The 2023-24 NBA regular season is over and we have turned the page to the NBA Playoffs. Throughout the postseason, Jonathan Von Tobel will continue to provide you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the playoff games on Tuesday, May 14th. Also, check out our NBA Playoffs Betting Hub for all of our series previews and additional postseason content.
We also put together an NBA Playoffs Betting Primer with in-depth analysis for everything you’ll see the next couple of weeks.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on May 14
NBA Best Bets Today – May 14
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 10:30 pm ET
I really like the Nuggets to win Game 5, but I’m not willing to lay 4 or 4.5 here. If it gets to -3 or anything within one possession, I’ll probably jump on it. And if you can stomach a -180 moneyline right now, I’d definitely suggest going that way. But another way to play this game is by going with the Over on Denver’s team total of 104.5. The Nuggets are averaging 116.0 points per game over the last two games, and they have really figured out how to attack this Timberwolves defense. And I just don’t see that changing too drastically, especially with the defending champions heading back home. I don’t think there’s anything to the road teams being undefeated in this series. The Nuggets should get themselves going in their home building.
A lot has been made of Rudy Gobert struggling in this series, but the reality is that the Defensive Player of the Year has never been able to guard Nikola Jokic. And the reason for that is that nobody on the planet can guard the three-time NBA MVP. In the past, the Timberwolves have countered that by having Gobert guard Aaron Gordon, while also serving as something of a help defender and free safety. But the Nuggets have found new ways to get Gordon and Jamal Murray free in space, making it hard for Minnesota to continue to play the type of defense it wants to. Also, the officials are being a little stricter with what they’re calling, which has been getting to a physical Timberwolves defense.
Overall, I just think that Jokic is going to continue to rack up numbers in this series, and I don’t see any reason the rest of Denver’s role players can’t keep playing well. And realistically, these guys are due for a big game at home.
Bet: Nuggets Team Total Over 104.5 Points (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – May 14
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks – 8:00 pm ET
This is the third time in a row that I’m going to the Over on Pascal Siakam’s point total. I just don’t believe in New York’s ability to defend him without OG Anunoby. And while Siakam didn’t hit this mark in Game 4, that was really only because the game got out of hand quickly. Siakam had 14 points in only 22 minutes in Game 4, and he was an impressive 7 of 9 from the field. Siakam is simply way too quick for Precious Achiuwa, and he’s too big for the other guys the Knicks are throwing on him. That’s also why Siakam had 26 points in Game 3. With all of that in mind, I love getting Siakam at reasonable odds to score 20 points in Game 5. I know his jumper will be a small concern in a rowdy Madison Square Garden environment, and he has been dealing with the yips with that jumper to begin with. But he should be able to score 20 by simply attacking the basket — and leaking out in transition. Whatever he adds as a shooter is a bonus at this point.
Bet: Siakam Over 19.5 Points (-120 – 1.5 units)
2023-24 Record: 365-395-3 (+12.24 units)
