NBA best bets and analysis for Thursday, December 14th
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Best Bets
Record: 34-25-1 | Units: +7.20u | ROI: 11.31%
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 229)
The season has felt somewhat disjointed recently because of the In-Season Tournament. Teams have received more days off than usual around this time of year, but we’re starting to get back into the rigors of the regular season. That means we get to pick off some potential scheduling spots, and this is one worth trying.
Dallas is playing its third game in four nights tonight. It had a back-to-back against Memphis and Los Angeles on Monday and Tuesday, and now it must get back up for Minnesota. The Timberwolves have not had to deal with an intense schedule. They played in New Orleans on Monday night, but that was their only game in five days. Minnesota should be well-rested and ready for an important game on the road tonight.
Anthony Edwards is questionable as well, but he practiced on Wednesday and seems to be on pace to play despite his injury designation. If Edwards goes, the Timberwolves will have a capable defender to throw at Luka Doncic, who is still playing without Kyrie Irving. Doncic will never be stopped, but when the best defensive team has its best wing defender on the floor there is always a chance to stifle one of the best offensive players in the league.
Play: Timberwolves (+2) – Playable to (PK)
Best Bets
Timberwolves (+2)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-10, 227.5)
Jaylen Brown is questionable to play with an ankle sprain, so this game – like many on the card tonight – cannot be bet until the status of Brown is known. Cleveland and Boston met on Tuesday night in a game that the Celtics won but failed to cover. It was a high-scoring affair that went Over the total, but that was due to above average efficiency from both teams, as they combined to go 37-of-88 from beyond the arc. This total opened higher than the closing total on Tuesday; something that is understandable but might be an overreaction to the result of the first meeting.
Chicago Bulls at *Miami Heat (-5.5, 216)
Miami is on the second leg of a back-to-back and playing its third game in four nights. Chicago is in a similar situation, but they are coming off a day of rest following their loss to Denver on Tuesday. The failed cover for the Bulls snapped a 5-0 ATS run over which they allowed only 114.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Miami has not been as consistent, posting a 4-5 SU and ATS record in their last nine games. With the Heat on the second leg of a back-to-back we have no clue as to who is going to be available for them either, which makes this contest an easy one to scratch off the board.
*Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets (-9, 227.5)
The market jumped all over this total overnight and bet it up 3.5 points to the current consensus total and it’s hard to argue with that logic. Brooklyn has been a subpar defensive team this season. It is 19th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (115.9) and 21st in halfcourt defensive efficiency (99.8). It has no real physical match for Nikola Jokic and its playing on the second leg of a back-to-back after a tough win in Phoenix last night. Jokic is rested after being ejected early in the win over Chicago on Tuesday, and both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are expected to play.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings (-1.5, 240)
There are no notable injuries for either team tonight, but there is simply no reason to bet either side before the game. This game has a spread under two points with a total bet up from 240 to 244 consensus. It is a game made for live betting, and no matter which side you prefer you should be able to get a better number during the contest than 1.5 either direction. This is a more favorable scheduling spot for Oklahoma City which is playing just its second game in six days as opposed to Sacramento which is playing its third game in four nights and coming off a slaughter at the hands of the Los Angeles Clippers.
*Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers (-1.5, 231.5)
The market quickly jumped on Portland overnight and drove this number up to 3.5 despite some injury concerns. That move would make it seem that the market believes both Deandre Ayton and Malcolm Brogdon are playing, but as of this morning both are still questionable to play. Portland is showing some fight recently and enters on a 6-2 ATS run over the last eight games. Utah is just 2-5 SU/3-4 ATS in its last seven, but got Lauri Markkanen back from injury last night. This being a back-to-back for the Jazz there is certainly a chance Markkanen rests, so keep an eye out for that.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 231.5)
Paul George left the Clippers’ win over the Kings on Tuesday with a sore groin, but he is listed on the injury report with a hip injury today. George and Kawhi Leonard are set to match the most minutes played together since joining Los Angeles and we are only 23 games into the season. There is certainly a chance that George rests, but a non-conference opponent in New York will be in town on Saturday and the team could use that opportunity to sit him or anyone else that needs it. On the other side, the Warriors come in without Draymond Green and on a 4-11 SU/5-9-1 ATS skid. They have played well on the road – the team is 8-4 ATS away from home – but their defense lacks a wing player capable of defending Leonard. George’s status has me waiting, but I believe the Clippers are the side here if he goes.
