It couldn’t be Halloween without some horror, and there was no more horrific a result than Milwaukee’s 122-99 loss to Memphis as a 6.5-point road favorite. The Bucks are now 1-4 ATS and have failed to cover by 12.5 points per game. Dating back to last season Milwaukee is 39-53-1 ATS (41.9%).
The Bucks are 26th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency through five games (119.8). Just as last season, teams with quick guards at the point of attack are giving this team massive problems. But even worse, is an offense that has managed just 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
Everything is seemingly going wrong for Milwaukee right now. Damian Lillard has been an inefficient mess to start the season. Dame D.O.L.L.A. is shooting just 41.3% from the floor and 26.7% from deep. He had his worst game as a Buck last night, scoring just 4 points on 1-of-12 shooting.
DraftKings still has the Bucks as a -900 favorite to make the playoffs this season. It might seem extreme to discuss five games into the season, but it is not out of the realm of possibility.
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NBA Best Bets for Friday, November 1st
New York Knicks (-8, 220.5) at Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham is the favorite to win Most Improved Player of the Year at DraftKings right now for many reasons. Paolo Banchero’s injury obviously clears the way for him to be at the top, but Cunningham is having a strong season. The former first overall pick is averaging 25.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists on the season. But, the biggest improvement has been his efficiency.
Cunningham is shooting a career-best 47.1% from the floor. Even more impressive, is that he is hitting 40.0% of his 3-point attempts. That is not on low volume either, as he is averaging 7.1 attempts per game. Cunningham is clearly taking more shots from beyond the arc with purpose this season. His previous career-high average attempts per game was last season at 5.4 per game. This spike in both volume and efficiency has meant that Cunningham is 5-0 to the over on his 3-point prop this season.
The prices are starting to climb on Cunningham’s 3-point prop as a result. Some shops have 1.5 shaded to the over as high as -185. The volume is there though, so I wanted to get in on the action in a different way with some alternate overs.
Cunningham has made four 3-point attempts in the last two games and is averaging 2.8 make per contest. New York’s interior defense has been very solid, and they have allowed the highest frequency of 3-point attempts so far this season. If Cunningham can’t get to his shot inside, it is likely he settles for his newly found 3-point shot, and we see a higher than normal frequency of attempts from deep. If that is the case, it will be worth sweating out some alternate 3-point make props tonight.
Best Bet: Cade Cunningham 4+ Made 3P (+500) – 0.25u
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5, 217.5)
Orlando was dealt devastating news on Thursday when it found out Paolo Banchero was out indefinitely with a torn right oblique. It puts a damper on what was shaping up to be a strong season for both Banchero and the Magic. Old school handicappers like to play on the “Fallen Star Theory” – when a team steps up in the immediate absence of an injured star player – but that is not what this bet will be based on.
Banchero averaged 19.4 field goal attempts per game before his injury. Franz Wagner – who is questionable to play tonight – is second on the team with 12.8 per game. Obviously those shots have to go somewhere, but I don’t believe it will fall on any one player. Jamahl Mosley will likely to his best to distribute those looks among the Magic’s shooters, and there is one in particular I want to target: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Caldwell-Pope is off to an atrocious start to the season. He is shooting just 16.7% from deep on 4.8 3-point attempts per game. That is obviously a massive drop from 40.3% which he shot over the course of the last five seasons. Not only should regression hit at some point for KCP, but I believe his workload increases today too. Due to Banchero’s absence, but also because of Orlando’s opponent.
Cleveland is 5-0 SU and ATS with a +12.7 cover margin in large part because of its offense. The Cavaliers are bombing away from deep. They lead the league in 3-point shooting (41.1%) and they torched the Lakers with a 17-of-41 shooting performance on Wednesday. The Magic are already a high-frequency shooting team (43.3%, 7th). With the absence of Banchero and the opponent, it would seem like a good time to buy low on a shooter like Caldwell-Pope to take advantage of what could be a higher workload.
Best Bet: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OV 1.5 3P (-115)
Sacramento Kings (-4.5, 237.5) at Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is proving to be one of the worst cover teams in the league once again this season. The Hawks are 2-3 SU/0-5 ATS with a -8.8 cover margin after two straight losses to the Washington Wizards. The market has completely turned on this team after a couple of disastrous defensive performances, and I cannot blame it. Having said that, we should give Atlanta a bit of a break.
The Hawks are extremely beat up. Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kobe Bufkin, Dyson Daniels, De’Andre Hunter and Vit Krejci are all injured and missing time. That is a massive part of the core rotation for this team. Onyeka Okongwu missed one of the two losses to the Wizards as well.
I should also be fair and point out that Atlanta’s perimeter defense is extremely poor. NBA tracking data has the Hawks allowing 25.2 wide-open 3-point attempts per game. Opponents have hit 42.1% of those attempts this season. They have allowed league-worst 42.3% on 3-point attempts this season. It is ugly.
But is it this ugly?
First and foremost, Sacramento can’t shoot. It comes into this contest 19th in 3-point shooting (34.8%). I doubt it can take advantage of the Hawks’ biggest defensive issue. Second, while the Kings’ defense itself looks great on paper – only 110.1 points per 100 possessions allowed – much of that is due to facing the Jazz and Trail Blazers the last two games. The Kings allowed 119.2 points per 100 possessions to the Timberwolves and Lakers to start the season.
This is also about the number. This line is up -7 at multiple shops as of this morning. Even with the injuries Atlanta is dealing with, I do not believe the gap between these two teams on a neutral is nearly 10 points. Trae Young and Jalen Johnson are playing. With those two on the floor the Hawks are averaging 1.185 points per possession with a +0.7 net rating. This is not a group that deserves to be priced this low.
Best Bet: Hawks (+7)
Best Bet Recap
Cade Cunningham 4+ Made 3P (+500) – 0.25u
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope OV 1.5 3P (-115)
Hawks (+7)
