Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
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*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Record: 47-52 | Units: -6.96 | ROI: -7.20%
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Hornets (-6, 241)
It is clear the betting market is extremely low on San Antonio, and for good reason. The Spurs are 2-18 SU/7-13 ATS in their last 20 games, and on an 0-13 SU/2-11 ATS slide. Having said that, we might be reaching the point in San Antonio’s market rating that it’s worth betting on them. Charlotte snapped an 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS slide with a win over Atlanta the other night, but there is not much separating these two teams.
Since the beginning of December the Hornets are 9-28 SU/12-24-1 ATS with a -7.0 net rating, and the Spurs are 8-27 SU/14-21 ATS with a -9.7 net rating. Charlotte rates as the better team, but the degree to which the market has rated them ahead of San Antonio could be quibbled with. Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson are not on the injury report tonight either. It’s an ugly ‘dog to back, but the market leaves me no choice.
Bet: Spurs (+7.5)
Best Bet Recap
Spurs (+7.5)
NBA Games & Odds
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (-2.5, 230.5)
DeMar DeRozan will not play tonight due to the hip injury suffered against Orlando, so it is unlikely this abysmal offense for Chicago will show signs of life tonight. The Bulls have averaged 109.3 points per 100 possessions without DeRozan on the floor this season, and over the course of this 0-4 SU and ATS slide they are on they have a 94.4 offensive rating. Facing Indiana, which is 25th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (116.8), might raise Chicago’s floor, but the 24th best offense in the NBA not having its leading scorer is not a side worth investing in. The total is up to 231.5 this morning, but it’s worth noting that 10 of 13 games for the Bulls have gone Under the total.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers (-3, 217)
This number has dipped to 1.5 consensus across the board, and that is largely due to the questionable status of Joel Embiid tonight. Embiid has regularly carried that designation into games, but has played in 16 of 17 contests so it is likely he plays in a very important game. If he does play there should be a move back toward Philadelphia here, because at the least these two teams rate as equals. Cleveland has been playing extremely well, coming into this game on a 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS run over its last seven games, so this could also just be the market buying in on the Cavaliers as well. However, my ratings tell me this should be a 3.5-point spread if Embiid is playing, so should he be ruled in but this number stays under that mark I will be on the home team here.
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-3, 234)
Atlanta took a bad loss to Charlotte on Monday to extend its recent slump to 5-7 SU and ATS in the last 12 contests. The Hawks, as usual, have been wildly inconsistent. Their defense has allowed 117.1 points per 100 possessions over this span, and in the loss to the Hornets they gave up 1.346 per possession. Meanwhile, New York has won four of five games but has still had its issues defensively without Mitchell Robinson. In the 14 games since losing Robinson the Knicks have allowed 120.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. As a result, they have a -0.5 net rating in those 14 games and it’s led to some tough losses. From a rating standpoint the Knickerbockers rate as the better team, but not by much.
Miami Heat (-1.5, 217.5) at Brooklyn Nets
My theory that Brooklyn will be a team worth playing Unders on seems to be one the market agrees with. This number is now down to 211.5 consensus after opening at 217.5 so it’s safe to say the value is gone. The Nets did allow 1.39 points per possession in the loss to the Knicks on Monday night, but this team does project as a good defensive group with Dorian Finney-Smith, Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson on the floor together with Nick Claxton at center. Miami will also be without Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry tonight, which is a blow for an offense that comes into this game 25th in non-garbage time efficiency (112.0).
Detroit Pistons at *Boston Celtics (-9, 229)
The short-handed Celtics couldn’t hold on yesterday against Milwaukee, and it’s unknown what this roster will look like tonight with no rest. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams were all unavailable yesterday and considering this is the last game before the All-Star break for Boston it’s unlikely we most of those players on the floor tonight. The market has reflected that skepticism with this line now -8 consensus and it could drop even more once the injury report is posted for the Celtics.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-9, 235.5)
These two teams met on Feb. 4 and Oklahoma City closed as a 10-point favorite in what would be a 153-121 win for the Thunder. The opening number of -9 here could be considered a discount given the fact there is no real difference in player availability tonight, and the market has responded as such with 10 appearing across the board. One could make the argument that the Thunder are near a market high with its rating, as the team is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine games, and the Rockets have shown some more consistency with a 5-4 ATS record in its last nine contests.
Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies (-7, 239.5)
Memphis is in a much better scheduling spot here, and it is likely we’ve seen the market move as strongly as it has in its favor. The Grizzlies last played on Sunday against the Celtics, and they have played just once in the last five days. Meanwhile, the Jazz are playing their fourth game in six nights and it is not only the final game of a four-game road trip, but the last one before the All-Star break. Memphis is still playing some very inconsistent offense though, and the loss on Sunday dropped it to 4-9 SU and ATS in its last 13 games. Those looking to back the Grizzlies here have missed their opportunity to do so pre-flop, but will more than likely get an opportunity to in-game given the high total.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets (-7, 233.5)
The number has dropped here to 5.5 consensus and that is due largely to the injury report for Denver, as both Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are questionable to play. Seeing as this is the last game for the Nuggets before the All-Star break I would assume that neither will see the floor in order to get some extra rest before the season resumes next Thursday. This is a fascinating matchup for obvious reasons, but the biggest one is Dallas’ defense meeting Denver’s offense. In the two games with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic the Mavericks’ offense has been amazing, but those lineups are still allowing 120.7 points per 100 possessions. As a result, Dallas is 0-2 SU and ATS since getting both of their stars on the floor together. However, both of those losses came in the role of favorite, where a team must defend a lead as opposed to stay inside a number. This total is 233.5 consensus this morning and if Murray plays we can expect it to rise even more.
New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers (-3, 234.5)
LeBron James is questionable to play once again, and given the reports surrounding his foot injury it would be a surprise to see him on the floor tonight. Los Angeles will likely want him to get as much rest as possible and forcing him into the last game before the All-Star break makes little sense. In the three games that James has missed this offense has dropped off a cliff, averaging just 107.5 points per 100 possessions. That is no aberration either, as the Lakers average just 109.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time without James on the floor this season. New Orleans has also steadied the ship recently, and comes into this 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five, a run that began with a win over Los Angeles at home. This number has started to creep up to -4 at a few shops, which might be an indication of James’ status, but if he does not play this number should be under -3 by my ratings.
