Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for October 21.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:00 pm ET
I gave out Golden State -125 on my Monday night Cashing Out spot with Dustin Swedelson, and I also added that pick to the VSiN picks page for subscribers. The number has since ballooned to -145, but I’d still recommend backing the Warriors up to -150.
Once Jimmy Butler arrived in Golden State, the Warriors allowed only 109.9 points per 100 possessions — the best mark in basketball, per Cleaning The Glass. This is an elite defensive team, with Butler hounding opposing wings, Draymond Green continuing as an all-world defensive big, and the rest of the roster swarming to make plays. That defense should ultimately be the difference in a meeting with the Lakers.
Los Angeles should get a big night out of Luka Doncic, who, now fit enough to grace the cover of Men’s Health, will see a sky-high usage rate until LeBron James returns from sciatica. Still, Golden State will at least make things difficult for him. The Warriors have bodies to throw at Doncic, will mix up coverages, and should make other Lakers uncomfortable. Deandre Ayton could stand out as a weak link for LA tonight. A slow decision-maker, Ayton might struggle in his first game with the Lakers — especially with Al Horford and Green defending him.
Offensively, the Warriors can absolutely torch this Lakers team. Los Angeles really only features two rotation players who’ve proven themselves as quality defenders: Marcus Smart and Jarred Vanderbilt. However, it’s unclear how much either will play. Everyone else should be extremely beatable. And while the Lakers do a decent job of defending in JJ Redick’s scheme, breakdowns are inevitable — especially against a Golden State offense that’s a perpetual motion machine.
This version of the Warriors offense could be even more dangerous. While Horford is getting up there in age, he provides Golden State with the kind of floor spacing that Quinten Post offered last season, but the veteran is a much better passer and all-around decision-maker. He’ll be on a minutes restriction early, and potentially all year, but he’ll tie the starting lineup together nicely.
This could also be a game where Stephen Curry rattles off a few of his signature flurries. With Smart coming off the bench for LA, the Lakers will start either Austin Reaves or Gabe Vincent on him — a guard equivalent of a “BBQ chicken alert.”
Also worth noting: Los Angeles was just 15-20 straight-up as an underdog in Redick’s first season. Meanwhile, Golden State is 31-11 SU as a road favorite since the start of 2023-24.
Considering all of that, in a game where offense will be front and center, give me the team I trust to come up with a few extra stops.
Bet: Warriors ML (-125)
