Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
Before we dive into the card today let’s take a look at the other big storyline from the postseason: totals.
But, that adjustment seems to have reached a low point. Since Wednesday’s action in the NBA, overs are 6-2 and three of those games have gone over by 24.5 points or more. Still, the market is betting these games under. Of the four games on the card today, only one has a pre-flop total higher than its opening number. Eight games is not a large enough sample size to draw sweeping conclusions from, but it is notable after such extreme adjustments from last weekend.
The talking point from the opening weekend of the postseason was how well unders had done. Six of the first eight games went under the total, and three of the games went under by 26 or more points. Through Tuesday, unders were 10-4 in the NBA postseason, and we saw the market adjust in a big way.
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Record: 120-118-3 | Units: -7.20 | ROI: -2.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-2.5, 201.5)
Offense has been fleeting in this series for both teams. Orlando did drop 121 points in Game 3 but that was an outlier performance for a team which finished 22nd in non-garbage time offensive efficiency in the regular season. Two of the three games have gone well under the total, but the regression to the mean should be around the corner.
The main piece of evidence in the case for regression is both team’s shooting in this series. The Cavaliers are shooting 26.7% from deep in three games against the Magic. Orlando is shooting 27.7% from distance. Both are much better shooting teams than that. The Cavaliers shot 37.1% from deep in the regular season. The Magic shot 35.7% from distance. Even more shocking is the fact that Cleveland is shooting 34.1% on uncontested 3-point attempts in this series and Orlando just 27.4%!
It feels too easy to bet this game over and just shout “Regression!” but these numbers are so extreme. We also get to account for the market adjustment. The first game of this series opened with a total of 208.5 and the total for today is down to 201 at some spots. Game 3 eked over the number and that was another bad shooting night for both teams. I expected some regression to the mean today.
I also expect a better performance from Cleveland. The Cavaliers clearly packed up early on Thursday night when it was clear the Magic were going to shoot the lights out. I believe Cleveland to be the better team in this series, and while it made sense to shade the number toward Orlando for the first game back home I think it was too much. I bet the Cavaliers in that game because I felt there was value in the number and will do so once more today.
Best Bet: OVER 201.5 | Cavaliers ML (+122)
Boston Celtics (-8, 205.5) at Miami Heat
Heat Culture struck again on Wednesday night when Miami went into Boston and evened the series. Or, insane shooting variance.
The Heat bombed out the Celtics with a 23-of-43 shooting performance from beyond the arc. Specifically, Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro combined to go 11-of-17 (64.7%) from deep. There are some who would point to that and just invoke the genius of Erik Spoelstra, but as much as I love Spoelstra, that is clearly an unsustainable rate from deep. Factor in Miami going 14-of-32 (43.7%) from every other area of the floor and it’s safe to assume some regression for the Heat.
Having said that, laying this number with Boston is a bridge too far. Instead, I’m going to play this game over the total.
Miami is doing the smart thing in this series by increasing the variance. It has attempted 48.2% of its shots from beyond the arc while playing at a glacial pace. That is a perfect recipe to spring an upset, and that is obviously what transpired in Game 2 of this series. Meanwhile, we know Boston is a high-volume shooting team themselves. The pace might remain the same, but bettors can count on a high rate of 3-point attempts.
The adjustment on this total – much like the one we’ve seen in the series between the Magic and the Cavaliers – factors in as well. The first game in this series opened 211.5 at some shops and for this game today we are at 204.5 for the consensus total. Let’s buy back on the adjustment for the series and expect some points.
Best Bet: OVER 204
Remaining Games
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1, 211) at New Orleans Pelicans
Denver and Minnesota went on the road with 2-0 series leads this week and both are on the verge of sweeping their respective opponent. Oklahoma City is capable of doing just that with New Orleans. The Thunder’s small-ball lineup decimated the Pelicans in Game 2 on Wednesday night. New Orleans does not have an answer for that lineup, and the team is struggling to find offense right now. The market is likely watered down on the line due to the situation for the Pelicans, but it is hard to look past Oklahoma City here at a cheap number.
Denver Nuggets (-2, 216.5) at Los Angeles Lakers
How about this market swing? Los Angeles is desperate for a win so it closes as a small favorite on Thursday night. The Lakers lose that game, and the market swings four points to the Nuggets for a potential series-ending contest. If you need any more evidence that teams down 2-0 back home have no value, I do not know what else to say. That aside, the market has clearly adjusted here. This is a fair line and those looking to back Denver are better off waiting for a cheap in-game line. The Nuggets have trailed at halftime of each game, so maybe bettors get that again tonight.
