NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 6/13


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.


Market Report for Monday, June 13th

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 213.5)
Game 5: Series tied 2-2

After a historic performance in Game 4 on Friday Stephen Curry will try to replicate that magic back at home in an all-important Game 5 tonight. According to the NBA historical data the team that wins Game 5 in a best-of-7 series that was tied 2-2 is 182-40 (82.0%) in the series. In betting terms that is a -456 favorite so it is safe to say that this game will go a long way toward deciding the winner of this series.


There are plenty who believe this to be a favorable spot for Golden State. To come back home where your team is 10-1 SU/8-3 ATS with a %plussign% 15.3 net rating in non-garbage time minutes after a win on the road to tie the series is a fantastic position to be in. However, the team that handed you that one loss at home is the one that you face tonight. Boston has been fearless on the road this entire season. In the playoffs the Celtics are 8-3 SU/9-2 ATS with a %plussign% 5.1 net rating and 31-21 SU/33-17-2 ATS when you include the regular season. Furthermore – as you undoubtedly will hear today – Boston is not only 7-0 SU and ATS coming off a loss in this postseason, but a whopping 27-11 SU/26-12 ATS including the regular season. 

Trends aside, the basketball ramifications of Golden State’s win on Friday are fascinating. Steve Kerr finally decided to trust in Kevon Looney and the payoff was enormous. Looney posted a game-best %plussign% 21 while grabbing 11 rebounds and helping the Warriors tie the series up. Kerr opted to give Looney minutes in a key stretch of the fourth quarter as opposed to franchise stalwart Draymond Green who played only 33 minutes compared to the 40%plussign%  minutes played by the trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. The result was Golden State’s first won fourth quarter of the series and a massive 55-42 edge on the glass, something that killed them in Game 3. 

Looney is clearly going to play a huge role for the Warriors tonight, so one would assume Ime Udoka rolls with his dual bigs Robert Williams and Al Horford more often in this contest. The Celtics were %plussign% 6 on Friday in the minutes with both Horford and Williams together, and in the last two games the team has a %plussign% 35.3 net rating with those two on the floor together. 

Once more the betting public has chosen its side in this contest and that side is the home team. An early look at the betting splits shows that 81% of the handle and 64% of the tickets are on Golden State at DraftKings, and this number is up to -4 as a result. By my number there is value in Boston once more in this spot but given my position in the series I do not feel the need to press my luck with the side tonight. 

As far as the total is concerned, I believe the market has this right in betting it down. This has been a slower paced series and while we have a 2-2 split as far as the result is concerned the second game barely went Over the total. If we see even the slightest dip in efficiency – much like we saw on Friday – this game is going to go Under. The best number to bet Under the total for me would be 212.5 but that has been long gone as 211 is the consensus number as of now.

Best Bet Summary


Season Record: 100-84-2