MLB Win Totals Sharp Report


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In the meantime, with the 2023 MLB Regular Season set to begin on Thursday, let’s examine a trio of Win Totals receiving sharp action from respected bettors at BetMGM…


Boston Red Sox Over 78.5 wins

No team has seen a bigger offseason jump to their over win total than the Red Sox. Boston opened at 76.5 wins and has been bet up to 78.5. Currently 86% of bets and 89% of money is taking the Red Sox over, signaling heavy smart money support. Expectations are low for the Red Sox, who went 78-84 last season and then lost Xander Bogaerts in the offseason. However, GM Chaim Bloom quietly retooled the roster, locking up star third baseman Rafael Devers to a long term extension, loading up on veterans like Kenley Jansen, Corey Kluber and Justin Turner while also signing Japanese slugger and WBC star Masataka Yoshida. If Chris Sale can stay healthy and rookie Tristan Casas can live up to the hype, Boston could be surprisingly competitive. FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to go 83-79, further evidence of value on the over. 


New York Mets Under 92.5 wins

The Mets have seen one of the biggest line moves to the under of any MLB team. New York opened at 95.5 wins and have plummeted down to 92.5 wins. The under is only receiving 26% of bets but 49% of money, a sharp contrarian under bet discrepancy. New York went 101-61 last year and added ace Justin Verlander in free agency to pair with Max Scherzer. However, the Mets also lost their stud closer Edwin Diaz to a season-long injury suffered during the WBC. As a result, the win total dropped three games. The Mets also play in the ultra-competitive NL East and will have to battle the Braves and Phillies all season long. FanGraphs projects the Mets to go 89-73, which lends support to an under bet. 


Chicago White Sox Under 82.5 wins

The White Sox have also seen a huge dip in their win total. Chicago opened at 85.5 wins and has fallen to 82.5. Over 70% of bets and money are taking the under, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support. Chicago went 81-81 last season. The White Sox lost longtime anchor Jose Abreu to the Astros in free agency. Chicago will also have a first year manager behind the bench, as Pedro Grifol replaces Tony La Russa. FanGraphs projects the White Sox to go 80-82, which would still cash the under despite having fallen three wins from the opener.