The NBA draft will begin on Wednesday, and the intel is picking up. Some pictures are becoming clearer while others get more confusing by the second. It would seem we have clarity at the top two selections, but the reports around the first overall selection still come with some caveats.
In this mock draft I’ve done as much digging as possible to find reports and craft an accurate mock. There are links to intel from around the league that I used to help craft this mock of the lottery. Hopefully, it leads to some winning wagers for those reading this piece.
NBA Lottery Mock Draft
1. Atlanta Hawks
Zaccharie Risacher (F, Bourg)
Last week the steam around Atlanta and Donovan Clingan really started to billow. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie mocked Clingan first overall, and Clingan moved ahead of Alex Sarr in the market for first overall pick.
Since then the growing sentiment is that Risacher will be the selection. Vecenie had the Hawks selecting Risacher in his most recent mock draft, and Brian Windhorst noted on his Hoop Collective podcast that he would be “surprised” if Atlanta did not draft Risacher. Clingan still remains on the Hawks’ radar by all accounts, but only in a scenario in which the team trades back. If you can find a team specific market that might be the way to go.
It should also be noted that the rumors of Atlanta trading this pick persist. There was a report last week that stated the Hawks would be keeping the pick, but Marc Stein reported over the weekend that the noise around a potential swap between Atlanta and San Antonio would not go away.
When there is smoke there is fire, and that smoke is pointing toward Risacher getting his name called first on Wednesday night.
Bet: Zaccharie Risacher 1st Overall Pick (-250)
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr (F, Perth)
On Friday evening ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony went on SportsCenter and proclaimed that the league views Sarr as a “lock” to be selected by Washington. Over the next two hours the market moved from -150 to -550 on Sarr to be selected here. Nothing since then has come out to make me believe that anything but this selection will occur on Wednesday night.
It should be noted that in the Stein report mentioned above that the target for San Antonio would reportedly be Sarr if they move up to the top spot. There has not been much else to corroborate that report. No other players has really been connected to the Wizards, even at this point of the process. It would be a massive upset if Sarr is not selected here.
Bet: Alexandre Sarr 2nd Overall Pick (-600)
3. Houston Rockets
Reed Sheppard (G, Kentucky)
This is where the draft starts to become unpredictable. Houston is reportedly shopping this pick aggressively. According to Givony, many teams in the league “are operating under the assumption it will be moved in their internal mock drafts”. If that is the case it is hard to bet anything involving this pick, but if that is the case it leads to two scenarios.
First, the Rockets stick and pick. If they do, it is widely assumed that the selection will be Sheppard. The Kentucky guard fits a need for a team looking to add depth at guard. He can sit behind Fred VanVleet while providing good shooting and defense off the bench for a team looking to make the playoffs.
Second, the pick is traded. While we do not know which team would acquire this selection, the two teams that are constantly named are Memphis and Oklahoma City. Both reportedly covet Donovan Clingan. Perhaps a wager on Clingan to go here at +300 could be added to the portfolio, but for this mock the pick will be Sheppard as the Rockets still control the selection.
Bet: Reed Sheppard 3rd Overall (-135)
4. San Antonio Spurs
Stephon Castle (G, UConn)
San Antonio has been linked to Castle since May when reports emerged of the team’s interest in the UConn guard. Castle reportedly views himself as a point guard, but I doubt he gets his way in a system like the Spurs’. Having said that, they did start the season with Jeremy Sochan at point.
There is limited intel on San Antonio’s desires here. The team does allegedly love Risacher, but might not be willing to send the assets needed to acquire the first overall selection. Considering the limited intel and the fit – Castle would make this defense much better – it makes sense to go with the betting favorite here.
Bet: Stephon Castle 4th Overall (+160)
5. TRADE Memphis Grizzlies (via Detroit Pistons)
Donovan Clingan (C, UConn)
This wouldn’t be great for me considering my wager on Matas Buzelis to go fifth overall, but this trade makes too much sense. Clingan is widely considered to be a top three prospect, yet he is still on the board at the fifth overall pick. Memphis reportedly covets Clingan and moving up from the ninth overall selection to fifth is much more palatable than a move to third overall. Clingan would give the Grizzlies a monster rim protector who can play next to Jaren Jackson.
James Edwards – who covers the Pistons for The Athletic – reported that Detroit wants to move this pick to restock its assets. The Pistons could likely get a future first round pick here, and move back to ninth to get their real target: Tidjane Salaun.
Bet: Donovan Clingan OVER 3.5 (-125)
6. Charlotte Hornets
Matas Buzelis (F, G League Ignite)
Intel surrounding these teams starts to get pretty sparse this deep into the draft. The only thing we know is that Buzelis did workout for Charlotte. The Hornets do have a need for a power forward to play next to both Brandon Miller and Miles Bridges, and Buzelis fills that need to an extent. He is also a good cutter – which plays well with LaMelo Ball as a passer – and he has shown a knack for rim protection as a help defender.
There is still a ton of smoke coming from Detroit around Buzelis, but if the trade projected in this mock occurs it makes sense that Buzelis lands here or seventh to the Portland Trail Blazers.
Bet: Matas Buzelis OVER 5.5 (-110)
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Dalton Knecht (F, Tennessee)
Almost every mock draft and respected draft analyst has the range for Knecht from seventh to ninth overall. The former Tennessee forward worked out with Portland, and he fills a need for the worst shooting team in the league. It would make sense if the Trail Blazers decide to go in this direction.
It should be noted here that Portland is reportedly in the market for a center despite having both Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams on the roster. Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reported that the Trail Blazers have interest in Zach Edey at this spot. Clingan is also widely mocked here as well.
Bet: Dalton Knecht UNDER 8.5 (-150)
8. San Antonio Spurs
Rob Dillingham (G, Kentucky)
San Antonio got the wing defender it needed with its first pick in this mock draft. Now, the Spurs get their point guard of the future in Dillingham. An ankle injury has reportedly delayed Dillingham’s ability to workout for teams, but the Kentucky guard did get in front of San Antonio executives in recent days. His small stature makes him a potential liability on defense, but with Victor Wembanyama anchoring this defense that is not a massive issue for San Antonio.
The Spurs are shopping this pick by all accounts. That could mean this pick is used as part of a package to move up, or it could mean San Antonio is willing to move down at this point of the draft. There are a few guard options available at the tailend of the lottery the Spurs would be happy to add while also acquiring more assets.
Bet: Rob Dillingham UNDER 11.5 (-110)
9. TRADE Detroit Pistons (via Memphis Grizzlies)
Tidjane Salaun (F, Cholet)
This is the result of Detroit’s trade back from fifth overall. Edwards’ reporting paints a picture of the Pistons’ true intentions being a move back from their original pick to acquire more draft capital while also acquiring a truly substantial piece in Salaun. In this mock, they achieve that goal.
Oklahoma City is another team to watch out for when it comes to Salaun. They are a team that could work this deal out with Detroit, which means Salaun going 12th overall instead of ninth overall. Either way, look out for the Pistons to try and move back for Salaun. Anyone who can find an exact team market might want to put something on Salaun going to Detroit, as there is intel that is their target.
Bet: Tidjane Salaun (+180) over Cody Williams
10. Utah Jazz
Nikola Topic (PG, Mega MIS)
Topic is going to be in the green room on Wednesday night, so the likelihood is that he will be selected early despite dealing with a partially torn ACL. A team with a timeline that is similar to Utah’s could afford to grab Topic and let him heal, so this is why I have the Jazz selecting him 10th overall.
There has not been a specific player tied to Utah at this point, but they are widely considered to be looking for both a point guard and a center in this draft. The target of a big man comes on the heels of reports that Walker Kessler could be on the move. Look for the Jazz to potentially pair their two late-round picks in an attempt to move up in the draft as well.
Bet: Nikola Topic 10th Overall (+600)
11. Chicago Bulls
Ron Holland (G League Ignite)
Chicago has been linked to multiple guards in the process of the draft, but most of that came prior to the acquisition of Josh Giddey. With Giddey in the fold there is no need to add an on-ball presence at point guard, as Giddey figures to fill that role. Instead, the Bulls need depth at the wing positions, and Holland fills that need.
Patrick Williams figures to be on his way out. Holland – the one-time Texas commit – could be everything Williams was supposed to be. He has also worked out for Chicago, and so we know the team has seen the Ignite product in person. Cody Williams is an option here too, but considering the Colorado guard has not worked out with the Bulls, Holland is the natural fit. He is also the favorite at DraftKings to land here. It might be tempting to bet Holland to go exactly at 11th due to the big payout (+400), but instead going over his draft position seems to be the safer option. There are not many mocks that have him going inside the top 10 selections.
Bet: Ron Holland OVER 9.5 (-145)
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
Bub Carrington (G, Pittsburgh)
The only intel around Oklahoma City right now is that the team would like to move up in this draft. By all accounts, that move would be to acquire Salaun. However, in this mock the Pistons beat the Thunder to the punch. So, Oklahoma City instead takes a swing on an intriguing piece in Carrington.
The former Pitt guard is seemingly regarded as the upside piece in this range of the draft. Multiple mocks have linked him to the Thunder despite no account of them working him out. If the draft were to break as I have it I believe Oklahoma City would trade back instead of selecting Carrington, but for now I’ll put him here. If I were to rank all of the mock draft betting selections I have made to this point, this would be the least confident selection of all of them. Though it does seem Carrington should go before the 19th overall selection.
Bet: Carlton “Bub” Carrington UNDER 18.5 (-140)
13. Sacramento Kings
Cody Williams (G, Colorado)
There is quite a bit of smoke around the idea of Sacramento moving this pick in hopes of acquiring a piece to improve their odds of competing now. Until that move is made, it is unknown who selects here. Should the Kings make the selection, there are few better prospects at this point than Williams.
Williams is a wing player who can do almost everything. He was in contention for the top pick prior to the college basketball season, and he is a fringe top 10 talent in this draft. The former Colorado guard could even help Sacramento should it keep him, as they need depth behind Harrison Barnes. When we get to this point of the draft we could see this pick moved, but for now Williams makes sense given how this mock has gone. He has a big range, but there are few mocks tying Williams to a pick higher than ninth overall so going over his draft position is likely the way to go.
Bet: Cody Williams OVER 8.5 (-115)
14. Portland Trail Blazers
Devin Carter (G, Providence)
Carter has been one of the reported risers in the pre-draft process. He has even been mocked as high 10th overall to the Utah Jazz by some. Reading some of the reports, it would seem that Carter has at the very least solidified his spot in the lottery, so he goes here at 14th overall.
Portland has quite a few ball-handlers, but the depth at guard is somewhat thin. Malcolm Brogdon is not a long-term piece and likely gets moved at some point. Carter could be a great defensive piece off the bench, and he has improved as a shooter. It makes sense that the Trail Blazers take a shot at him here. His draft position of 10.5 seems like a high number, and the price reflects that at -170 but that is fair considering where most mocks have him.
Bet: Devin Carter OVER 10.5 (-170)
