in.
It’s hard to fault anybody that likes Gilgeous-Alexander. The 26-year-old is averaging 32.4 points, 6.2 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game this season. He’s also shooting 52.4% from the floor, 36.4% from 3 and 89.3% from the line. On top of that, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, and he’s a legitimate contender in the DPOY race. He has just been remarkable for a Thunder team that is 47-11 and sits atop the Western Conference standings. Several key metrics also happen to have Gilgeous-Alexander as the most impactful player in basketball, as he’s first in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (+8.7) and Estimated Wins (15.7). He’s also first in the NBA in Defensive Win Shares (3.9).
In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander having a legitimate case, there’s also the fact that he has never won before. That means something in the minds of voters — even if it really shouldn’t.
Despite all of that, it’s still hard not to like Jokic at +375. While the Dunks & Threes metrics favor Gilgeous-Alexander, Basketball-Reference is coming up all Joker. The three-time league MVP — and last year’s winner — is first in the league in Offensive Win Shares (10.0), Win Shares (12.8), Win Shares Per 48 (.328), Offensive Box Plus-Minus (10.6), Box Plus-Minus (14.0) and VORP (7.6). That last one’s a big one.
Jokic’s traditional numbers are also otherworldly. The 30-year-old is averaging career-highs in points (29.2), assists (10.4) and steals (1.8) per game. He’s also shooting a career high in 3-point percentage (44.5%), and he’s doing it on a career high in 3-point attempts (4.5).
This all sets up for a somewhat awkward situation. Gilgeous-Alexander would have a great case in most years, but are we really going to deprive a three-time MVP in a career-best season? That seems a bit odd.
Jokic also happens to be dragging a relatively weak supporting cast to relevancy. Denver let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency last summer, and the team did very little to replace him. The Nuggets simply brought in Russell Westbrook and hoped for internal improvement from some of their young pieces. Well, Westbrook ended up hitting as a low-risk gamble, but Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon looked like shells of themselves for half of the season. But where is Denver when you look at the standings? Oh, just 38-20 and right in the mix for second place in the West. No big deal.
In the end, voter fatigue will probably get the best of Jokic, but a small play at +375 feels like a no-brainer. If Denver ultimately does end up second in the Western Conference, Jokic will at least make this very interesting.
Rookie of the Year Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Stephon Castle (-140)
- Jaylen Wells (+400)
- Kel’el Ware (+900)
- Zaccharie Risacher (13-1)
- Alexandre Sarr (20-1)
- Zach Edey (20-1)
- Donovan Clingan (40-1)
- Matas Buzelis (40-1)
- Isaiah Collier (50-1)
- Carlton Carrington (60-1)
I have quite a few tickets in this market. I’m holding Castle (10-1), Sarr (13-1) and Risacher (16-1) at great numbers, and I also have a miserable number on Ware (+135) and another on the Heat big man at 12-1. So, I already have some rooting interests here.
While Castle has mostly been great this season, he just scored a total of six points on 2 for 14 shooting in a two-game set against the Pelicans. He’s not a player that consistently shows up, so I wouldn’t want to be backing him as an odds-on favorite. Also, while Wells is having a nice season as a starter for a very good Memphis team, he’s another up-and-down player. He’s hot as of right now, but he can go four or five games without doing much of anything. And overall, it’d be a little odd for him to win in such a small role. Having said that, he is a good 3-point shooter and sturdy defender. So, as somebody that values winning, I wouldn’t hate seeing him claim it in a weak year.
Risacher is an interesting play at 16-1 at BetMGM. The No. 1 pick in the draft is averaging 12.8 points per game on 48.1% shooting from the floor, 45.5% shooting from 3 and 82.6% shooting from the charity stripe in the month of February. He’s starting to regularly reach double figures in scoring, and he’s taking advantage of Jalen Johnson being out for the season — and De’Andre Hunter having been traded to the Cavaliers. The only thing really holding him back is inconsistent minutes, and we might never see a full commitment to get Risacher 30 minutes per night. Atlanta is in the Play-In Tournament right now, and that isn’t changing anytime soon.
I also wouldn’t hate anybody joining me on Ware at 12-1, which is what BetMGM has him at. I made a bit of a rookie move myself in taking him in the middle of a late-January hot streak. Ware had been lighting it up from 3 and looking like an absolute beast, and I was nervous about getting stuck with nothing in a market I have handicapped pretty well. But Ware cooled down quite a bit as a scorer after that. He’s actually a miserable 3 for 20 from deep in the month of February. But Ware is still averaging 9.2 points, 10.4 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game this month, and he’s starting for a Heat team that is in the postseason picture in the East. So, if Ware ever does find some consistency as a shooter, he could get himself back into the mix. I’m also not sure there’s another rookie being asked to do as much as he is for a team in playoff contention right now.
Most Improved Player Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Cade Cunningham (-240)
- Norman Powell (+220)
- Tyler Herro (16-1)
- Dyson Daniels (50-1)
- Evan Mobley (50-1)
- Christian Braun (80-1)
- Amen Thompson (80-1)
- Jalen Williams (100-1)
- Max Christie (140-1)
It’s starting to feel like Cunningham is sprinting towards the finish line here, as there are some sportsbooks that have him at -250. Cunningham went from averaging 22.7 points, 7.5 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game for a miserable team in 2023-24 to putting up 25.7 points, 9.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds per game for a Detroit team that is currently sixth in the East. He has also been a little more efficient as a scorer this year, and he made the leap to becoming an All-Star. A lot of people want to reward him for that.
It’s also worth noting that Powell, one of Cunningham’s main competitors in this market, will need to play 20 of the final 23 games just to stay eligible for the award. That’s another reason the odds have been moving for Cunningham.
I wish I got in on this a little sooner, as I do think it’ll be Cunningham that ends up in the winner’s circle. Kelley Bydlon, co-host of A Number Game, has been pushing for Cunningham all year. But unless you’re parlaying it with something else, I’m not sure the price is right. Cunningham still has to hold off Powell, Herro and Mobley.
If anything, Herro might be worth a shot at 22-1. He made a very similar leap to the one Cunningham did, but he did it in his sixth season in the league. That is arguably more impressive than an expected jump from a former No. 1 pick. Herro is up from 20.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game in 2023-24 to 24.0 points, 5.7 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game in 2024-25. Also, it’s not completely outrageous to think that Herro still has time to get Miami into the playoffs. The Heat have the second-easiest schedule in the NBA in their final 25 games, according to Positive Residual.
Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Evan Mobley (+125)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. (+150)
- Dyson Daniels (+700)
- Luguentz Dort (12-1)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (30-1)
- Jalen Williams (50-1)
- Ivica Zubac (50-1)
- Draymond Green (70-1)
- Amen Thompson (80-1)
- Rudy Gobert (100-1)
- Bam Adebayo (100-1)
This is suddenly the most intriguing award to monitor moving forward. Victor Wembanyama was well on his way to winning before being diagnosed with a blood clot in his shoulder, and he was up to -2500 to win this thing before being ruled out for the season. Now, the oddsmakers have Jackson Jr. and Mobley as the two betting favorites. Those two represent your traditional rim-protecting bigs that defend the back line for very good teams. However, it is a little hard to be impressed with either one so far.
While Jackson Jr. is fifth in the league in stocks (steals + blocks) per game (2.95), Memphis has been sliding when it comes to adjusted defensive efficiency. The team also hasn’t been great when it comes to covering opposing bigs. Meanwhile, Mobley is just 13th in the league in stocks (2.46) per game, and Cleveland is just eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Also, Jarrett Allen does a lot of the dirty work when it comes to interior defending for the Cavaliers.
Honestly, this just feels like it’s wide open right now. Sure, Jackson Jr. or Mobley can still go on to win, but this is a market in which it makes sense to throw some darts.
I was high on Daniels in the 20-1 range after hearing the Wembanyama news, but the best you can do is +750 now. So, it might be a little too late to grab the league’s leader in steals per game (3.1) and steals percentage (4.2%).
However, I do think it might be worth throwing a little something on Gilgeous-Alexander. I don’t even think the Oklahoma City superstar is one of the best five defenders on his own team, but I already mentioned that he’s first in the league in Defensive Win Shares (3.9). He’s also second in the NBA in steals per game (1.9) and seventh in steals percentage (2.6), and he’s doing that for a Thunder team that is historically good defensively — and first in the NBA in adjusted defensive efficiency.
If Jokic does somehow pass Gilgeous-Alexander in the MVP running, you just can’t rule out the possibility of voters looking to give the Canadian some due in the awards market. So, while he might have teammates that would be more deserving, that’s the angle I’m coming at this from.
Sixth Man of the Year Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Payton Pritchard (-175)
- Malik Beasley (+350)
- De’Andre Hunter (+650)
- Naz Reid (12-1)
- Amen Thompson (35-1)
- Ty Jerome (60-1)
- Russell Westbrook (60-1)
- Santi Aldama (75-1)
- Aaron Wiggins (150-1)
Pritchard has been at the top of the board for most of the year. The 27-year-old is averaging 14.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game for Boston this season, and he’s shooting 47.1% from the floor, 41.3% from 3 and 83.9% from the line. The guard is just an awesome source of offense off the Celtics bench, and he’s a big part of the reason this team is still the class of the Eastern Conference. Honestly, on nights when this Boston team looks a little uninterested, Pritchard tends to bring some fire and help the team refocus. So, his role on this team can’t possibly be overstated.
It does, however, feel premature to call this market. Too many of the players involved are playing well, with Jerome being the one that really comes to mind. Jerome is averaging 21.7 points per game over his last three games, taking advantage of Darius Garland being out. And that’s exactly what a great sixth man should be able to do. Performing like a starter when called upon is part of the job. And overall, Jerome is averaging 11.8 points, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game for the Cavaliers, and he’s doing it on 52.2% shooting from the floor, 44.4% shooting from 3 and 88.1% shooting from the free throw line. He’s just a massive part of a Cleveland team that currently has the best record in basketball.
Using Dunks & Threes’ “Compare” tool also happens to show that Jerome has a higher Estimated Plus-Minus (+3.4) than the four guys at the top of the odds board. That includes Pritchard, who has a higher OEPM but a lower DEPM. Overall, Jerome stacks up quite nicely. So, with 70-1 floating out there, it might be worth putting some pizza money down on him. If Jerome has a few more big performances on national television, he’ll start to get some love.
Clutch Player of the Year Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate at time of publish. Shop around for the best price!
- Jalen Brunson (+135)
- Nikola Jokic (+220)
- Trae Young (+350)
- Darius Garland (30-1)
- Jayson Tatum (30-1)
- Anthony Edwards (30-1)
- Tyrese Maxey (30-1)
- DeMar DeRozan (30-1)
- De’Aaron Fox (30-1)
- Stephen Curry (100-1)
It might not seem like a good “value play” to grab Brunson at +135 odds, but I’m actually surprised he’s not an odds-on favorite here. Brunson is averaging the most points per game (5.5) of anybody that has played at least 20 games that triggered crunch time (five-point game in final five minutes). He’s also shooting a ridiculous 51.4% from the floor in the 21 clutch games the Knicks have played, and New York is 14-7 in those contests.
There are other guys that do special things in the final minutes of close games, with Maxey and Young coming to mind. But Philadelphia is just 11-12 in crunch time games this season and Atlanta is 15-15. Also, Young hasn’t been nearly as efficient as Brunson.
In my opinion, Jokic is the biggest threat to Brunson. He constantly puts Denver on his back late in big games, and the Nuggets are right there with the Knicks when it comes to record (13-9). Also, if Gilgeous-Alexander wins MVP, voters might want to give something to Jokic. But I’m just not sure anybody has been as clutch as Brunson at this point in the year, making him a good play at plus-money odds. And given the recent slip we have seen from New York, there will surely be more games in which the team rolls the ball out to Brunson and leans on him to get the Knicks home.
