NBA: Best bets and analysis for Monday, February 26th

Jonathan Von Tobel (92-71-2 | Units: +16.00) gives his daily NBA best bets and analysis for Monday, February 26th

Feb 14, 2024; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies forward-center Jaren Jackson Jr. (13) reacts after a three-point basket during the second half against the Houston Rockets at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.

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Record: 92-71-2 | Units: +16.00 | ROI: 9.0%

Brooklyn Nets (-3, 216.5) at Memphis Grizzlies

Brooklyn is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in its last eight games. The latest meltdown came on Saturday, when the Nets were held to 0.854 points per possession in the second half of a 101-86 loss to the Timberwolves. In a game it led at the half, Brooklyn failed to cover as an 8.5-point underdog. The Nets are now 8-25 SU/8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 games, and untouchable as a favorite.

It’s not like the Grizzlies are playing like a dead team either. Memphis comes into Monday ranked eighth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (114.2). They give up even fewer points per 100 possessions at home (113.7). The Grizzlies are also in much better form in recent weeks.

Since Jan. 22, Memphis is 5-10 SU/10-5 ATS with wins over Miami, Orlando and Milwaukee. Taylor Jenkins has this team playing extremely hard, and young players like GG Jackson are showing real promise. I’ll take this team as a home underdog to Brooklyn any day of the week at this point.

Best Bet: Grizzlies ML (+105) – Playable to (-115)

NBA Best Bets

Grizzlies ML (+105)

Remaining Schedule

Toronto Raptors at *Indiana Pacers (-4, 247.5)

Indiana’s offense looked efficient as ever in the win over Dallas on Sunday. The Pacers averaged 1.279 points per possession and won by 22 points. They also held the Mavericks to just 1.057 points per possession. Indiana holding an opponent down defensively is unlikely to repeat itself, but scoring with efficiency against Toronto is likely. The Raptors are 26th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (120.6) since reconfiguring their roster, and 29th on the road (125.4). The market has pushed this total down despite the potential fireworks we could see, but the side is up to -6 for the Pacers. Bettors should also keep an eye on the injury report for Indiana. Tyrese Haliburton has popped up with a questionable designation in these spots as they manage his hamstring injury suffered earlier in the season.

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks (-9.5, 225.5)

New York was boat-raced in the second half of their loss to Boston on Saturday, but that was more about the matchup favoring the Celtics than it was about the Knicks. New York is perfectly capable of dispatching Detroit today, even without their injured players. The market seems to agree with that sentiment as well. This number is up to 11.5 at multiple shops as of this morning, so the value is gone from the Knicks’ side. Perhaps we wait for some market buyback to get in on the home team, but this number is long gone from playable.

Miami Heat at *Sacramento Kings (-5, 228.5)

Miami has a laundry list of injuries and suspensions to sift through tonight. Jimmy Butler, Nikola Jovic and Thomas Bryant are suspended after the dust-up in New Orleans over the weekend. Josh Richardson is out with injury. Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier and Orlando Robinson are all questionable to play. On the other end, the Kings are on the second leg of a back-to-back after a win over the Clippers last night. There are much better games to try and handicap than this mess of a contest.