HomeCollege BasketballBetting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Monday February 26th

    Betting Splits and CBB Sharp Money Picks for Monday February 26th

    Josh Appelbaum examines where smart money is leaning for Baylor-TCU and Drexel-Delaware.

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    Today a new week begins with a quality, but not quantity, 16-game College Basketball slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.

    In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a pair of notable College Basketball games tonight.

     

    6:30 p.m. ET: Drexel at Delaware (-2.5, 138)

    Drexel (17-11) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Hofstra 69-57. Similarly, Delaware (17-11) has dropped two of their last three games and just got rolled by Charleston 90-71. This line opened with Delaware listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Pros seem to think this opener was a bit short and have gotten down hard on Delaware, steaming the Blue Hens up from -1.5 to -2.5. Delaware is receiving 59% of spread bets but 79% of spread dollars, signaling modest public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor. Delaware has the better effective field goal percentage (52% vs 50%), two-point percentage (53% vs 50%) and does a better job taking care of the ball (86th vs 164th in turnover percentage). Ken Pom has Delaware winning by one point (69-68). As a result, bettors looking to back Delaware would be wise to consider the moneyline (-145) instead. Delaware is receiving 68% of moneyline bets but 88% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros liking the Blue Hens to win straight up. Delaware is 7-4 at home. Drexel is 5-10 on the road. This is also a revenge spot for Delaware, who lost to Drexel 86-67 on the road back in late January. Home favorites are 56-13 (81%) straight up in CAA conference play this season.

    9 p.m. ET: Baylor at TCU (-2.5, 148)

    Baylor (19-8, ranked 11th) has lost two straight games and just fell to Houston 82-76 in overtime. On the other hand, TCU (19-8) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Cincinnati 74-57. This line opened with TCU listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked TCU favored over 11th-ranked Baylor? If Baylor is the “better” team, why are they a dog getting points? If it looks too good to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Baylor. However, despite Baylor receiving 65% of spread bets this line has remained frozen at TCU -2.5. This signals sharp liability on TCU, with pros reluctant to drop the number for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian TCU backers. TCU is only receiving 35% of spread bets, making them the top contrarian play of the day in the most heavily bet game of the night. TCU is receiving 35% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros backing the home team in a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. TCU has the edge on defense, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency compared to 85th for Baylor. Ken Pom has TCU winning by one point (78-77), which means savvy bettors may prefer to play TCU on the moneyline (-145). TCU is receiving 31% of moneyline bets but 51% of moneyline dollars, indicating a sharp bet split on TCU to win the game straight up. TCU is 12-2 at home. Baylor is 3-4 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 26-14 (65%) straight up this season and 69-27 (72%) straight up since the start of last season. Home favorites are 55-17 (76%) straight up in Big 12 conference play this season.

    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum
    Josh Appelbaum is a Sports Betting Analyst at VSiN and has been working in the betting industry since 2011. He has been with VSiN since 2019, contributing data-driven articles to VSiN.com, hosting the Morning Bets and Market Insights Podcasts and appearing on VSiN and DraftKings programs such as Follow the Money, The Lombardi Line, Sharp Money and The Sweat. He is a contrarian bettor and also the author of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting.

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