NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, December 18th
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Best Bets
Record: 36-27-1 | Units: +7.10u | ROI: 10.45%
Los Angeles Clippers (-3, 241) at Indiana Pacers
It’s safe to say the Clippers have figured out their new starting lineup. Los Angeles won its seventh consecutive game on Saturday night, and in the 15 games since Russell Westbrook moved to the bench the team is 12-3 SU/8-7 ATS with a +9.6 net rating in non-garbage time. The Clippers’ starting lineup has outscored opponents by 15.1 points per 100 possessions as well. Their offense is among the best in the league with this new configuration, and now they get to face one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Indiana fell to 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games after the loss to Minnesota on Saturday. Tyrese Haliburton missed that loss to the Timberwolves, but reports made it seem like more of a precaution than anything else and he should be available tonight. Haliburton obviously improves the chances of the Pacers winning any game, but he does not improve their defense. Indiana is 29th in non-garbage time defensive rating, and it is doing everything possible to catch Washington for last place. It lacks the size along the wing defensively to match up with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. There is no on-ball defender to stay with James Harden. It’s hard to see the Pacers containing what has been an improving offense.
It is somewhat risky to lay the points with Los Angeles this morning, only because the market will react to the news of Haliburton being active. However, it should not be a big enough move that causes me to lose out on multiple points of value. I also expect that the Clippers will have success against this porous halfcourt defense tonight. So, let’s get crazy and go with both Los Angeles on the side and Over their team total.
Plays: Clippers (-3) – Playable to (-4) || Clippers TT Over 123.5 (-115) – Playable to 124.5 (-115)
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks (-11, 243.5)
Detroit is in an absolutely miserable run right now, and it’s hard to find the positives for this team. The Pistons are 0-23 SU/4-18-1 ATS in their last 23 games and the deficits seem to be getting wider. They have been outscored by 16.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over this losing streak, and their offensive rating is the worst in the league by far (105.4). As many – including myself – have found out, trying to bet on this team to break out of this skid is the epitome of the falling knife idiom.
If there was a spot for Detroit to snap this skid it would be here against Atlanta. The Hawks have been abysmal themselves. In their last 19 games they are 6-13 SU/3-16 ATS with the fifth-worst non-garbage time defensive rating over that span (121.8). Seven of their last nine opponents have scored at least 125 points and 11 of those 19 games have gone over the total. With that in mind, it makes sense that the market would bet this game up from the opening total this morning.
It would also make sense to bet the Pistons here. The Hawks are an abysmal team that is 1-9 ATS at home and 2-10 ATS as a favorite this season. Their abysmal defense makes it nearly impossible to win by margin, even against some of the worst teams in the league. However, I promised that I would not bet on Detroit again this season, so I will try to take advantage of this spot in another way: The Pistons’ team total.
Detroit will be more than willing to keep pace with Atlanta when it runs – both teams rank inside the top 10 in pace this season – and this bloated spread gives us an advantage by having a lower bar to overcome when it comes to the Pistons’ team total. I’m not asking the Pistons to cover. I’m just asking the Pistons to score.
Play: Pistons TT Over 116.5 (-120) – Playable to 117.5 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-2, 220) at Miami Heat
Both Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are expected to return to the lineup for Miami tonight, and their presence is huge for a team that has been scuffling. The Heat are 4-3 SU/2-5 ATS since losing Adebayo to injury. Their defense has allowed 1.2 points per possession in the seven games without Adebayo, so there is no doubt his presence should bring the floor up for this team on that end of the floor. Herro will help their offense overall, but tonight specifically his presence should be perfect.
Minnesota loves to drop Rudy Gobert on defense in pick-and-rolls. It’s his specialty and the main reason why the Timberwolves are one of the best rim defenses in the NBA. Herro will help negate that with his strong mid-range game. He will be able to take advantage of the empty space allowed by Gobert’s drop and it should help Miami find some offense against one of the best defenses in the league. Adebayo helps in this regard as well, as the Heat love to run hand-offs at the top of the key with him, and that will bring defenders like Gobert out into space where they are uncomfortable.
Anthony Edwards is also questionable to play tonight, and if there was a time to get him some rest it would be on the road against an Eastern Conference opponent. It’s been disjointed for Miami lately, but this seems like a good matchup and spot to back them.
Play: Heat ML (+108) – Playable to (-115)
Best Bets
Clippers (-3)
Clippers TT OV 123.5 (-115)
Pistons TT OV 116.5 (-120)
Heat ML (+108)
