NBA Best Bets for Friday, March 29th
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 108-102-3 | Units: -1.55 | ROI: -0.7%
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5, 210)
Donovan Mitchell will likely make his return tonight for Cleveland. That is obviously huge for the Cavaliers, as the team is going to have its entire starting five on the floor for the first time in a month. Mitchell’s upgrade to questionable is why this total jumped to 212 from the open, but this is a game that is worth betting under.
First and foremost, both of these teams are slow. Cleveland is 27th for the season in pace (97.54). The Cavaliers have also slowed their pace – as has the entire league – in the last two months. Since the All-Star break they are averaging just 94.87 possessions per game. Philadelphia is averaging just 96.11 possessions per game since Joel Embiid’s injury, and only 94.11 per game since the break.
Cleveland has also been starting Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen together again. With those two on the floor the Cavaliers limit opponents to 110.4 points per 100 possessions while averaging just 110.8 on the other end.
Philadelphia has been hurting on offense for some time, especially since inserting Kyle Lowry into the starting lineup. The 76ers average just 110.6 points per 100 possessions with Lowry and Tyrese Maxey on the floor. However, their defense has been much better with a backcourt defender like Lowry. In those possessions they have allowed just 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
Mitchell’s return should obviously help the offensive output for Cleveland. But, the team still struggles on offense due to poor spacing. Those struggles, combined with the expected pace and improved defensive lineups for Philadelphia should be enough to keep this game under the total.
Best Bet: UNDER 212.5 – Playable to 211.5
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat (-14.5, 207)
Jimmy Butler missed Miami’s loss to Golden State with a non-COVID illness, but he should be back on the floor tonight. If he does play one could make the argument this is the most complete the Heat have been in a long time. Kevin Love is expected to return from his 14-game absence tonight, and both Jaime Jaquez and Caleb Martin are listed as probable.
Portland is not as fortunate with its injury report. Deandre Ayton and Matisse Thybulle could play tonight, but Jerami Grant is doubtful. Portland started five rookies last time out against Atlanta and failed to cover as a 10-point underdog. Ayton and Thybulle will help on the defensive end, but the Trail Blazers will still be searching for offense against an elite defensive team tonight.
No matter who is on the floor, the Heat limit shots at the rim. Miami has allowed the second-fewest shots within four feet of the basket and the second-fewest points in the paint (46.2). Portland takes a majority of its shots at the rim (34.3%) and will likely struggle to get there tonight. That could mean a higher volume of mid-range attempts and 3-point attempts for a team which ranks 30th (39.3%) and 22nd (35.8%) in shooting from those two areas respectively.
The Heat have the rest advantage tonight, and they are expected to have their role players back on the floor. Miami has nine games left and sits just a game out of sixth in the Eastern Conference. It only holds a half-game lead over Philadelphia. This should be a focused effort from the home team from the jump. To offset the variance of Portland sneaking back into the number on the backend I’ll play the first half.
Best Bet: Heat 1H (-8)
NBA Best Bets
76ers/Cavaliers UN 212.5
Heat 1H (-8)
