Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for December 18.
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NBA Best Bets Today – Thursday, December 18
Pelicans +10 (-108) vs. Rockets
Rockets at Pelicans – 8:00 pm ET
If you listen to Hardwood Handicappers, you probably know I’m high on the Rockets. I believe Houston is right there with Oklahoma City and Denver in the Western Conference’s group of legitimate contenders. However, the Rockets do come into this one having failed to cover in three consecutive games. They really haven’t been playing all that well. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have won two consecutive games. They’re also 11-3 against the spread over the last 14 games.
New Orleans has just been a very competitive team recently. The Pelicans also got Zion Williamson back last game. The talented forward gave them 18 points, six rebounds, and three assists in 27 minutes of action, and they suddenly have a very talented rotation. That said, this really feels like a game that New Orleans can keep close.
The Rockets will likely dominate the offensive glass here, as they’re the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA and the Pelicans have a relatively small frontcourt. However, I do think Jeremiah Fears can give the Rockets some problems with his ability to get to the basket, and I also like some of New Orleans’ other shot-creation options. If they can play fast, they can make things very interesting.
Houston is also just 6-8 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Ime Udoka. That said, the team isn’t exactly trustworthy when it comes to blowing out lesser opponents away from home. Meanwhile, though New Orleans is 0-6 straight-up when facing teams that outscore opponents by 3.0 or more points per game, the Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in such games. They’ve been holding up their end of the bargain against elite competition.
Mavericks +6 (-114) vs. Pistons
Pistons at Mavericks – 8:30 pm ET
There’s no guarantee Anthony Davis will be out there for this game, making a play on Dallas somewhat risky. However, the Mavericks have had two full days of rest, so maybe he has had enough time to get right.
While the Mavericks are coming off a loss to the Jazz, they are 44-23-1 ATS under Jason Kidd when coming off losses in which they were favorites. They’re also 32-28-1 ATS as home underdogs since Kidd became head coach.
It’s also hard not to like the fact that Dallas is tied for seventh in the NBA in defensive rating (112.6). While I like this Detroit team, the group can occasionally struggle offensively. That’s why it’s a little hard to imagine the Pistons winning this game in convincing fashion. Are we sure they can generate efficient enough offense against a feisty Mavericks group?
If Davis plays, I think there’s a real chance Dallas forces Detroit to play an extremely sloppy game. Then, offensively, the Mavericks should be able to scrape together enough to make this a battle.
If Davis doesn’t play, things will get a heck of a lot tougher. However, that’s the nature of the beast when betting the NBA.
Additional Best Bets (Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
PARLAY: Pacers Alt +10.5 vs. Knicks & Suns Alt +8.5 vs. Warriors (-118 – 1.5 units)
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2025-26 NBA Record: 184-172 (+8.83 units)
Check out today’s episode of Hardwood Handicappers! I dove into all of this (and more) on the podcast!
