On Friday, April 18th, the Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner of this will keep their season alive and face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.
Keep reading for Grizzlies vs. Mavericks odds and predictions, and make sure you come back to VSiN throughout the course of the NBA Playoffs. We’ll have previews of every single series and daily best bets/player props. We’ll also have betting trends and insights from our analytics guru Steve Makinen. Of course, we’ll also be talking about all of this on our live programming too! It’s a great time to be a VSiN subscriber, so make sure you check out our $59 Summer Special. That’ll give you full access to everything we have to offer until August 1st!
How To Watch Mavericks vs. Grizzlies
Where: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee
When: 9:40 pm ET on Friday, April 18th
Channel: ESPN
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Thursday, April 17th at 12:30 pm ET)
Moneyline: Grizzlies -270, Mavericks +220
Spread: Grizzlies -6.5 (-110), Mavericks +6.5 (-110)(-115)
Total: Over 221.5 (-110), Under 221.5 (-110)
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Prediction
Nico Harrison consistently noted that “defense wins championships” during his media availability the other day, and Dallas did play well defensively in a 120-106 win over Sacramento on Wednesday. But the offense might have been the real story of the game, as the Mavericks lit the Kings up. Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points in 35 minutes, and Klay Thompson added 23 points on 8 for 11 shooting from the floor and 5 for 7 shooting from 3. Sacramento really had no answer for Dallas, with a 44-point second quarter for the Mavs being the real turning point in the game.
Dallas is now expected to go into Memphis and lose, which would mark the end of one of the weirdest seasons in NBA history. Obviously, it’s not a given that the Mavericks will lose, but the Grizzlies looked good in a loss to the Warriors the other night. They’re the more talented team when looking at these two, and they’d probably put up a better fight against the top-seeded Thunder. However, I’m not looking to the sides in this one. I think Dallas is a little better than its public perception, so I can see a world in which this is close. But I don’t trust the Mavericks enough to back them. Instead, I’m just looking to the Over.
I was on the Over in the Mavericks-Kings game, noting that Dallas has largely been an Over team over the last few weeks. The Over is 15-4 in the last 19 games the Mavericks have played, and it’s also 8-2 in the 10 games Davis has played with the organization. On top of that, the Over is 47-35-1 in the games the Grizzlies have played this season, and it’s 3-1 in the last four games Memphis has played.
With the Grizzlies, it’s hard not to see some value in backing Overs. This is a team that is a bit of a nightmare defensively, but Memphis does have a lot of firepower. So, this is a team that is looking to win high-scoring affairs. And I’m not sure I see Dallas finding a way to slow Ja Morant and Co. down here. The Mavericks do compete extremely hard, which says a lot about Jason Kidd’s ability to motivate during a tumultuous season. But Morant should live in the paint in this game, if he’s even remotely healthy after suffering a rough-looking ankle sprain last game. And once he gets there, he’ll either explode for some tough finishes, or kick out to open shooters as the Dallas defense collapses.
For the Mavericks, it’s a little harder to see it. They’re not exactly loaded with offensive talent now that Kyrie Irving is out — and Luka Doncic is in Los Angeles. But it’s definitely easier to score when you’re playing a team like the Grizzlies. Since the All-Star break, Memphis is allowing opponents to make 15.3 triples per game, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Opponents also shot 37.9% from 3 in that span, which was the fifth-highest mark in the league. So, there will be opportunities for Dallas to knock down some shots, and there should also be openings for the guards to blow by Zach Edey for some easy buckets at the rim. That said, even though the Mavericks aren’t as talented as the Grizzlies, they should be able to do their part with the Over.
This is also a game in which Dunks & Threes predictive EPM has Memphis winning 121-115. That’s 236 predicted points, which is way higher than the total. Well, I am big on the Dunks & Threes metrics, so that’s pretty significant. Also, Steve Makinen had an estimated total of 222.5 on this one, so even that is a little higher than where this is.
Best Bet: Over 221.5 (-110)
