NBA Betting Splits Systems and Strategies for the 2025-26 Season:
The NBA tips off its season on Tuesday October 21st, and if you’ve never had the opportunity to take advantage of the VSiN NBA Analytics Reports, I highly encourage you to do so. They are loaded with all the relevant trends, betting systems, schedule advantage scenarios, strength ratings interpretations, and so much more. Of course, in one of the highlight pieces each day, we analyze the DraftKings Betting Splits data available and suggest the teams to play or fade and the totals options worth your consideration based upon what the bettors at DK are doing. Are these always “against the public” plays? No. In fact, you will see from what I’m about to present here in my latest edition of the updated DraftKings NBA Betting Splits Systems that there are actually spots in which the majority groups do well. It’s always an exciting thing to follow and profit from each season, so sit back and enjoy reading about the strategies we will employ to benefit from the betting splits data generously provided to us by DraftKings.
Some of you may be wondering about the Circa Betting Splits data that VSiN also posts. For the record, we are still logging that data daily and will begin analysis probably around midseason when we collect enough to make some valid conclusions. I am as curious as you are as to how this Circa data might compare to that of DraftKings. The two sources have obviously different industry reputations, with Circa being more of a “sharp” destination and DraftKings being recognized as more of a recreational shop. I could share all kinds of theories as to how the data might present itself, but I’d rather wait for the actual results to prove them. That said, the DK data does give us a lot to go on.
Looking back at the DK betting splits data for the full 2024-25 NBA regular season, there were 1,321 games played for the sample. If you recall, around midseason last year, I updated some actionable betting systems using the data to that point in the season. At the time, much of what we had seen was closely emulating data for the prior two seasons, so it made sense to stick with the basic principles that guided our systems and simply build around those if any new patterns were developing. I’ll have more on that in a bit, but for now, I have to remind NBA bettors, if you’re an avid player, you cannot afford to be without this expert analysis day-in and day-out.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 1,321 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null and there were several ATS ties already in the season.
Other than the much improved performance by the majority handle on totals, the numbers were remarkably consistent overall when comparing to the prior two seasons findings. Because of that, those of you who have been using our daily NBA Analytics Reports and taking advantage of the betting systems we have continued to produce have reaped the benefits.
Regarding the findings that the majority handle bettors were far more successful than the majority number of bets groups in point spreads and totals…This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, as the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp,” while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input.
I personally believe that longevity is critical for bettors when using these Betting Splits effectively, as naturally bettors can have hot/cold short term runs within seasons. However, over the long haul is where I find the most effective foundation for the systems I present. As such, I choose, when possible, to simply update the records of the systems I have found over the last three seasons, rather than presenting new ones all the time. With that in mind, here are the updated NBA systems and records we will be beginning the 2025-26 season with. If you haven’t been using these as shown in our daily NBA Analytics Reports, again I highly recommend adding it to your handicapping arsenal.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for a ROI of -22.6%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and a ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and a ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last three playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 149-110 for -44.87 units and a ROI of -18%. Compare this to the usual ML return of just over -5% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will again be very significant starting in April.
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa, is updated every five minutes.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
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