NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, March 30th




Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 61-69 | Units: -11.20 | ROI: -8.81%

Boston Celtics at *Milwaukee Bucks (-3.5, 236.5)

This game may have lost some of its luster, but it is still an impactful one in the race for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Milwaukee holds a three-game lead over Boston, and its magic number is four with six games left to play. A win tonight would all but clinch the seed for the Bucks, but they do not find themselves in the best position to do so.

Milwaukee comes into this game on no rest after dueling with Indiana last night. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday only played 32 minutes and Khris Middleton sat out, so this is a back-to-back that is not as stressful as a normal one. However, we did see the Bucks face a similar situation over the weekend in Denver and they were blown out in the second half. This being a back-to-back also means we do not get a glimpse at the injury report for the Bucks, which is always a dangerous proposition.

The market has knocked a point off this line here, but that is par for the course when one team has a rest advantage over the other. At 2.5 this number would indicate Boston is the better team on a neutral, and while some might agree with that rating it does not make sense considering the questionable status of both Robert Williams and Grant Williams. There is no reason to expect Antetokounmpo or Holiday to miss this game, and Middleton should be back after a night off. Instead of risking another second half collapse I will risk it with no injury report and play the Bucks in the first half.

Bet: Bucks 1H (-1)

Best Bet Recap

Bucks 1H (-1)

NBA Games & Odds

New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets (-9, 232.5)

New Orleans had its 5-0 SU and ATS streak snapped in dominant fashion by Golden State on Tuesday night. The Warriors put up 1.51 points per possession in the second half, crushing the Pelicans by 28 points and covering a game in which they trailed by as many as 20 points. That result matters because there were questions about how legitimate the run by New Orleans was. Four of their opponents during that five game run were four of the worst teams in the NBA right now (San Antonio, Houston, Charlotte and Portland). Is what we saw transpire on Tuesday night more in line with what the Pelicans really are?

Denver has won four straight coming into tonight, and it is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in its last six games with a 122.0 offensive rating. The Nuggets have plenty of motivation as well, with their magic number for the top seed in the Western Conference sitting at three. Nikola Jokic might be listed as questionable due to calf tightness, but it’s worth noting that that is the exact reason Joel Embiid missed their showdown on Monday. It could be an injury, or it could be a jab at Embiid which would mean this number is going to climb when Jokic is announced as active.