In recent weeks on VSiN.com, I have unveiled some of the best betting systems and trends for the earlier rounds of the NBA playoffs. Now, as the association moves on to the Finals following a pair of conference finals mismatch series to go with a lengthy delay, so do I in sharing the key info you might need to bet this finals matchup between Boston and Dallas.

On paper this matchup is not expected to be all that close, with the Celtics favored by 6.5-points in Game One and -210 for the series. That shouldn’t come as a major surprise considering that Boston is a #1 seed that won 64 games in the regular season while Dallas is a #5 that was just 50-32.

 

However, as the Mavericks boast a couple of stars that are capable of putting a team on their back in Luka Doncic & Kyrie Irving so who knows what could or will happen. Game 1 is slated for Thursday June 6th, and should the series go seven games, it will wrap up on Sunday, June 23rd. As such you should have plenty of time to digest all of the Finals’ trends I am about to share.

Before getting into the specific trends, you should know that three of the last five Finals series have been seed upsets, breaking a streak of five straight prior wins by the better seed. Dallas will attempt to run that to four out of six. Also note that outright winners in the NBA Finals are 51-3-2 ATS (94.4%) over the last 10 seasons, although one of the ATS losses did come last season in Denver’s series-clinching Game Five victory. This ATS record for outright winners beats every similar study I’ve done in a variety of sports and thus stands as an endorsement for moneyline wagering on underdogs. I’ll get into more of that later.

This is the final part a four-part series, I hope you’ve enjoyed and profited from it. Good luck with your NBA Finals wagering.

As I reasoned in the first three articles of this package, being able to predict an upset in a series will give you a leg up on a game-by-game wagering basis. Accurately projecting which underdogs will push a series deep, or alternatively, which favorites will end a series quickly, can really boost your wagering profit in this round and all others. Take a look at some of these Finals trends based upon won-lost records at various time lengths of the regular season and in the playoffs to date.

• In the last 11 playoff seasons, the better seeds own a 7-3 edge in Finals wins and a 34-22 game wins edge during that span. In 2016, Cleveland and Golden State were both #1 seeds.

• This will be just the second time in 11 seasons that the East representative had a better regular season record. In that time, the team with the better regular season record is 9-2.

• This will be the ninth time since 2013 that one of the teams won at least 10% more games in the regular season. In those other eight recent series, the series record is 7-1, and the individual game record is 31-15.

• I explained in the conference finals round that there had been a massive advantage of late for the teams that had played fewer games in the first two rounds. That continued this season for Boston, who easily moved past the Pacers to advance. Minnesota however, lost to the Mavericks. There is no such advantage for the finals, as in the 10 series since 2013 in which teams played an uneven number of games in the first three rounds, the finals team that played fewer games is just 5-5 in series wins and 30-27 in individual wins. For 2024, Boston has lost just twice in the playoffs to this point, Dallas five.

104 points is a low benchmark for NBA Finals success – The 2016 Finals series was the first in which totals reached into the current levels. Since that time, teams that score 104 points or less in an NBA Finals playoff game have struggled badly, going just 7-29 SU and ATS (19.4%).

Success accompanies reaching the 115-point mark – Using the same season noted above as the benchmark, teams scoring 115 points or more boast a record of 19-3 SU and 16-3-3 ATS over the last eight years. If you recall, the magic number for the conference finals was 116 points.

Home teams are a slightly lesser wagering option – Hosts in the NBA Finals are 31-26 SU and 27-29-1 ATS (48.2%) since 2013. This includes an 11-16 ATS (40.7%) mark since 2018.

Favorites on a recent surge – NBA Finals favorites are on a surge of 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS (66.7%) in the last 18 Finals games. In the 10 games prior to that, they were just 1-8-1 ATS.

Winners cover – Over the last 10 seasons, and 56 games, outright winners have gone 51-3-2 ATS (94.4%) in the NBA Finals.

Totals leaning UNDER of late – In the 63 NBA Finals games since 2013, there have been 28 Overs, 33 Unders and two ties, although Under is on a 19-11-1 (63.3%) run in the last 31 games.

Big home favorites get it done – Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 23-7 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%). This is a similar trend to that from the conference finals round if you recall. Boston is already a 6.5-point home favorite for Game One.

Small home favorites have been vulnerable – Again like the conference finals, the record of the last 17 small home favorites (-4 points or less) in the NBA Finals is just 6-11 SU and ATS (35.3%). There were no plays on this between Miami and Denver a year ago.

Home underdogs’ bark is less than their bite – Home underdogs in the NBA Finals have proven to be overmatched recently, going just 1-7 SU and ATS (12.5%) in their last eight opportunities. This could apply to the Mavericks’ home games barring a massive series swing or injury.

Bad shooting games have carried over negative momentum in the Finals – Teams coming off games where they shot less than 41.5% in an NBA Finals game are just 6-14 SU and ATS (30%) outright in their last 20 tries.

Good 3PT shooting games don’t carry momentum – While poor shooting games overall don’t bode well for teams in the next NBA Finals game, neither does hot 3-point shooting, as teams that shoot 47% or better from deep have gone just 6-13 SU and 4-14-1 ATS (22.2%) in the follow-up outing.

Embarrassing losses have galvanized teams – In the last 10 NBA Finals series, three games have been decided by 30 points or more. In all three cases, the team that lost bounced back with an outright and ATS win in the next game, all by double-digit margins. This didn’t happen last year.

Other double-digit losses have carried over – In the trend above I noted that the last three teams beaten by 30 or more bounced back well in recent NBA Finals. That is not the case for all other double-digit defeats, as teams that suffered those have gone just 10-19 SU and 9-18-2 ATS (33.3%) in the follow-up contest. If you recall, three games of the 2023 NBA Finals were decided by double-digit margins.

NBA Finals series opening games have sided with the home teams/favorites of late – Including the neutral court game of 2020, home teams/favorites are on a 9-1 SU surge (8-2 ATS, 80%) in NBA Finals Game Ones. The average margin of victory of in the nine wins has been 13.4 PPG. However, the sole loss did come in 2022 in Boston’s upset win at Golden State.

Home teams/favorites have also fared well in Game Two lately – I just showed how well Game One home teams/favorites have done lately, well, they are also getting it done in Game Two, going 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS (71.4%) in the last eight seasons although Denver did lose its only game of the series last year in Game Two.

Game Three has been a momentum squelcher – The team that wins Game Two in the last 10 NBA Finals series has gone just 3-8 SU and ATS (27.3%) in Game Three. All eight of the losses were by double-digit margins as well.

Home teams struggle in Game Four – Game Four hosts have gone just 2-8 SU and ATS (20%) in the NBA Finals since 2013.

Home team Game Fours that won Game Three are bad bets – Home teams that won their NBA Finals Game Three are 1-4 SU and ATS since 2013 in Game Four, losing all three times by double-digits, despite being favored in three of the games.

Defense/fatigue has ruled Game Fours – The first three games of the last 10 NBA Finals series have produced 211.1 PPG on average. Game Four has seen a significant drop to 204.1, with nine of the last 10 going Under the total.

Game Five home teams/favorites have struggled since 2015 – Only one of the last seven Game Six home teams/favorites has covered their point spreads, going 3-4 SU and 1-5-1 ATS (16.7%).

Momentum has been a big factor in Games Five-Six-Seven– The later a series gets, the more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit win in an NBA Finals game are 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS (72.7%) in Games Five, Six and Seven of a series.

Teams facing elimination in Game Six have most often bowed out – There have been seven teams that have faced elimination in Game Six of the NBA Finals since 2013. These teams are 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in those contests.

Trends by Seed Number (note that this year’s Finals matches a #1 in Boston versus a #5 in Dallas)

Top seeds have been a bankroll drainer – The record of #1 seeds in the NBA Finals since 2017 is just 11-8 SU and 7-10-2 ATS (41.2%).

Teams seeded 4th or worse have been overmatched – There have been three teams in the NBA Finals since 2018 that were seeded 4th or worse. Their overall record: 3-12 SU and 6-8-1 ATS (42.9%). When coming off wins, they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. At home, they are winless, 0-4 SU and ATS.

Teams seeded 3rd or worse have been great late-series options – The last four NBA Finals series have featured one of the teams playing as a seed of 3rd or worse. These teams have been gold in Games Three and later of their respective series, going 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%), although Miami was 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS last June.

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