Every night of the 2025-26 NBA season gives us a fresh set of games and numbers to pick apart. This daily column digs into the best sides and totals on the board, using in-depth basketball analysis, betting trends, and our VSiN NBA betting splits to spot value. We’ll also be tackling these slates relentlessly on our live VSiN programming, which is why basketball fans should really consider a VSiN Pro subscription. Below you’ll find some NBA picks and predictions for October 23.
Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Since Steve Kerr became the head coach of the Warriors, Golden State is 41-25 straight-up and 41-23-2 against the spread at home in games with lines of +3 to -3. The Warriors are also 69-42 SU and 62-49 ATS as home favorites of 6 or fewer under Kerr.
Golden State also happens to be playing in its home opener, meaning there will be some serious energy inside the Chase Center. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green generally respond when playing in front of these types of crowds, and I like that this is an early opportunity for a good Warriors team to make a huge statement.
All summer long, Denver has been lauded for a fantastic offseason. The Nuggets are now considered legitimate NBA title contenders after swapping Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson, while also adding Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, and Bruce Brown. However, Curry and Co. definitely feel as though they have what it takes to win another ring.
Last year, after acquiring Jimmy Butler, Golden State was the best defensive team in basketball based on points allowed per 100 possessions. The Warriors also led the NBA in opponent turnovers per game in that span. With Butler and Green doing their things on defense, Golden State will remain an elite defensive group. We saw that immediately to start this season, with the Warriors holding the Lakers to 110.1 points per 100 possessions. Luka Doncic put up some big numbers, but Golden State was flying around and holding serve against everybody else.
The Warriors also looked quite good offensively, even with a pedestrian performance from Curry. The superstar had only 23 points in the victory, but Butler and Jonathan Kuminga picked up the slack. Butler had 31 points on only 14 shots, getting to the line 16 times and knocking down all of those free throws. And Kuminga came up absolutely huge, finishing with 17 points, nine boards, and six assists. Some more of that from Kuminga could launch Golden State into the title picture.
As far as this specific game goes, there’s no such thing as actually stopping Nikola Jokic, but the Warriors will have Green and Al Horford to do what they can to limit the Serbian’s damage. And Golden State should be able to do alright defending everybody else.
However, this is a game in which the Warriors offense should be the story. When these teams met towards the end of last season, Golden State won 118-104 and shot 48.9% from the floor and 42.1% from deep. Curry and Brandin Podziemski combined to score 62 points, and Butler chipped in with 19. The Nuggets might be a better team this season, but they might not be better suited to defend this specific team. And even if they are, it’s hard to expect it in Golden State’s home opener.
Bet: Warriors -1.5 (-115)
