NBA best bets and analysis for Wednesday, January 17th
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Best Bets
Record: 64-41-1 | Units: +19.7u | ROI: 17.22%
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Milwaukee Bucks (-5, 238) at Cleveland Cavaliers
It is hard to overlook the run Cleveland has been on over the last two weeks. The Cavaliers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in their last five games, and over the course of those five contests they have outscored their opponents by 17.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Each of these wins has come at home, and that is part of the reason why Cleveland looks so attractive tonight. The Cavaliers have been at home for two weeks, and this would be just their second game in six days. This team seems primed to take on a struggling power in Milwaukee.
The Bucks have not had the success the Cavaliers have had. Milwaukee comes into this game 4-4 SU/1-7 ATS since the beginning of January. In these eight games the Bucks have allowed 121.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and their lone spread victory was the home game against the Celtics in which Boston was playing its fifth game in seven nights. It’s almost psychotic to ask this team to cover a number on the road at this point.
It seems the market is being stubborn with Milwaukee at this point. The Bucks are 16-24 ATS on the season, and as a favorite they are 15-23 ATS. According to Cleaning The Glass, they are 21st in spread differential (-1.9) and in January they are failing to cover by 6.3 points per game. Their issues defensively begin at the point of attack, where Damian Lillard is playing subpar defense, and now he has to take on Donovan Mitchell, who has scored 79 points on 26-of-51 shooting in his last two starts.
I’ll take my chances with the home ‘dog tonight.
Play: Cavaliers (+4) – Playable to (+3.5)
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-3, 242)
Luka Doncic was upgraded to questionable for this game against Los Angeles, and that is something worth pouncing on early. Dallas is playing very good basketball in January. It enters this game in Los Angeles 5-3 SU and ATS in the eight games this month with a +3.6 net rating in non-garbage time despite Doncic not playing in four of those contests. Should he return tonight – which seems somewhat likely – this team will have a much higher offensive ceiling than its struggling opponent.
Los Angeles grabbed a win and cover over Oklahoma City on Monday, but dating back to its last matchup with Dallas this team is struggling. Over the last 18 games the Lakers are 6-12 SU and ATS with a -4.6 net rating in non-garbage time. Much was made of the new lineup change against the Thunder – Los Angeles started D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Taurean Prince, LeBron James and Anthony Davis – and perhaps that is enough to change the Lakers’ fortunes, but I have my doubts.
This is still a team that is outscored by 4.0 points every 100 possessions without LeBron James on the floor. Kyrie Irving is playing brilliant basketball – 37.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists on 48.9% shooting from the floor – and Doncic could be back tonight. This is a number grab for me, as I rate Dallas as equals without Doncic, and they are much higher than Los Angeles if he does play.
Play: Mavericks (+4) – Playable to (+3)
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz (-4, 244)
Golden State took a rough loss in Memphis on Monday, there is no doubt. The Warriors were held to 1.081 points per possession in Draymond Green’s first game back, and the Grizzlies drilled 20-of-53 3-point attempts to pull off the win. Golden State committed 19 turnovers and allowed Memphis to shoot 40 free throws as well. When you’re that behind in those three categories it is hard to win games. This team might be at an all-time low this season, but this might be the time to bank on some success.
Utah has been downright dominant over the last month. The Jazz are 15-4 SU and ATS in their last 19 games, and they are covering by 11.1 points per game. Over this span they have outscored opponents by 6.5 points per 100 possessions! It has been tremendous to watch, but we’re starting to see the market shift on the Jazz, and rightfully so. In these 19 games Utah has closed as an underdog 14 times. Not only did we see this team lay seven points against Indiana the other day, but today they opened -4 over Golden State. It would seem we are nearing the market high for Utah, if we are not there already.
This is just a number snatch for me today. It might seem foolish to jump in front of a team that has covered 15 of its last 19 points by 11.1 points per game, but the number dictates it for me, and it would seem that I am not alone. We’re seeing this number come off the open, and I believe that to be the right call here.
Play: Warriors (+4) – Playable to (+3.5)
Brooklyn Nets (-5.5, 226) at Portland Trail Blazers
Call me a fool when this one goes south, but I do not understand this line at all. Brooklyn is 4-14 SU/3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 games, and it has failed to cover by a league-worst 6.7 points per game over that span. Portland is not much better over its last 18 games – 4-14 SU/6-11-1 ATS – but that is somewhat my point here.
What have we seen from Brooklyn that would dictate this team is 8.5 points better on a neutral court than Portland? The Nets have allowed 120.1 points per 100 possessions over the course of this 18-game slide, and the market refuses to adjust to how badly this team has played. Yet the market is on its side once again tonight, and has pushed this up to -6 at multiple shops.
This is a play I might regret, but I cannot help myself when I see this number. These two teams are much closer to being equals when you evaluate their recent play. Portland also has two days of rest heading into this game, and is playing an east coast team in their first game of a west coast trip. I’ll plug my nose and dive in with the ugly ‘dog tonight.
Play: Trail Blazers (+6) – Playable to (+4.5)
Best Bets
Cavaliers (+4)
Mavericks (+4)
Warriors (+4)
Trail Blazers (+6)
