The end of the 2025-26 NBA regular season is rapidly approaching, and Friday, April 3 delivered some big-time news and futures movement that bettors should be aware of. The biggest news: Luka Doncic will miss the rest of the regular season — and seemingly some of the NBA Playoffs — with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. He suffered that injury in a 139-96 loss to the Thunder on Thursday, and it’s a brutal blow to the Lakers. Friday also saw the release of ESPN’s final straw poll, showing how 100 media members would vote for the NBA’s Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year awards. The results of that poll completely shook betting markets. We’ll get into all of it below.
Luka’s injury
Doncic was on the outside looking in for the MVP award, despite averaging 33.5 points, 8.3 assists, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game — and sitting fifth in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (+6.8) and third in Value Over Replacement Player (6.5). With that in mind, the fact that Doncic is no longer eligible to win that award isn’t a huge deal. However, Doncic was likely looking at a spot on the All-NBA First Team. He’ll no longer be eligible for that, though his agents did release a statement saying that they’re requesting a waiver through the National Basketball Players Association.
The good news for Doncic is that this injury won’t cost him a supermax, even though there is an All-NBA tie-in there. The bad news is that the trade from Dallas to Los Angeles already did that. Now, Doncic’s path to a contract worth 35% of the salary cap is through years of service, so he’ll get paid when he hits 10 years in the league — which will be in 2028. That contract could be a five-year deal that pays him roughly $417 million. Until then, he’ll have to get by on a modest $49.5 million.
All in all, this injury won’t cost Doncic too much personally, even if he does deserve recognition for a fantastic season. However, it will hurt his chances of trying to compete for a title this year, as the Lakers’ hopes have taken a massive hit. If Doncic misses a couple of playoff games, it’s going to be very hard for Los Angeles to win a first-round series in the highly-competitive Western Conference.
BetMGM moved the Lakers from 14-1 to 55-1 to win the Western Conference — and 25-1 to 150-1 to win the NBA title.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander now overwhelming MVP favorite
Victor Wembanyama has been lobbying to win the 2025-26 MVP award. He has been emphasizing his defensive impact when talking to the media after games, and he has played some tremendous basketball recently. Wembanyama’s averages are actually ridiculous at this point, as he’s at 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 4.1 “stocks” (steals and blocks) per game. He’s also No. 1 in the NBA when looking at Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (+8.6), and he has the most significant On/Off splits of any of the MVP candidates. However, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the top player in the NBA when looking at Estimated Plus-Minus (+9.2) and Estimated Wins (18.0), and he’s averaging 31.6 points and 6.5 assists per game on absurd 55.1/38.0/88.1 shooting splits.
Gilgeous-Alexander is having one of the most impressive offensive seasons in NBA history, and he has led the Thunder to a league-best record while playing without Jalen Williams for a good chunk of the season. Ultimately, all of that has resonated with important members of the media, as ESPN’s final straw poll revealed that Gilgeous-Alexander received 88 of the 100 available first-place votes to win his second consecutive MVP award. That doesn’t mean this is over, but it’s a pretty good indicator that it’s heading that way. Now, after being in the -400 to -500 range heading into Thursday night’s games, the straw poll results have SGA sitting at -1600 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kon Knueppel looks like the ROTY
The ESPN straw poll also revealed an 80-20 advantage for Kon Knueppel over Cooper Flagg when looking at the Rookie of the Year award. This has been something that I have been pushing for a couple of weeks on Hardwood Handicappers — a daily podcast we do every Monday to Friday.
Flagg’s traditional numbers look a bit better than Knueppel’s. The Mavericks’ stud wing is averaging 20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game, while Knueppel is averaging 18.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game for the Hornets. However, Knueppel’s 48.2/43.1/86.3 shooting splits are a heck of a lot better than Flagg’s 46.7/27.8/81.2. Knueppel is also the top 3-point shooter in the league, and he’s doing it for a Hornets team that could very well make the postseason. On top of that, Knueppel’s advanced numbers are much better than Flagg’s.
However, despite the fact that Knueppel has been the better rookie over the course of the 2025-26 season, there was some doubt as to whether he’d actually win the award. Well, the straw poll results seemingly removed that doubt. With Knueppel dominating the voting, the Charlotte rookie moved all the way out to -2500 to win ROTY at one prominent shop. The best price you can find on him now is -1200.
