College basketball best bets for Wednesday
We are building up towards a big weekend in college basketball. After there were 28 games on Monday and 31 games on Tuesday, we’re up to 44 games on Wednesday in advance of 59 on Thursday, so we’re getting more and more betting options as the week goes along. It should be a good evening’s worth of games on the hardwood with just about two months until the NCAA Tournament gets going.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest. Check out the Tracking Sheet for this season’s results.
Lafayette Leopards (-4, 130.5) at Holy Cross Crusaders
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a real deep cut to start today, as this Patriot League matchup between Lafayette and Holy Cross stood out to me this morning. Based on current performance, Lafayette played the 70th-ranked non-conference schedule per Bart Torvik and 103rd per Ken Pomeroy. Holy Cross played the 288th per KP and 248th per Torvik. So, it stands to reason that Lafayette’s numbers maybe wouldn’t be as impressive given the non-conference schedule.
We have definitely seen the benefits of playing in the Patriot League. Lafayette is 4-0 in league play. They had a 44.9% 2P% during their 0-12 start to the season in non-conference play. They did beat lower-division Wilkes, but that isn’t factored into Torvik’s numbers. The Leopards did fight admirably on defense, holding opponents to a 48.9% 2P% in the non-conference, due in large part to bigs like 7-footer Justin Vander Baan and 6-foot-10 Chris Rubayo.
Now that they’ve hit conference play, Lafayette leads the conference in 3P% and 2P% defense. They’re also shooting 52.5% on 2s. They’ve struggled to make 3s, but their 3P Rate is down substantially because they can actually get inside on conference opponents, so they don’t need to settle for the long jumpers. Holy Cross has the third-lowest TO% on defense in the nation, so I don’t expect them to stop Lafayette very often here.
From an offensive standpoint, this should be a step up in class from what the Crusaders have faced to this point in Patriot play and I don’t see them having an answer for Lafayette’s two big men.
Pick: Lafayette -4
Arkansas State Red Wolves (-2.5, 151.5) at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
8 p.m. ET
Let’s head to the Fun Belt for this matchup between Arkansas State and Southern Miss. Injuries are a big factor in this handicap, as Southern Miss head coach Jay Ladner said “it’s possible, but maybe a bit of a stretch” that Andre Curbelo and Victor Hart are able to go tonight. Curbelo, who had a history of concussions at Illinois and St. John’s could be dealing with one. He’s averaging 12 PPG, 4.8 RPG, and 5 APG in just six games played after missing the first part of the season.
Hart is averaging 13.6 PPG and 6.4 RPG. He is dealing with a leg injury. Without those two guys against Troy, the Golden Eagles scored .825 points per possession and had just 56 points in a 26-point blowout loss.
Arkansas State is a team to watch in my opinion. First-year head coach Bryan Hodgson has a “Rim & 3” offensive philosophy that I like after serving under head coach Nate Oats at both Buffalo and Alabama. Nearly 88% of Arky State’s shots are Close Twos or 3-pointers per Torvik and they’re shooting 35% on 3s and 57.2% on those Close Twos. They rank 114th in 2P% and 112th in 3P%. They should be able to score on a Southern Miss defense that ranks 313th in 3P% defense and is a little below the national average on 2s.
This is also an Arkansas State defense that runs teams off the 3-point line with a 28.2% 3P Rate against. Southern Miss is 304th in the nation in 2P% and they don’t take a lot of 3s to begin with, as their 3P Rate is 292nd in the country. The one downfall for Arkansas State is that they don’t force a lot of turnovers, but they make up for it on the offensive glass and in other ways.
I like the Red Wolves in general here, though it would help if Curbelo and Hart are both out.
Pick: Arkansas State -2.5
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Texas State Bobcats (-1, 135.5)
8 p.m. ET
How about some more Fun Belt? We’ve got Louisiana and Texas State in this matchup down in San Marcos, as the Bobcats lay a point against the Ragin’ Cajuns. The focus for me in this game is the total, which has moved down, but I’m looking to go against the line move in this one.
Let’s start with shot selection, as Louisiana has a 44.1% shot share on Close Twos and Texas State sits at 44.6%. That puts Texas State 22nd in the nation in Close Two shot share per Torvik, while Louisiana is 30th. Both teams like to get to the rack and should have that opportunity tonight. As good as these teams are about getting to the rim on offense, they are nearly that bad on defense.
Louisiana’s shot share against on Close Twos of 43.6% ranks 335th in the nation and Texas State’s shot share against on Close Twos of 45.2% ranks 352nd in the nation. Louisiana’s FG% against on those shots of 63.8% ranks 328th, so they allow a lot of shots at the rim and can’t defend them. Part of that is because this is about the shallowest team in the nation, as they basically only play six or seven players every night. They can score, but fatigue hits on the defensive end.
Louisiana does play at the faster tempo and owns a 21.5% TO% on defense, while Texas State plays at the slower tempo with a 20.4% TO% on offense. I’d expect the Ragin’ Cajuns to speed this game up a bit and maybe get some buckets in transition.
Texas State’s last game ended with 121 points against an awful Louisiana Monroe team, but their previous Sun Belt games ended with 147, 134, 154, and 167. The 134-point game was against Coastal Carolina and Texas State still gave up over a point per possession. Louisiana’s last three games have been played to 162, 152, and 161 points.
These are two good teams by 3P% defense and the tempo forecasts to be below average, so I get the Under money, but these are two teams playing poor defense right now and I expect a lot of high-percentage shot attempts at the rim.
Pick: Over 135.5
