Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for March 4.
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NBA Best Bets Today – Wednesday, March 4
Hornets +7.5 (-120) vs. Celtics
Hornets at Celtics – 7:30 pm ET
Since January 15, very little separates Charlotte and Boston. Both teams are 17-5 since that date, with the Hornets having a +11.3 Point Differential and the Celtics having a +12.0 Point Differential. Charlotte is also No. 2 in the NBA in points per 100 possessions (121.4) in that span, and the team is also No. 6 in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.1). Meanwhile, Boston is No. 3 in points per 100 possessions (119.3) and No. 1 in points allowed per 100 possessions (107.3).
The Celtics have undoubtedly been awesome lately, and the return of Jayson Tatum could come any day now. However, I do feel pretty strongly about Charlotte having a more talented roster than a Tatum-less Boston team. The Hornets are also coached by Charles Lee, who worked under Joe Mazzulla and should be pretty familiar with everything the Celtics want to do. With that in mind, Charlotte really should be able to avoid embarrassment this evening, even if Boston ends up in the win column.
Keep an eye on the center spot in this one, as I can see Moussa Diabate’s activity getting Neemias Queta into foul trouble — and being too much for backup Nikola Vucevic. Also, LaMelo Ball has always played well against the Celtics. In 10 meetings with Boston, he’s averaging 27.6 points, 7.5 assists, and 6.5 rebounds per game. Well, if Ball can turn in a strong performance here, there’s a good chance the Hornets backcourt outplays the Celtics backcourt.
Of course, it should be noted that Charlotte is playing the second leg of a back-to-back here. However, the Hornets are 5-1 both straight-up and against the spread when playing on the road on a back-to-back.
Bucks ML (-115) vs. Hawks
Hawks at Bucks – 9:30 pm ET
This isn’t a great rest spot for the Bucks, but it is a must-win game for them. Milwaukee is still chasing a Play-In spot this season, and Atlanta is one of the teams ahead of Doc Rivers’ group. That said, if the Bucks want to make the postseason, they absolutely can’t afford to let this game get away. And I don’t think they will.
Only six teams in the NBA do a worse job defending around the rim than Atlanta goes, and that’s problematic when going up against Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak simply should have a lot of success putting his head down and going to the rim in this one. Also, the Hawks are the worst team in the NBA when it comes to defending in isolation, which benefits Antetokounmpo and some of Milwaukee’s rock-solid guards.
Atlanta is also just 35-54 SU as a road underdog under Quin Snyder, and the team is also 35-49 SU when playing in games with lines of +3 to -3 under him.
Added Plays (Late Picks, Parlays, Teasers, Futures)
PARLAY: Knicks Alt +8.5 vs. Thunder & Blazers ML vs. Grizzlies (-122)
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2025-26 NBA Record: 368-353 (+4.56 units)
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