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Record: 103-89-3 | Units: +7.8 | ROI: 3.7%
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Denver Nuggets (-3, 225.5) at Dallas Mavericks
Denver has not stopped since coming back from the All-Star break. Since then, the Nuggets are 11-1 SU/9-2-1 ATS with the second-best net rating in the league (+11.4). Nikola Jokic’s play has been at the center of that success. In his last 12 games Jokic is averaging 25.8 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game on 62.2% shooting from the floor. He faces yet another team that lacks the bodies capable of handling him, and it should lead to a successful night for Denver.
However, the play won’t be on the side here. Instead, it will be on the team total for the Nuggets. They have averaged 120.5 points per 100 possessions since the break. Against a subpar defensive team like the Mavericks – 119.6 defensive rating over the last 12 games – that efficiency should remain. Dallas is also playing at the ninth-fastest pace in the league (100.78) which should give Denver a few extra possessions than its usual below average pace provides.
We also get Luka Doncic on the floor today. Doncic is an incredible scorer who will have success, regardless of the matchup. That offensive success should force the Nuggets to keep up the pressure on the offensive end. The market already pushed this total up, but there is still value by my measure in asking Denver to surpass its team total.
Best Bet: Nuggets TT OV 116.5 (-120) – Playable at (-120) or better
NBA Best Bets
Nuggets TT OV 116.5 (-120)
Remaining Games
Miami Heat (-7.5, 215.5) at Detroit Pistons
Miami won and covered a slow, low-scoring affair in Detroit on Friday night. The only thing keeping the result from repeating itself is the status of Jimmy Butler, who is questionable to play today. Butler has played in 23 of 27 games for the Heat, but this is the first of a back-to-back for Miami. It plays in Philadelphia tomorrow in a massive meeting with a team that is a half-game ahead for the top play-in seed. The Heat could rest Butler here in order to have him ready for the meeting with the 76ers tomorrow. It is too much of a risk to jump into this contest before his status is known, as bettors learned this morning with Milwaukee. It’s worth noting that Cade Cunningham is dealing with a knee injury as well. He is probable, but he was questionable last time out and managed just 11 points on 5-of-15 shooting. That could be a symptom of the injury, Miami’s defense or both.
Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic (-11.5, 217)
Since losing Scottie Barnes to injury Toronto is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in eight games. The Raptors have been outscored by 10.1 points in non-garbage time over that span, and they have averaged just 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Toronto is also without RJ Barrett, Chris Boucher and Jakob Poeltl for various reasons, giving it a very short-handed frontcourt. Against Orlando that lack of depth up front is going to be a problem. This has been clearly factored into the line, but this does seem somewhat heavy. The Magic are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games, and the best cover team in the league (42-23-2, 64.6%). These numbers were already nearing their peak, and now against an injured team we could be there. The market seemingly agrees, as this number is down to -11 across the board.
Boston Celtics (-13.5, 236.5) at *Washington Wizards
Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White are out today. Jayson Tatum is questionable with an ankle injury. Boston is deep enough to overcome the losses of three starters, but asking it to cover this number on the road without them is tough. The market has already been too high on the Celtics to begin with, especially in these spots, as evidenced by the fact that they are 14-15-2 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Wizards are 2-19 SU/8-13 ATS in their last 21 games, and they are coming in on no rest. The desire to fade this team is perfectly understandable, but a better in-game number is likely to show itself. That is the best way to handle this one, especially with Tatum’s status in question.
*Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 219.5)
This is the last of a six-game road trip for Brooklyn which spanned 10 days. It is also playing it on no rest, so this is obviously a negative schedule spot for the Nets to overcome. They are 1-4 SU and ATS on this trip as well, and for the season Brooklyn is 10-22 SU/11-21 ATS away from home. Every trend would tell you to fade the Nets here, but the market has not budged. That is despite the Spurs being 4-1 SU and ATS as favorites this season. Perhaps it is due to Brooklyn’s penchant for shooting from distance and lack of shots at the rim. Their offensive style will negate the rim protection of Victor Wembanyama to a certain extent. This is also the fourth game in seven days for San Antonio, but four of them have come at home where it is 7-23 SU/14-15-1 ATS this season.
Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5, 228)
James Harden and Norman Powell are questionable for Los Angeles. Those are two very impactful injuries that bettors will need clarity on before jumping on a side. In New Orleans on Friday night the Clippers had Terance Mann get limited to 18 minutes. The ramifications of that were Bones Hyland and Amir Coffey playing over 22 minutes each, and their perimeter defense and production was lacking. Still, Atlanta is missing three key rotation players due to long term injury. Those injuries have led to an 0-3 SU and ATS slide for the Hawks, in which they have a -8.6 net rating.
