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NBA Best Bets
Record: 111-107-3 | Units: -4.1 | ROI: -1.7%
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Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks (-3.5, 216.5)
It would seem the market has been too extreme on setting New York’s totals in recent weeks. The Knicks’ game with the Heat on Tuesday night went over the total, making it five straight overs for them and a 7-1 record to the over in their last eight games. New York’s four-guard lineup has been very effective, and they have been taking more 3-point attempts than their season-long frequency. Sacramento happens to rank 29th in both opponent 3-point shooting (40.0%) and opponent shooting on uncontested 3-point shots (43.1%). Some of that is variance, but some is a poor perimeter defense. On the other end, the Knicks’ lack of size along the perimeter should work for a team that has size along the wing in Harrison Barnes and Keegan Murray. Still, the market has driven this down to 213.5 consensus. I’ll take the low number and come back on the over for a second straight Knicks game.
Best Bet: OVER 213.5 – Playable to 214.5
Denver Nuggets (-1, 218.5) at Los Angeles Clippers
Jamal Murray is questionable once again for Denver. The team has listed him with that designation for every game he has missed, so we still have no idea whether he will be available or not. His status will likely push this number a half-point one way or another. Kawhi Leonard will not play, and that is the reason behind this line move. Denver is the tempting side here, obviously. The Clippers are 3-10 SU/2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games. They have trailed by double-digits in 10 of their last 12 games at home. Their talent level is better than this though, and they have many matchups work in their favor, especially if Murray doesn’t play. I’ll buy on the unattractive underdog tonight.
Best Bet: Clippers (+4.5) – Playable to (+3.5)
NBA Best Bets
Kings/Knicks OV 213.5
Clippers (+3.5)
Remaining Games
*Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks (-11, 230.5)
The Hawks are playing their sixth game in nine days with no rest tonight, and it is in Dallas against the Mavericks. Dallas returns home after a successful road trip in which it went 4-1 SU and ATS. It failed to cover in San Francisco against Golden State, but the improvement is real for this team. The Mavericks are now rolling with Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr., P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford as starters. That lineup has a +23.8 net rating and limits opponents to 95.1 points per 100 possessions. It is the driving force behind this surge from Dallas. Having said that, bettors are buying at the top of the market here. Given how well the Hawks are playing this could be a prime contest to attack in-game.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (-2, 209.5)
Another day, another injury report loaded with names. Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and Mo Bamba are all questionable to play for Philadelphia. Jimmy Butler is listed as probable due to personal reasons, but the last time he had that designation he missed the game against Golden State. Until the status of these players is clear it is impossible to play this contest. It is a massive game though. The Heat are 2-1 against the 76ers this season. A win for them will clinch the regular season series, essentially lock Philadelphia into the eighth seed and solidify Miami’s current hold on the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference.
Golden State Warriors (-4, 228) at Houston Rockets
Golden State is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in its last five games, and the team is 22-15 SU/25-12 ATS away from home. It would seem that this is a solid spot to come in and back the Warriors, especially given how important this game is. A win would essentially stick the dagger in the side of the Rockets and make it nearly impossible for them to push their way into the Western Conference play-in. Houston has also reached its peak market rating in recent days, and comes into this contest 1-2 SU/0-2-1 ATS in its last three games. Amen Thompson should be back tonight which obviously helps the Rockets on offense. Jonathan Kuminga is questionable for the Warriors.
