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Record: 120-121-3 | Units: -10.4 | ROI: -4.1%
There is nothing on the board that I see as a play at this point. Clearly my read on the market is non-existent at this point right now anyway. Instead of forcing a play on a tightening market I’ll sit back today and try to find some great in-game opportunities.
Remaining Games
Boston Celtics (-9, 204) at Miami Heat
Shockingly enough, Heat Culture cannot recreate a nearly 60% shooting performance in consecutive games. Miami was run out of their own building over the weekend, and if we are to pick which of the three results are the real ones it is safe to assume the ones in which Boston rolls are what we can expect.
In the two losses the Heat have averaged 1.041 points per possession. They have a -23.6 net rating and a 51.9% effective field goal percentage. Miami is doing the right thing in this series. It is playing at an extremely slow pace (89.83 possessions per game) and taking a high volume of 3-point attempts (43.2% of attempts). However, that strategy is generally good to spring an upset in a single game – which they did – but over the course of the series it is unlikely to work.
The betting market has adjusted the power rating on Boston and we now see -10.5 as the consensus number on the board. The Celtics are perfectly capable of covering that number, but considering the game is on the road and the style with which the Heat are playing, it is likely that bettors get a better number in-game.
What is also fascinating is the total. The market bet the total up on Saturday, but the game stayed under due to Miami’s lack of offense. The number is a half-point lower today with no real desire to move the number lower. Those who shaped the market definitely thought we had reached the low point over the weekend, but got burned by the result. Could we see that come to fruition tonight?
Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5, 206.5) at New Orleans Pelicans
Through three games the Oklahoma City Thunder are thoroughly outplaying the New Orleans Pelicans. Oklahoma City owns the best non-garbage time net rating (+20.7), defensive rating (95.9) and defensive turnover rate (18.9%). As we saw over the weekend, this team is prepared for negative situations – going on the road with a 2-0 lead – and responds well.
Having said that, bettors must decide if the adjustments we have seen from the market are too extreme. Oklahoma City was a 7.5-point favorite in both games at home in this series, and it was laying just 1.5 on Saturday. Today, the line is up to -5 at multiple shops with no sign of slowing down. That is a clear upgrade to the Thunder’s power rating, and those looking to get involved are buying at the top of the market.
It is a near impossible game to get involved with at this point. There is little, to no value on the better team at this point. The lesser team has shown nothing through three games though, and banking on a team to show up because it is desperate is how bettors get into trouble. Just look at Phoenix last night. Instead, waiting for the best in-game opportunity should be the way to go for Oklahoma City.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-7.5, 217.5)
Jamal Murray tweaked his calf in the loss to Los Angeles on Saturday night, but played through the injury. The fact that he is questionable to play in this game is somewhat concerning, and his status is the only thing that matters for those looking to jump into this game.
Injuries aside, Denver’s shooting is the primary focus for me in this contest. The Nuggets are shooting just 28.2% from beyond the arc overall. They have hit just 25.0% of uncontested 3-point attempts in this series; the worst shooting percentage on such shots in the postseason. That is despite generating the sixth-most per game (17.0). These shooting struggles explain some of the first half struggles as well, as Denver is shooting 40.2% from the floor and 23.0% from deep in the first halves of the series.
One would assume that regression hits at some point – especially at home – but that is not guaranteed. If it does, the Nuggets will obviously be in position to end this series. However, let’s not act like the Lakers have nothing to build on in this elimination game.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis ate with the pick-and-roll on Saturday night. Davis in particular has been dominant in this series and comes into this game averaging 30.5 points and 15.8 rebounds per game on 62.2% shooting from the floor. If Murray does not play we can expect a massive dose of James and Davis as the Lakers attempt to stave off elimination.
Given Murray’s status though it is impossible to recommend a play at this point. If Murray does play this number should not close much higher than it is right now. If he doesn’t we can expect a dip of about 2.5 points. Keep your eye on the ticker for this one.
