Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for December 15.
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NBA Best Bets Today – Monday, December 15
Celtics ML (-122 – 1.5 units) vs. Pistons
Pistons at Celtics – 7:00 pm ET
We already saw Boston take Detroit down this year, so why not back the Celtics to do it again? After all, Jaylen Brown went 12 for 32 from the floor in that most recent meeting, and the superstar really should play a little better this time around. He’s one of the Celtics players that should really benefit from Boston having not played since December 11. The Celtics are also 15-6 straight-up under Joe Mazzulla when playing with at least three days of rest, so the extra time of rest and preparation could be big. I’ll also add that Boston is 21-5 SU as a home favorite of 6 or fewer under Mazzulla. Meanwhile, Detroit is just 13-15 SU in games with lines of +3 to -3 under JB Bickerstaff.
I also just generally like this matchup for the Celtics. Boston is second in the NBA in made 3s per game (15.9); Detroit is down at 28th (11.2). That made a huge difference when the Celtics earned a 117-114 win over the Pistons on November 26. Boston knocked down 20 triples in that game, but Detroit made only 11. And while that might not seem like something we’ll see again, how can you be so sure? One of these teams will be firing away — the other won’t.
Jazz ML (+107) vs. Mavericks
Mavericks at Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Anthony Davis and Daniel Gafford are listed as questionable tonight for the Mavericks, who are already without Dereck Lively II and Kyrie Irving. However, I like the Jazz to win this thing no matter what. I have actually been praising Dallas quite a bit recently, but they’re still a below-average NBA team. And these are the types of teams that Utah can beat in Salt Lake City.
Under Will Hardy, the Jazz are 20-14 SU in home games with lines of +3 to -3. They’re also 18-14 SU when facing teams with winning percentages of 25% to 40%. Utah obviously hasn’t been a great team under Hardy, but this team has been well-coached and can occasionally be dangerous offensively. We’ll just have to hope Lauri Markkanen stays off the injury report. He’s not on it at the moment, but he’s always a threat to pop up with the Jazz hoping for a top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
It’s just hard not to feel like Utah’s defense will be ratcheted up a little at home, and the Jazz are undeniably a better offensive team than the Mavericks. That should give Utah a good shot of getting in the win column. Don’t be surprised if this is a big Keyonte George game. I’m not sure Dallas has the point-of-attack defenders required to stay in front of him.
Rockets +1.5 (-105) vs. Nuggets
Rockets at Nuggets – 9:30 pm ET
The Nuggets beat the Rockets in Houston in the NBA Cup a couple of weeks ago, so I think this is a spot in which Ime Udoka’s squad will be looking for some revenge. And under Udoka, the Rockets are 31-21-1 against the spread when looking to avenge a same-season loss.
Houston is also statistically better than Denver right now. The Rockets have the second-best adjusted net rating (+8.4) in basketball. That’s one spot higher than the Nuggets (+6.7). Of course, playing at Ball Arena might level things a little bit. However, I’m not sure playing at home will be enough with Denver missing Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon. Those are two of the best defenders on a weak defensive team. Houston, which is third in the NBA in adjusted offensive rating (119.8), should be able to take advantage of those absences. And I’d be surprised if Kevin Durant isn’t one of the players that really pops off. I don’t love anybody the Nuggets can throw on him with Gordon out.
It’s also hard not to feel like some of the things we saw last meeting will change. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined for 60 points the last time, which is probably something they can do again. However, will they do it on 21 for 36 shooting again? That efficiency could be hard to repeat against an elite Houston defense. Alperen Sengun was also just 6 for 14 from the floor, finishing as a -16 in 36 minutes for the Rockets. I think he’ll be a lot better this time around. He dominated Jokic at EuroBasket over the summer, so there are things about this matchup that he enjoys.
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2025-26 NBA Record: 180-167 (+10.64 units)
Check out today’s episode of Hardwood Handicappers! I dove into all of this (and more) on the podcast!
