NBA Finals Series Leaders Best Bets
The NBA Finals begin on Thursday. Some would look at that break as agonizing, but the extra time gives bettors a chance to really dive into the different markets around the series.
Today, I have decided to look at the markets for series leaders. At DraftKings we can find odds for series leader in points, 3-point makes, rebounds and assists. With some studying in hand about the series overall, we can sift through these odds and find some potential plays to make for the series.
Points Leader
This is one of two markets in which Luka Doncic is the massive odds-on favorite, and rightfully so.
Kyrie Irving might be on this team, but Doncic still leads Dallas in usage rate by a wide margin in this postseason (35.8%). Only 18% of all his made shots in the playoffs have been assisted on, and he is averaging 41.5 minutes per game. In other words, he plays a lot and in the ball is always in his hands.
Doncic will obviously have to work for his scoring opportunities in this series, but they will be there. When Kristaps Porzingis is on the floor he will attack him often – something he did in the regular season. Porzingis usually defends by playing drop coverage. Doncic will be able to attack the soft mid-range area that is left by that scheme and wrack up the scoring chances.
The other way Doncic finds his opportunity to score is by attacking smaller guards like Derrick White and Payton Pritchard when they are on the floor. White is a good defender, but gives up nearly 40 pounds to Doncic. That is a physical match up that works for Dallas, and Doncic will try to exploit it.
Jayson Tatum is the clear other choice, and at +280 or better I believe would be worth a play.
Tatum – like his Mavericks counterpart – leads the Celtics in usage rate in the postseason (30.2%). Dallas has improved defensively, but Tatum still has matchups he can attempt to exploit.
P.J. Washington will likely be the primary defender for Tatum throughout this series. Physically, he can handle Tatum better than the slender Derrick Jones Jr. But, Tatum has had success against Washington this season.
In two games this season, Tatum has scored 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting with Washington as his primary defender. Boston has scored 43 team points on such possessions. Washington will obviously have to be much better than that, but if Tatum generates a similar level of success he will be in contention to lead the series in scoring.
Tatum also showed a tendency to go after both Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively in the regular season meeting. The Celtics would work to get either switched onto Tatum on the perimeter, and he would work on both in space with some positive results.
For an honorable mention we can throw Jaylen Brown into this conversation, but he will have to be hyper efficient while also stealing some usage from Tatum to lead this series. That is extremely unlikely.
This is a two-horse race, and the probability that Tatum leads is higher than the market says it is.
Lean: Jayson Tatum (+280)
Threes Leader
This should be an extremely fun market to track throughout the series.
Once again, Doncic is favored to lead the series in this statistical category, but he has not reached odds-on status yet.
The Mavericks’ superstar does shoot a high-rate of 3-pointers – 39% of his attempts in the postseason are from distance and he averages 9.8 per game – but that volume does not come with efficiency. In this postseason he has shot just 34.3% on 3-point attempts. He is a better shooter than that – he shot 38.2% in the regular season – so he will be a threat to take this market.
Kyrie Irving has the efficiency to be a threat, but the volume just is not there to realistically expect him to lead in this category when considering the odds (+700). Irving did lead the Mavericks in 3-point makes against Los Angeles in the first round, but that was largely due to Doncic shooting 23.9%.
For Boston, Derrick White is a real threat to win this award due to his shot profile.
White will be among the leaders in minutes per game for Boston. In the postseason 60.3% of his shots are from beyond the arc, an increase from his frequency in the regular season (55.3%). White is hitting 40.8% of those attempts as we enter the Finals as well.
The problem with White is that he is dependent on others creating his shots for him.
Sixty-four percent of his makes are assisted on in the playoffs and 81% of his 3-point shots. In the few chances he gets to create his own shot he isn’t at his most efficient. In the regular season he shot 35.2% on pull-up 3-point attempts, and in this postseason that figure is down to 28.6%.
Among the top choices for Boston, shot-creators like Tatum and Brown make the most sense.
As we know, Tatum is going to have the ball in his hands. He takes 7.1 3-point attempts per game, and is an efficient career shooter. It should be pointed out that he is not shooting well this postseason (29.0%), and he is hitting just 30.4% of his pull-up 3-point attempts.
Brown might be a candidate for some, but he is easy to rule out. He only takes 5.4 3-point attempts per game. Brown is knocking down 36.8% of his 3-point attempts in the playoffs. He is shooting 37.1% on pull-up 3-point attempts and 37.5% on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts.
However, the volume is just not there in order to truly threaten to win this category.
In the end, Tatum is the short shot on the board among the Celtics with the real chance of leading in this category. However, I think one long shot is worth a sprinkle.
One thing Boston is going to do in this series is force Dallas’ centers to defend the perimeter. The way it can do that – as shown in the regular season – is to consistently use Kristaps Porzingis as a pick-and-pop threat.
Porzingis went 4-of-8 in the meeting with Dallas after the trade deadline. Most of those attempts were very open, and came via a pick-and-pop action. That should be a vital part of Boston’s strategy throughout this series, and it gives Porzingis a better chance at leading the series in 3-point makes than 20/1 would indicate.
Lean(s): Jayson Tatum (+500) | Kristaps Porzingis (+2000)
Rebounds Leader
Rebounding can be somewhat random, but over the course of the series the skilled rebounders should rise to the top.
This is why Tatum is the odds-on favorite to lead the series in this category.
Tatum is the most efficient defensive rebounder on the floor in this series. He has grabbed 24.1% of opponent misses this postseason, the highest rate on the Celtics by far. It is also a higher rate than Doncic, who leads his team at 21.3%. Tatum is also the only player in this series averaging double-digit rebounds in the playoffs (10.4).
The benefit for Tatum in this category is that there is no dominant rebounding big who can grab rebounds at a higher rate.
Lively would be the biggest threat, but he is not an efficient rebounder for his position. He grabs just 20.3% of defensive rebounds and 12.3% of his team’s own misses. That is only good for the 74th percentile of centers. He is only averaging 7.2 boards per game.
Gafford is a lesser defensive rebounder than Lively, and he is a starter in title only. He will not get the workload in this series to realistically lead in rebounding, and he is not a good one to begin with.
Honestly, these are the players this market boils down to. Porzingis’ case is similar to those of Lively and Gafford. He is not an overtly dominant rebounder at his position. The Celtics will also put him on Washington defensively throughout this series, placing him farther away from rebounding opportunities.
For the sake of this article I am using DraftKings odds, but shop around. Tatum can be found to lead the series in rebounding at -105. That price has some real value in it. Tatum will be the official selection here, but I would not recommend a play at -150 to lead the series in rebounds. Hunt for that better number.
Lean: None
Assists Leader
This one is going to be short.
Doncic is the massive favorite to lead the series in assists (-700) and there is no real argument to be made against him. In fact, this market went from -600 to -700 in the days since it was hung, and I completely agree with the move.
Boston has good passers, but there is no singular creator on the team.
Tatum leads the team in assists (5.9) in the playoffs, but two others – Jrue Holiday and Derrick White – averaged 4.6 assists per game. Two others – Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard – average 2.6 and 2.3 assists respectively.
The Celtics are about ball movement. Each and every player is a threat to facilitate and create for others. That leads to a share of assists, as opposed to one player being credited for a majority of the team’s dimes.
There is no other choice here.
Lean: None
