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NBA Best Bets
Record: 95-80-2 | Units: +9.3 | ROI: 4.9
Orlando Magic (-8, 212.5) at Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte has been a much improved team in recent weeks. Over the last 13 games it is 5-8 SU/9-3-1 ATS with the fourth best cover margin in the league (+5.2). Since before the All-Star break the Hornets are a team that I believed to be worth backing, and I will continue to follow that thread tonight against Orlando.
The Hornets have quietly turned things around on defense over this run. They have limited opponents to 112.9 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Their halfcourt defensive efficiency has been ninth-best over this span (94.5). The biggest factor for Charlotte’s defensive turnaround has been some luck, as opponents are shooting just 33.3% from deep in non-garbage time against them. That is despite allowing 21.1 uncontested 3-point attempts per game. However, the Magic are among the worst shooting teams in the league (35.7%) and will not be the team to exploit that weakness.
This is just a continued play on what has been a successful theory so far. The betting market has not accounted for the improvements of players like Miller, and how the additions of Grant Williams and Tre Mann have helped this team.
Best Bet: Hornets (+8.5) – Playable to (+7.5)
Boston Celtics (-7, 218) at Cleveland Cavaliers
At this point the Cleveland Charge will be taking the court instead of the Cleveland Cavaliers given how many injuries the Cavaliers are dealing with. Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus have already been ruled out. Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro are questionable. The team is also in terrible form right now, riding a 4-5 SU/1-8 ATS slide into this meeting with Boston.
On the other end, the Celtics do have injury concerns of their own, as Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are questionable to play. However, this team has the depth to overcome those two absences. Boston has outscored opponents by 20.7 points per 100 possessions with Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White on the floor without Brown and Porzingis.
The Celtics are also very clearly taking the end of the regular season seriously. They are 11-0 SU/7-4 ATS in their last 11 games. In those contests they have a +23.8 net rating and have covered by an average of 11.3 points per game. Don’t forget that Boston quietly has some added motivation here. Handing the Cavaliers another loss would increase the probability of the Bucks grabbing the second seed in the East, allowing the Celtics to potentially avoid them until the Eastern Conference Finals.
Best Bet: Celtics (-8) – Playable to (-8.5)
NBA Best Bets
Hornets (+8.5)
Celtics (-8)
Remaining Games
New Orleans Pelicans (-5, 231) at Toronto Raptors
Scottie Barnes, Bruce Brown and Jakob Poeltl are all out for Toronto tonight, and the market has adjusted accordingly. New Orleans also has a massive rest advantage coming into this game after three days off. The injuries to the Raptors obviously enough to scare any bettor off of backing them, but the Pelicans might not be the team to trust here. They are just 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, and as a favorite this season they are 18-18 ATS.
Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks (-2, 215)
Atlanta has done everything in its power to solidify its spot as the worst ATS team in the NBA in recent days. The Hawks were blown out in a two-game series in Brooklyn over the weekend to drop to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and 19-41 ATS on the season. There is a strong argument to be made that the results of the last two games were the result of bad luck – the Nets shot nearly 50% on 3-point attempts – but there is no reason to trust this team at this point. New York is still laying points despite now having Jalen Brunson as questionable to play. If this isn’t enough evidence to prove that the market is out on Atlanta, then I do not know what is.
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-11, 218.5)
Miami has been one of the best cover teams in the last month. It is 10-3 SU/10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 games with a +8.3 spread differential. The driving force has been a defense which has allowed just 108.3 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Despite that success it is hard to ask this team to win by such a margin today. The Heat are still only averaging 117.0 points per 100 possessions on offense over this span. They are also facing the third-best cover team by margin over that same span in Detroit. The market has chopped this total down to 217 consensus as of this morning, and it’s hard to lay such a number with a total that low.
Philadelphia 76ers (-1, 220.5) at *Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn regressed in a big way from beyond the arc last night, and it led to an outright loss as a 9.5-point favorite. The Nets were unbelievably hot from deep in two games against the Hawks, but against the Grizzlies on Tuesday night they went 15-of-42 and averaged just 1.133 points per possession in non-garbage time. This is going to be the problem with capping Brooklyn. It is a high-volume shooting team that will have a wide variety of outcomes based on how it shoots any given night. Still, I do not understand the market’s affinity for Philadelphia. The 76ers nabbed a strong win over the Mavericks on Sunday, but they are still 6-8 SU/5-9 ATS since losing Joel Embiid to injury.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets (-7.5, 232)
Victor Wembanyama is questionable to play with injury, and that should be all you need to know about this contest. If Wembanyama does not play San Antonio will be lost on both ends of the floor. In the possessions without the Rookie of the Year favorite, the Spurs have a -12.1 net rating and allow 124.6 points every 100 possessions. Houston is a quality defensive team which should be able to suffocate this subpar offense if Wembanyama does not play. It is not a game that a bettor can jump in on yet though, as Wembanyama’s status will greatly alter where this line ends up.
Indiana Pacers at Dallas Mavericks (-4.5, 252)
Another game with another massive name on the injury report. Luka Doncic – along with Derrick Jones Jr. and Maxi Kleber – is questionable to play with an ankle injury. The market has not done much with this number this morning, but just as any game with a player like Doncic in doubt, this will evolve with his status. Regardless of his status though, the market pushing this total down seems like a safe bet. We saw this total as high as 252 at the open, but we’re down to 246.5 consensus as of this morning. It could see a small bump if Doncic plays, but it should not get back to the 250 mark.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-7, 224.5)
Devin Booker, Nassir Little and Josh Okogie are out, and Jusuf Nurkic is questionable for Phoenix. The Suns are also 3-6 ATS in their last nine games and averaging only 111.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over that span. Phoenix is a fine defensive team – it has a 111.0 defensive rating in these nine games – but if it cannot score then it will be a hard team to back. Denver is also rolling right now. It is 6-0 SU/5-0-1 ATS with a +14.6 net rating. The Nuggets are also healthy, with only Vlatko Cancar on the injury report. If Nurkic cannot play the Suns have no one to throw at Jokic and will be up against it defensively tonight.
