NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Systems Update:
We are at or around the halfway point of the 2024-25 NBA regular season. Through Tuesday, 1/21, there were 638 games played thus far. That makes it a nice time to go in and study data patterns that have formed in the early part of the season. One of the foremost areas I like to keep up with the data on in from the DraftKings Betting Splits pages on VSiN.com. If you recall, I issued some actionable betting systems using this data at the outset of the season, and we have been qualifying the plays meeting the system criteria on a daily basis in our NBA Analytics Reports. For the most part, much of what we have seen so far this season has closely emulated data from the last few seasons. I’ll have more on that in a bit, but for now, I have to remind NBA bettors, if you’re an avid player, you cannot afford to be without this expert analysis day-in and day-out.
For those of you using the Betting Splits pages now showing Circa data in addition to DK, I did reach out to our database guy about acquiring the Circa logs for analysis. VSiN is still developing making the game-by-game data available. I am curious how this Circa data might compare to DraftKings. The two sources have obviously different industry reputations, with Circa being more of a “sharp” destination and DraftKings being recognized as a home for recreational bettors. I could share all kinds of theories as to how the data might present itself, but I’d rather wait for the actual results to prove them. That said, the DK data does give us a lot to go on.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2024-25 season, the sample contained 638 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while majority bets groups were far superior on money lines. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 317-295 ATS (51.8%), -7.5 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 288-317 ATS (47.6%), -60.7 units – ROI: -10%
– Majority handle on money lines: 395-238 (62.4%). -103.17 units – ROI: -16.3%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 442-188 (70.2%). -11.09 units – ROI: -1.8%
– Majority handle on totals: 332-295 (53.0%). +7.5 units – ROI: +1.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 314-309 (50.4%), -25.9 units – ROI: -4.2%
If you’re wondering why the results don’t add up to 638 games, it’s because 50/50 handle or bets splits are counted as null and there were several ATS ties already in the season.
The numbers were remarkably consistent overall when compared to the 2022-24 season findings in terms of the point spreads and totals. Hopefully, those of you who have been using our daily NBA Analytics Reports and taking advantage of the betting systems we have continued to produce have reaped the benefits. Of course, the success of money line bets majorities is something new to this season.
The majority handle bettors were far more successful than the majority number of bets groups in point spreads and totals. This shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise, as the handle would tend to include a greater percentage of bigger money bettors who are perhaps more “sharp,” while the number of bets groups contains all of the bets that come in, which includes the smallest of recreational bettors’ input.
I like to remind readers why I have adopted the strategy of following these betting splits. It was over two years ago that I set out to study the college football betting splits data provided on VSiN.com by DraftKings. I felt that a book like DraftKings, known for servicing all levels of recreational bettors, providing this type of data would offer a ton of great betting opportunities if savvy bettors knew how to interpret the numbers. As it turns out, I was right, but by somewhat different means than I thought I would find.
VSiN touts the Betting Splits Data from DraftKings and Circa often, and righteously so, as we believe these to be fantastic resources for bettors. On these VSiN.com pages, we have built remarkably useable data charts detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
Why is this Betting Splits information so valuable? Well, most specifically, it lets us see which games are the most publicly supported each day or week. My common belief is that the “betting public,” especially at a heavy recreational source like DraftKings does not win over the long haul. It remains to be seen how the numbers break down from Circa, as it is commonly believed that more sharp players place their action there. However, when it comes to DK, the collective opinions of this group of recreational bettors are right out on display for all of us to analyze and take advantage of.
Whenever I write these Betting Splits articles, I like to remind readers of the two common betting generalities for recreational players who wager at places like DraftKings. That is the majority bet favorites on point spread and Overs on totals. The numbers are staggering. According to the ticket/handle so far this NBA season, majority wagers were on favorites in at least 73% of the games, and on Overs for totals in 88%.
I personally believe that longevity is critical for bettors when using these Betting Splits effectively, as naturally, bettors can have hot/cold short-term runs within seasons. However, over the long haul is where I find the most effective foundation for the systems I present. As such, I choose, when possible, to simply update the records of the systems I have found over the last 2+ seasons rather than presenting new ones all the time. With that in mind, here are the updated NBA systems and records with games through Tuesday, 1/21. If you haven’t used these in our daily NBA Analytics Reports, I highly recommend adding them to your handicapping arsenal.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 129-109 ATS (54.2%) over the last 2+ seasons. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 616-546 ATS (53%) over the two seasons. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 66-50 ATS record (56.9%). I told you earlier that most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 116 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 258-207 ATS record (55.5%). This lot of 465 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 70-104 ATS (40.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 2+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 314-258 ATS (54.9%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.8% success rate, they were more than 3% improved in these contests.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 390-334 ATS record, good for 53.9%. This is another near 3% improvement on the overall majority figures.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last 2+ seasons, they are just 105-120 ATS, good for 46.7%. This is over a 5% drop off compared to the overall majority figures.
Here are some more specific money line angles:
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1002-470 over the last 2+ seasons but for -214.88 units and an ROI of -14.6%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 746-483 but for +3.48 units and an ROI of +0.2%. This 14.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and backing ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #10: Majority handle money line wagerers have struggled in each of the last two playoff seasons, with handle majorities going 97-76 for -33.6 units and an ROI of -19.4%. Compare this to the usual ML return of -5.2% and you can see bettors are losing on a lot of favorite plays. This system will be significant starting in April.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: Money line majorities on double-digit road favorites have squandered their bankrolls since January 2023. These majority handle groups are 130-26 SU but for -40.1 units, an ROI. of -25.7%. We will recommend fading these plays until something changes, as backing big road chalk can be a very risky strategy in the NBA.
These last four systems involve totals.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. I told you earlier that most NBA bettors love taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 2+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 349-280, good for 55.5%, +41 units, and an ROI of +6.5% since January 2023.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 282-242 (53.8%) for +15.8 units and an ROI of +3% since January 2023.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a touch under 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 304-266 (53.3%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 304-270 (53.0%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #15: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 136-102 (57.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap.
The betting splits on VSiN.com are running live and will change in the days and hours before game time. If you adopt any of these strategies this season, be sure to visit VSiN.com for the latest numbers.
The data, which we get directly from DraftKings Sportsbook and now Circa as well, is updated every five minutes.
Also, if you want to see the opening line and the line history, click on the visiting team’s logo. The updates are timestamped. A nice touch is that – if the game is over – you will get a summary that includes the final score, Total result, season Over/Under record for each team, and you can compare the result to what Steve Makinen’s estimated score was.
Unlimited access to betting splits and the NBA Analytics Reports is available to VSiN Pro subscribers.
