It was a small slate last night in the NBA, so there isn’t much to recap. However, it is worth pointing out that once again the Denver Nuggets struggled to put down a lesser opponent. 

For the second consecutive night Denver needed overtime to grab a win. The Nuggets failed to cover though, dropping them to 0-4 ATS with a -9.1 cover margin on the season. Denver wraps up this road trip in Minnesota on Friday. The two overtime games are not as impactful for the Nuggets after two days off, but what the market does with that contest will be fascinating.

 

With that, let’s get into today’s card. Remember, you can track the results of this column here, and always check out the latest NBA best bets from Zach Cohen.

NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, October 30th

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets (-5.5, 226.5)

The market moved quickly in favor of Charlotte here due to a lengthy injury report for Toronto. Scottie Barnes is the most impactful name that will miss this game for the Raptors. He joins Kelly Olynyk and Bruce Brown on the sideline. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful to play as well. It is hard to jump in at this point on the side with a Hornets team I believe to be very good – for a team that is rated where it is – so instead I’ll look toward the prop market.

With Barnes and Quickley out for this game Toronto is really hurting for ball-handlers and shot creators. Davion Mitchell and Gradey Dick – their projected starting backcourt – leaves a lot to be desired. It would stand to reason that RJ Barrett is in line for a massive workload tonight.

Barrett made his season debut a couple nights ago against Denver and put up 20 points with 5 rebounds and 3 assists. That was with Barnes in the lineup. Without him, Barnes’ usage rate should soar tonight. Charlotte has improved this season, but still comes into this game having allowed 116.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. It also lacks a true wing defender to throw at Barrett.

The consensus number for Barrett’s points, rebounds and assists is 32.5 and I believe that is low for a player projected to have the workload he is tonight., especially with only -110 on the over at multiple shops.

Best Bet: RJ Barrett OVER 32.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110)

Atlanta Hawks (-4, 234.5) at Washington Wizards

This is a big revenge spot for Atlanta after it lost to Washington at home on Monday. The Wizards bombed the Hawks out from beyond the arc, hitting 21-of-44 shots from deep. Should Washington hit some regression – a likely event – Atlanta is in a good spot to grab a win and potential cover. But, I will be heading in a different direction tonight.

One of the factors that also help the Hawks here is Kyle Kuzma’s injury. The Wizards forward injured his groin at the tailend of the win on Monday night, and he will miss this contest. That obviously means a larger workload for some, and I believe Alexandre Sarr could benefit greatly.

Sarr was great on the glass in just 27 minutes against Atlanta. He grabbed nine total rebounds, four on offense and five on defense. Through three games he has rebounded 8.0% of his team’s missed shot attempts and 20.8% of opponent misses. With Kuzma out – the team’s second-leading rebounder – Sarr should have plenty of opportunities on the boards. One would assume he gets a bump in minutes as well, as he has only averaged 24.7 minutes per game.

Best Bet: Alexandre Sarr OVER 6.5 Rebounds (-128)

Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5, 225.5)

If you read this column regularly you will know that Cleveland has made a regular appearance here to start the season, and for good reason. The Cavaliers are 4-0 SU and ATS on the season, and they have covered by 10.9 points per game. This has been a team I’ve been backing with regularity, and that isn’t changing tonight against the 3-0 ATS Los Angeles Lakers.

Cleveland has the bodies up front to throw at the duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are as well equipped as any to take on the Lakers’ stars. In the backcourt, there is no discernable edge defensively. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland should still be able to run the Cavaliers’ offense at a high level against Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell. Speaking of, Russell is questionable to play tonight with back soreness.

When the season started Cleveland was a team I made a point to play with consistency, and after an undefeated start I won’t back down now. The market is showing some support for Los Angeles here, as the number is back down to 4.5 as of this morning. I believe that number is playable, but anyone with some interest in the Cavaliers could benefit from waiting. If Russell is active this number could get to -4 when tip-off arrives.

Best Bet: Cavaliers (-4.5)

New York Knicks (PK, 217.5) at Miami Heat

New York is 1-2 SU and ATS as it embarks on its first road trip of the season. There have been plenty of issues for the Knickerbockers, but the most glaring is their defense. 

Despite having a roster with a strong defensive profile on paper, New York has allowed the second-most points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season (124.4). Much of that damage was done by Boston which put up 1.646 points per possession on opening night, but Cleveland also knocked this group around on Monday night. 

The Knicks are better than the metrics show. This play isn’t about playing against their defense. It is about playing against their depth.

Josh Hart is questionable to play tonight. If he cannot go, an already thin group gets thinner. New York is 21st in bench scoring at this point (28.0 PPG). If Hart cannot go, someone has to bump up into the starting lineup, which will be a blow for an already ineffective group.

Miami also does have some pieces to combat the talent on this roster. Bam Adebayo can match up with Karl-Anthony Towns. Jimmy Butler can defend Mikal Bridges and flash out to guard Jalen Brunson if need be. 

We’re already seeing the changes to the Heat’s offense early on. They are seventh in 3-point frequency and 14th in rim frequency. Not surprisingly, the Knicks are one of the league leaders in mid-range attempts. I believe Miami’s depth and offensive system are enough of an edge at home to expect them to win this contest outright.

Best Bet: Heat ML (+105)

Best Bet Recap

RJ Barrett OVER 32.5 P+R+A (-110)

Alexandre Sarr OVER 6.5 REB (-128)

Cavaliers (-4.5)

Heat ML (+105)