NBA Best Bets for Sunday, March 24th
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 105-96-3 | Units: +2.15 | ROI: 1.0%
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers (-9, 219)
Los Angeles returns home after two strong wins over Portland on the road. The Clippers did not cover their second game against the Trail Blazers, but sat most of the key players in fourth as they held a 21-point lead late on Friday.
Not much should be made of some wins over one of the worst teams in the league, but there is something to build on with Los Angeles. The team is finally starting to get its key players on the floor consistently. James Harden, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Terance Mann, Norm Powell and Russell Westbrook have missed time over the last month. The inconsistent availability of key role players has led to inconsistent results. Today, only Norman Powell is listed on the injury report.
With Harden, Leonard and George on the floor today the Clippers are in a good spot against the 76ers. Those three on the floor together outscore opponents by 11.2 points every 100 possessions. They have a 122.2 offensive rating. Los Angeles should be able to win by margin here against Philadelphia. The 76ers are just 9-17-1 ATS since losing Joel Embiid to injury. They have a 117.4 defensive rating in those contests.
The Clippers are the play here, but only in the first half. Los Angeles went 1-1 ATS in Portland because it sat starters in the fourth quarter. As someone who believes the Clippers can win by margin here, a large fourth quarter lead is a possibility here. However, as to avoid the risk of starters sitting in the final quarter I will play the favorite in the first half, as opposed to the game.
Best Bet: Clippers 1H (-5.5) – Playable at (-5.5) or better
Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves (-4, 219)
This is a risk because of the injury report for Minnesota. Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert are both questionable to play. Edwards is listed with the finger injury he suffered on his dunk against Utah, and Gobert is still dealing with his rib injury. Both played last time out against Cleveland, and I would expect Edwards on the floor at the very least tonight.
The Timberwolves are also in a decent spot on the schedule. They are coming off only a day of rest, but this is the third game of a four game homestand and just their second game in five days. That should be beneficial for Minnesota which had been playing a high volume of contests.
If Edwards plays as expected the Timberwolves should be well equipped to face the Warriors. Their perimeter defenders in Edwards, Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels are elite and can handle Golden State’s offensive pieces, including Stephen Curry. Edwards has also been on another level since Karl-Anthony Towns’ injury. He has averaged 29.3 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.4 assists in the eight games without Towns. Edwards will be a challenge for the Warriors to count for defensively.
Overall, this is just a number grab. Edwards should play, and there is a real chance Gobert plays in a second consecutive game. Should that happen this number will likely close around the opening line.
Best Bet: Timberwolves (-2) – Playable to (-3)
NBA Best Bets
Clippers 1H (-5.5)
Timberwolves (-2)
Remaining Games
New Orleans Pelicans (-13, 219) at Detroit Pistons
Detroit’s injury report is starting to grow, and so too is the losing streak. The Pistons are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS in their last five games. Today, Jalen Duren is questionable, and Simone Fontecchio, Isaiah Steware and Quentin Grimes are all out. The potential of both Duren and Stewart missing this game is troubling for Detroit. New Orleans is a big team which pressures the rim. That duo is a driving force behind the offensive rebounding for the Pistons, which is one of their lone strengths. We have seen the rate of blowouts between playoff teams and non-playoff teams rise in recent weeks. Considering how short-handed Detroit is and how much New Orleans has to play for it is easy to see why this number is so high.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat (-4, 206)
Evan Mobley practiced for Cleveland on Friday, and he has been upgraded to questionable for this game today against Miami. That is obviously massive for the Cavaliers which have been dealing with numerous injuries over the last month. Mobley’s return and the presence of Bam Adebayo – who missed the previous meeting between these two teams last month – is why this total has dropped three points. That game was insanely slow, with a total of 88 possessions for both teams. Neither team is fast, but fewer than 90 possessions is something we do not see. The pace should pick up here, so it makes the low total very fascinating.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks (-3, 231)
Milwaukee is in a better situation than Oklahoma City here, but it isn’t dramatic. The Bucks come into this contest with two days of rest, and it is only their third game in a week. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton are available as well, so Milwaukee is healthy to boot. Oklahoma City has been playing well – 8-3 SU in its last 11 games – but the market has peaked on its rating. Despite wins in eight of 11 games the team posted a 3-8 ATS record. The betting market loves this team for good reason, but bettors looking to back the Thunder are buying at the top of the market. The number is moving their direction again, and it makes one wonder if the value is on pushing back against that line move.
Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Lakers (-3, 240)
So ends the most favorable scheduling stretch in the NBA this season. Los Angeles is not only playing the fourth game of a four-game homestand tonight, but it is also the 12th consecutive game in California. Eleven of those 12 have been played in Los Angeles. Not only is this team rested, but it gets an Eastern Conference foe playing its third game of a five-game road trip. LeBron James carries his usual questionable designation, but it is nearly impossible to ignore how good this scheduling situation is for the Lakers.
