VSiN analyst Wes Reynolds, a proud Indianapolis native, has been supporting the Pacers since the start of the NBA Finals when they were one of the largest underdogs in league history.
Heading into a Game 7 vs. the Thunder (8 ET, ABC), the line has moved from Pacers +8 to +7 at Circa with 84 percent of the handle on them.
Wes believes the move toward the Pacers is justified, if a bit late:
For the first time in the NBA Finals, the Pacers are getting market support. In all the previous games, it has been predominantly zig-zag theory from the betting market (those spots are 4-1 in the series).
This Pacers support is coming in for a few reasons:
>The Pacers have been underpriced and even disrespected all postseason. They had not lost consecutive games since March 10 until they lost Games 4 and 5 of these Finals. The numbers guys all loved the Thunder since they won 68 games and had the second-highest NET rating all-time behind the 1995-96 Bulls. However, this is a team with an average age of 25.6, the second-youngest team to reach the Finals since the NBA-ABA merger. Their youth has absolutely showed on the road as they are just 1-9 ATS in the playoffs. A potentially tighter game also seems to favor the Pacers, who have been a lot more of them (Indiana 18-12 in games decided by 7 points or less in regular season; Thunder 9-8).
>Tyrese Haliburton exceeded everyone’s expectations with his Game 6 performance and had to play just 22 minutes, so the Pacers got the best of both worlds. He gets a couple days of rest, and while not 100% (since this injury would have kept him out like a week and a half during the regular season), he showed that he can still be productive. He is averaging slightly less than 15 ppg and just 6 apg per game this series, but the Pacers have forced a Game 7 with him well below his season averages (18.6 ppg, 9.2 apg) in both categories.
>The Pacers bench, specifically Obi Toppin and TJ McConnell, has been more consistent throughout the series. The Pacers bench has outscored the Thunder on average of 41.5-30.8 (+10.7 margin) in the series. Carlisle seems to have more scoring options than the Thunder, which predominantly leans on its two young stars.
>Although both teams feel the pressure of a Game 7, more of it is on the Thunder. They are at home, have the MVP of the league, and have been the championship favorite since the start of the playoffs. The home team has won 15 of 19 Game 7s in NBA Finals history, but 14 of those 19 games have been decided by single digits.
OKC will certainly be more engaged defensively at home and has been the best all season. Indiana has to be quick and decisive against the pressure.
I think the market’s initial move has it right here.
ICYMI in yesterday’s email: Zach Cohen‘s Game 7 preview and Best Bets.
Prop master Dan Karpuc has six bets for your consideration.
Do your own research with VSiN’s NBA prop analyzer.
CWS Game 2
LSU defeated Coastal Carolina 1-0 Saturday in Game 1 of the College World Series and now has a chance to clinch the title today (2:30 ET, ABC).
Matt Grissom, proprietor of College Baseball Insiders, sets up Game 2:
Game 2 flips the home team, with Coastal starting ace Jacob Morrison (12–0, 2.08 ERA, 3.00 SIERA) against LSU’s Anthony Eyanson (11–2, 2.92 ERA, 2.24 SIERA). Our model gives LSU a slight edge again, projecting -1.04 runs and a 58% chance to win (-136).
>>Matt has some advice on how to play this one.
LSU supporters are certainly doing their part as you can see from the Jello Shot Challenge scoreboard at Rocco’s in Omaha.
NASCAR Best Bets
Steve Makinen‘s race simulations are on a nice run and he has posted his final one for today’s race at Pocono:
In the midst of the hottest streak the simulation has had since development, winning five of the L8 races outright with projected winners, this week’s final simulation for Pocono finds William Byron holding on to the top spot after he was the initial simulation winner on Tuesday as well. He is followed closely by Denny Hamlin then there is a slight drop off to Tyler Reddick, Chris Beuscher, and Ryan Blaney. Any of those five a threats to win in my opinion.
Pocono is not a great underdog track typically, but if I was to pick a few longshots, Bubba Wallace would lead the way. Here are my race projections:
Top 5: Byron, Hamlin, Blaney, Reddick, Larson
Top underdogs to consider: Gibbs, Wallace, Hocevar, McDowell
Favorites to struggle: Bowman, Chastain, Logano
MLB Today
Greg Peterson has Best Bets for today’s menu.
Steve Makinen and Josh Appelbaum will file their daily contributions later this morning.
Quick Hits
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