NBA Best Bets for Wednesday, May 15th
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis.
NBA Best Bets
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (-14.5, 204.5)
Donovan Mitchell has already been ruled out of this contest with his calf injury. The market was already leaning in that direction when it opened -14.5. It might seem that only a 1.5 point adjustment isn’t enough, but we were already halfway to that point when the line was first hung.
With that in mind, this number is on the high side for me.
Cleveland is a much more competent team than Miami, even without Mitchell on the floor. Evan Mobley has played some of the best basketball of his career in this series. He is second on the team in net rating when on the floor (+0.2) and the Cavaliers have been outscored by only three points in his minutes this series. That alone has allowed Cleveland to get off to strong starts and it has given bettors some great in-game opportunities throughout.
Boston is 3-1 SU in this series but 2-2 ATS. It has outscored Cleveland by only 6.4 points per 100 possessions in four games. Instead of hopping on such a massive pre-flop number it would behoove bettors to wait for a cheaper number once the game begins.
In Game 4 the Cavaliers opened the game with an 8-2 run that caused Joe Mazzulla to call a timeout. My VSiN Primetime co-host Tim Murray was able to lay -8.5 with the Celtics who closed -11.5 for the game. That line didn’t get there, but it is a great example of the opportunities given by in-game wagering.
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder (-5, 214.5)
The market firmly planted its flag on Oklahoma City’s side throughout this series, but it would seem we’ve seen a change of heart. The Thunder opened -5 for Game 5 but we have seen a steady move toward the Mavericks. There is a smattering of -4 on the board, but that does seem to be floor, as the “sharp books” came off of that number and are back to -4.5 as of this morning.
I’m looking for one thing tonight: Will Mark Daigneault finally pull the plug on starting Josh Giddey and insert rookie Cason Wallace into the starting lineup?
Wallace has been tremendous in this series. He has the second-best net rating among qualified Thunder players in this series (+7.1). Wallace’s defense has been incredible in this postseason as a whole. According to ESPN Stats & Info, opponents are 14-of-54 (25.9%) when Wallace is the primary defender. He has mostly drawn Kyrie Irving as an assignment, and he is a big reason why Irving has averaged a mundane 15.0 points per game on 46.0% shooting.
Wallace being on the floor also allows Oklahoma City to quiet the noise of role players like P.J. Washington. With Wallace on the floor along with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort and Jalen Williams the Thunder can stay at home on shooters and not send help as often. That help comes in the form of playing off Washington which has burned the Thunder throughout this series.
More minutes for Wallace would mean an opportunity with his player props today. Wallace to make 2+ 3-pointers can be found at +230 odds, and would be worth adding once we know he has an increased role. Wallace is a 41.8% shooter this season, and he knocks down corner 3-point attempts at a 44.2% clip. He is shooting 43.8% on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in the postseason, and he shot 44.2% such attempts in the regular season. If he gets starters minutes tonight, there is some real value on alternate 3-point markets for him.
Best Bet: [0.5u] Cason Wallace 2+ 3P (+230)
Record: 122-128-3 | Units: -16.18
