RJ Barrett and Cade Cunningham Stats
Since 2022 the NBA has elected to take Election Day off in order to boost voter turnout. As a result, we get every team in action tonight. After a quiet Sunday, it is a great day for hoops, especially with college basketball tipping-off tonight as well.
The news of the day comes from Phoenix, where Paul George is set to make his debut for the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid – who got into an altercation with Philadelphia Inquirer columnist Marcus Hayes – will not play tonight.
It has not been reported whether George will have a minutes restriction, but it stands to reason he will not have a full workload on his plate tonight against the Suns. The betting market seems to think so at the very least. Phoenix opened as 4.5-point favorites on the overnight lines, and they are currently -7 across the board. George also has some very muted stat lines in the player prop market. His point total is 17.5 shaded to the over.
With that, this column is going to take on a different look going forward. Every Monday and Friday, I will analyze some of the different betting trends taking place in the NBA. What we learned from over the weekend, and what we saw from a week of action.
Zach Cohen will continue doing his excellent work on a daily basis, and you can always find NBA bets from myself, Cohen and the rest of the VSiN contributors on our picks page.
RJ Barrett’s Dominance
The Toronto Raptors may be in the headlines today because of their “global ambassador” Drake’s beef with Sacramento Kings guard DeMar DeRozan, but in betting circles they should be the focus for a much different reason.
In the win over Sacramento on Saturday, RJ Barrett went insane. The Raptors’ guard scored 31 points on 10-of-26 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and dished six assists. Barrett scored or assisted on the final nine points of regulation for Toronto. As a result, Barrett surpassed the market expectations for him that day, but this was not a singular event.
Scottie Barnes is out at least three weeks with an orbital fracture. With him on the bench has been Immanuel Quickley, Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk. Toronto has been decimated with injuries early, and as result their number of ball-handlers and shot-creators has been whittled down to one: Barrett.
In the three games since Barnes’ injury Barrett has a 35.5% usage rate, a rate which is on par with Luka Doncic’s rate for the season (36.2%). The Raptors’ guard has averaged 31.7 points, 6.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists on 51.5% shooting from the floor. Toronto has no next to no one trustworthy to run its offense due to injury so Barrett has benefitted, and so, too, have bettors.
Last Wednesday, the Raptors were in Charlotte taking on the Hornets. Barrett’s points, rebounds and assists prop opened at 32.5 but closed at 30.5 at most shops. Barrett finished with a combined 43 points, rebounds and assists that night, and he has surpassed that figure in each game since. The market has adjusted, and his prop for tonight is a consensus 35.5 as of this morning, but considering his usage one could make the argument the adjustment isn’t enough.
Of the three statistical categories, assists is the one that sticks out the most for Barrett. He averaged 4.1 per game last season in a Raptors uniform. In this new role, he has assisted on 37.1% of made baskets when he is on the floor. According to the NBA tracking data, he has averaged 13.3 potential assists per game. In his first game of the season, his assist prop was 3.5 and in the games since – including Monday against Denver – that number is up to 5.5. To invoke Doncic once more – similar usage rate and worse assist rate – his number is 7.5 heavily juiced to the over.
Barrett’s run here does seemingly have an expiration date though. Once Quickley returns from injury – which seems to be on the horizon – his usage rate will suffer and the assist opportunities will dwindle. This is a trend that is a result of a changed workload, and one that will pop up throughout the season for other players when fellow teammates suffer injuries. It’s one of the player prop angles worth betting with consistency until it dries up.
Cade Cunningham’s Expanding Bag
Detroit is not off to the strongest start this season, but their franchise cornerstone is.
Through seven games, Cade Cunningham has averaged a career-best 24.1 points and 6.9 assists. Both his overall shooting percentage (49.3%) and 3-point shooting accuracy (39.5%) are the best they have been in his time in the league. It is why he finds himself tied for the second-highest odds to win Most Improved Player of the Year at DraftKings (+1200). But, what makes all of this even more impressive, is the fact that he is showing such a spike in efficiency on a higher volume.
Cunningham is averaging 19.1 shot attempts per game. On the surface, it isn’t a massive leap from the 18.8 per game he put up last season. However, he is taking more 3-point attempts, and he is making them at a much higher rate. Last season, Cunningham averaged 5.4 3-point attempts per game. This season, he is putting up 6.1 per contest. This does not seem to be an anomaly either. It seems that it is a concerted effort to improve and add more to his expansive game.
Last season, Cunningham averaged 7.3 pull-up field goal attempts per game and 2.0 pull-up 3-point attempts. He shot 43.6% on pull-ups overall and 32.5% on ones from beyond the arc. In seven games this season, he is averaging 8.6 pull-up attempts per game and 3.6 from deep. On 3-point pull-ups he is shooting 36.0% this season. As a result, his average 3-point makes per game has gone from 1.9 in the 2023-2024 season to 2.4 this year.
In six of seven games, Cunningham has used his new weapon to go over his 3-point prop. Sunday’s win over Brooklyn was the first game this season in which he did not make multiple 3-point attempts. The market has adjusted here in a really big way. The juice on over 1.5 3-point makes was -180 at multiple shops yesterday. Today, against the Los Angeles Lakers, his prop is -165 or more to the over.
The question now becomes, is this a trend that is worth following as the season goes along? The answer I keep coming back to, is no. Maybe Cunningham does become a knockdown, pull-up shooter who hits 40% of his 3-point attempts. But, at the current prices – the implied probability of -165 is 62.3% – the market has completely priced bettors out. It might seem tempting to buy on a player who is 6-1 to the Over on his 3-point props, but there seems to be little bargain at this point.
