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NBA Best Bets
Record: 99-83-2 | Units: +10.2 | ROI: 5.1%
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-3.5, 227)
Washington is 0-16 SU/6-10 ATS in its last 16 games. Charlotte is 5-9 SU/10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 contests. Given their recent forms, it is easy to see why the market is moving in the Hornets’ direction. As someone who has been on Charlotte quite a bit during this run, it was my initial thought as well. However, a deep dive into this matchup pulled me in a different direction.
One thing that has stuck out about the Hornets’ run is their improvement on defense. They have limited opponents to 111.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Their defense has limited shots at the rim, and opponents have shot just 33.3% from beyond the arc. That last metric is where we run into a problem.
Charlotte is experiencing some solid luck when it comes to opponent shooting. Only a third of their opponents’ attempts from deep are going down. That is despite allowing 24.1 uncontested 3-point attempts per game. It helps when opposing shooters only hit 36.7% on those attempts. Washington could exploit that. The Wizards are a below average shooting team, but they do take 35.3% of their attempts from deep. They’re also decent enough to take advantage of open looks – they shoot 39.6% on uncontested looks this season.
On the other end, Washington is a terrible defensive team. Opponents shoot 71.9% at the rim, and their center position is a nightmare right now. Marvin Bagley is out with injury, which means Richaun Holmes will likely start. With Holmes at center, the Wizards have a 123.1 defensive rating and opponents shoot 81.2% in the restricted area.
We should also get an increase in pace here with Washington playing at home. Charlotte has slowed down in recent weeks, but they will be willing to get out in transition if given the opportunity.
So, this all leads to playing this game over the total. It is at odds with the market which is down to 225 at a few shops, but I am willing to take the risk. Those shaping the market might be buying into the Hornets’ defensive turnaround, but we see some evidence that it is not as good as it seems. In fact, we saw the Magic – a poor shooting team – hit 13-of-34 attempts in a win the other day.
Best Bet: OVER 225 – Playable to 226.5
NBA Best Bets
Hornets/Wizards OV 225
Remaining Games
New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5, 225) at Philadelphia 76ers
It doesn’t get much more negative for a team than what Philadelphia is experiencing today. The 76ers fell to 6-10 SU/5-11 ATS since Joel Embiid’s injury after they lost to the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Philadelphia now plays its fifth game in eight days – third in four nights – against New Orleans. The Pelicans come into this game after two days of rest, and with a 3-1 SU and ATS record in its last four games. It is hard to make a case for the 76ers tonight, especially with Tyrese Maxey on the bench once more with a concussion. The market has fully accounted for all this, and bettors looking to fade Philadelphia are paying a hefty tax. Look for an in-game opportunity here to get a better price on New Orleans.
*Minnesota Timberwolves (-1, 209.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers
This has the potential to be a “schedule loss” for Minnesota. The Timberwolves are playing their fourth game in six days on no rest. They are also coming off a wild contest in Indiana in which Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert had to play 40 minutes to pull off a victory. Edwards himself was insane, going 18-of-35 from the floor for 44 points and an insane block of Aaron Nesmith to seal the win. Having said that, Cleveland is still without Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus and Evan Mobley tonight. The situation is a massive negative for Minnesota, but they are good enough defensively to stymie a limited offensive opponent.
Orlando Magic at New York Knicks (-1.5, 208.5)
Jalen Brunson is questionable to play due to the knee injury suffered against Cleveland on Sunday. It has been reported that the Knickerbockers are “hopeful” he returns from injury tonight, but until it is confirmed bettors must exercise caution. If he does play, his workload will be fascinating to watch. Tom Thibodeau loves to run his players into the ground – Miles McBride and Josh Hart played over 45 minutes in that game against the Cavaliers – but we could see a light minutes load for Brunson in his first game back. New York does have a massive rest advantage though. The team has played once since that game on Sunday, while Orlando is playing its fourth game in six days.
Atlanta Hawks (-3, 215) at Memphis Grizzlies
Atlanta took a 22-point lead in the third quarter of its win over Cleveland on Wednesday night, but immediately blew it and needed to hang on for a win. The Hawks are now 4-2 SU and ATS since losing Trae Young to injury, but they are hardly trustworthy. Injuries are starting to pile up as well. Onyeka Okongwu also remains sidelined with a toe injury, and Jalen Johnson was lost to an ankle sprain in that meeting with Cleveland. With those injuries it’s hard to ask this team to win by margin, even against the lowly Memphis Grizzlies. The market seems to agree, as this number is down a point across the board.
*Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder (-8, 225.5)
Miami has had a lengthy injury report every night for the entire season. On the second leg of a back-to-back, it would be foolish to jump in on this contest until the status of this roster is known. The Heat lost a tough one in Dallas last night. In that game Terry Rozier played 40 minutes, Jimmy Butler played 38 and Bam Adebayo played one fewer. It is plausible that on no rest – and fourth game in six days – that we see Miami sit a few key cogs. Oklahoma City has the rest advantage, but there is a small argument to be made that the Thunder are near their peak market value with a 1-3 ATS record in its last four games.
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers (-1, 236)
Those who were paying attention got some good CLV here. For some reason the market opened with Los Angeles as a favorite, despite Giannis Antetokounmpo being listed as probable and no other player of consequence on the injury report. Milwaukee got blasted in San Francisco the other night, but Golden State went 18-of-36 from deep in non-garbage time. That tends to lead to lopsided results. Anyone who thought it meant the Lakers should be favored were wrong. Now that the market has corrected itself, it’s hard to get involved. Los Angeles is clearly overvalued by the betting market right now, as it is 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS in its last eight games.
Houston Rockets (-4.5, 218.5) at Portland Trail Blazers
Seven players of consequence are listed on the injury report for Portland. Deandre Ayton and Scoot Henderson are doubtful – although that is an upgrade for Henderson who missed the last seven games. Toumani Camara and Jerami Grant are questionable. Shaedon Sharpe and Malcolm Brogdon remain out. There are better games and situations to sift through than this nonsense tonight.
