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NBA Best Bets
Record: 90-69-2 | Units: +16.00 | ROI: 9.2%
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Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 226) at Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia got the outright win as an underdog on Friday night against Cleveland, but the larger sample size isn’t great for the 76ers. Since losing Joel Embiid to injury they are 4-6 SU and ATS with a -6.3 net rating in non-garbage time. In fairness, two of their four wins were over Cleveland, one of which came with Donovan Mitchell on the floor. However, in their six losses they posted a -15.0 net rating and averaged only 1.083 points per possession. That is the team I expect to show up this morning.
Milwaukee scored a massive win over Minnesota on Friday night, and in the process looked very sharp on the defensive end. The Bucks held the Timberwolves to 1.115 points per possession and forced a turnover on 14.6% of their offensive possessions. Milwaukee has an overwhelming size advantage here with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis rotating in the frontcourt. The rebounding battle should work in their favor in a big way.
This is just a play against Philadelphia. Milwaukee is still a team I have my reservations about, but this matchup works in their favor. The betting market moved against the Bucks on the overnight, but we are starting to see some buyback on the road team.
Best Bet: Bucks (-4.5) – Playable to (-6)
Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers (-1.5, 251)
As long as Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic are healthy the Dallas Mavericks are a team worth betting on. When both stars are on the floor the Mavericks outscore opponents by 9.6 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Their offensive rating in those minutes (123.2) ranks in the 94th percentile of all lineups with at least 100 possessions played.
In fact, Dallas’ current 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS run began when Irving returned from injury, and it continues tonight against Indiana.
Indiana is a solid team, but the tandem of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam is still very raw. The Pacers outscore opponents by 6.0 points per 100 possessions with those on the floor, but their defensive rating is still well below average (118.2). Aaron Nesmitih also remains sidelined with injury, so the team lacks a decent perimeter defender to throw at Irving in this contest.
The market has flipped here, but I still find value in this number. As someone who truly believes in Dallas and rates them extremely high when fully healthy, I will lay it on the road with the Mavericks. The swing through zero is also not as impactful with a line was just 1.5 on the other end when it opened.
Best Bet: Mavericks (-1) – Playable to (-2.5)
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz (-6, 241)
The Jazz fell to 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after an outright loss to the Hornets on Thursday as a 9.5-point favorite. Since the trades of Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio the team is 0-5 SU and ATS with a -14.1 net rating in non-garbage time. That is no coincidence, and until the market brings its rating down on Utah this will be a regular play for me.
San Antonio has also been playing well. It got the cover in Los Angeles on Friday night, and is 3-1 ATS in its last four games. Since the beginning of January the Spurs are only 6-19 SU but 15-10 ATS and fourth in cover margin (+3.1). In current form, these two teams are near equals to one another by my ratings, so the play is on the underdog.
Best Bet: Spurs (+7) – Playable to (+5)
Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3, 218.5)
This is a play similar to that of the one against Utah. Charlotte is a team that I believe to be worth betting on here in the last third of the season. The Hornets are 4-4 SU/6-2 ATS in their last eight games. The additions of Grant Williams, Tre Mann and Seth Curry have opened the floor up for this offense. Brandon Miller continues to grow his offensive game as the season continues, and Miles Bridges is his usual self on offense. It’s a team that is in fantastic form that is meeting a beat up contemporary tonight in Portland.
Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe all remain sidelined for the Trail Blazers which are 0-7 SU/2-5 ATS in their last seven contests. They have dropped their last five against the number, and failed to cover those by 9.7 points per game. The wheels seem to be falling off for Portland, something that is a regular occurrence at this point of the season. Give me the underdog tonight.
Best Bet: Hornets ML (+120)
NBA Best Bets
Bucks (-4.5)
Mavericks (-1.5)
Spurs (+7)
Hornets ML (+120)
Remaining Games
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns (-4, 237.5)
The injury report is crowded here, so bettors who want to get involved should exercise some caution. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable for Los Angeles. Phoenix has Eric Gordon listed as questionable while Bradley Beal is set to miss his fourth game with a hamstring injury. Jusuf Nurkic is also on the report, but he is considered probable. For the Lakers, the questionable designations for their stars is no surprise, but with James missing the game against the Warriors when play resumed it seems like this could be a true questionable tag. The market hasn’t done much with the side, but the total is up to 240.5 consensus as of this morning. Understandable considering neither team is likely stopping the other on defense, especially if James plays.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-11.5, 233.5) at Washington Wizards
Donovan Mitchell will return tonight after missing the last two games with an illness, and the lowly Washington Wizards are a soft landing for the Cavaliers star. Washington has been dog-walked in the two games since play resumed, losing to Denver and Oklahoma City by a combined 61 points. Those two teams put up 1.259 points per possession on this defense while the offense managed a meager 0.991 points per possession on the other end. The Wizards are a mess right now and seem to be a clear play-against team for the time being. That – coupled with Mitchell’s likely return – are why the market has gone to 12.5 on Cleveland this morning.
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks (-4, 230)
Speaking of disasters, the Hawks turned one in on Friday night. Atlanta lost and failed to cover its third consecutive game when it fell to Toronto at home. The Hawks are now a league-worst 17-39 ATS on the season, and 8-21 ATS at home. There is absolutely no reason to believe in Atlanta at this point, and it could get worse tonight. Both Trae Young and Onyeka Okongwu are out with injury tonight, which is why this line has moved so dramatically. Orlando failed to cover against Detroit last time out, but is still 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games. The Magic are perfectly capable of going on the road here and winning outright as a very small underdog against the most overrated team in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5, 236) at Houston Rockets
It’s hard to make a case for any team against Oklahoma City at this point. The Thunder have crushed their last four opponents. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games – all of which have gone over the total – and in those contests they have a +21.6 net rating. Their offense is averaging 127.4 points per 100 possessions over this span, and the market loves them. This number is now 6.5 consensus and there is no reason to believe Oklahoma City cannot cover.
Denver Nuggets (-2, 234) at Golden State Warriors
This one is easy to scratch off until there is clarity on Denver’s injury report. Both Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are questionable to play. If neither plays that means the entire starting backcourt is out for the Nuggets which is obviously a massive loss. Golden State is 11-5 SU/12-4 ATS since Draymond Green returned from suspension, and it has covered by 6.2 points per game. Even if Denver was at full strength this would be a tough out, so make sure to keep an eye out for Caldwell-Pope and Murray’s status throughout the day.
Chicago Bulls at New Orleans Pelicans (-2, 222)
Both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are questionable to play tonight, which makes it nearly impossible to handicap this contest. The betting market is out to -4.5 on New Orleans despite the injury designations for the Pelicans’ two best players, so it would seem there is a belief at least one of them is playing. However, I have been burned too many times before and would prefer concrete information on both before making a bet either way.
Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 238)
The market has come in on Los Angeles and the over this morning. The move on the total is what I agree on the most. In the past the Clippers have had trouble with speedy guards who can get to the rim or score in isolation. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most recent example, and that game on Thursday night went over the total. De’Aaron Fox has burned Los Angeles many times in the past, and we have seen many high-scoring affairs between these two. However, I wanted to bet this over at the opening number of 237.5 or better. The consensus number as of this morning of 239.5 with it quickly approaching 240 priced me out. It’s also worth noting Norman Powell is questionable, which would be a massive blow for the Clippers if he cannot play, as he regularly closes out games for them.
