NBA Best Bets for Sunday, May 5th
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NBA Best Bets
Record: 122-124-3 | Units: -11.5
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5, 195.5)
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The total on this game has been pretty fascinating to track on Sunday morning. A few books opened 196.5 and we saw a steady stream of market support to the under. At one point, this number hit 194 consensus, but that was the floor and there was some extreme buyback that got it back up to 196 at quite a few shops within 20 minutes.
Trend bettors will look toward the under here given the history of elimination games in the NBA. Since 2005 the under is 38-22 (63.3%) in a Game 7 of an NBA playoff series. This series has also been a slog. Two of the games played would have gone under the current total, and the highest scoring game of the series had 207 points scored.
Over 80% of possessions for both teams in this series have come in halfcourt settings. Orlando has averaged just 0.964 points per possession in Cleveland this series, and the Cavaliers’ have barely surpassed a point per possession at home (103.9). It’s not like either team has been playing elite offense in this series.
Jarrett Allen is unlikely to play today, and that is likely why this total deserved some buyback at the low point. The pace for Cleveland has increased and the defensive efficiency has dipped. When dealing with such an extreme total a buyback is worth it. But, given the usual extreme dip in pace we see in these elimination games it is worth it to come back on the high total on the board.
Best Bet: UNDER 195.5
