On Friday, April 18th, the Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner of this will keep their season alive and face the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers in Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs.
Keep reading for Heat vs. Hawks odds and predictions, and make sure you come back to VSiN throughout the course of the NBA Playoffs. We’ll have previews of every single series and daily best bets/player props. We’ll also have betting trends and insights from our analytics guru Steve Makinen. Of course, we’ll also be talking about all of this on our live programming too! It’s a great time to be a VSiN subscriber, so make sure you check out our $59 Summer Special. That’ll give you full access to everything we have to offer until August 1st!
How To Watch Heat vs. Hawks
Where: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia
When: 7:00 pm ET on Friday, April 18th
Channel: TNT
Heat vs. Hawks Odds
(Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and accurate as of Thursday, April 17th at 11:30 am ET)
Moneyline: Hawks -110, Heat -110
Spread: Hawks -1 (-105), Hawks +1 (-115)
Total: Over 219 (-110), Under 219 (-110)
Heat vs. Hawks Prediction
We have never seen a 10th seed advance to the playoffs through the NBA Play-In Tournament, but that could very well change this year. The Hawks are hosting the Heat to determine who will face the Cavaliers, and this eighth-seeded Atlanta team is barely favored — if favored at all. The No. 10 is also alive in the Western Conference.
The first Play-In games we saw with these teams might have something to do with the pricing. Atlanta got trounced by an Orlando team that is pitiful offensively, and Miami went into Chicago and beat the pulp out of a Bulls team that was scorching hot to end the season. The Heat also happened to beat the Hawks in Miami on March 27th, winning 122-112 in what was an awesome offensive performance for Erik Spoelstra’s group. The Heat got 36 points out of Tyler Herro and had six other players score in double figures. All in all, Miami shot 53.7% from the floor and 54.5% from 3 in a masterful effort. But I’ll be honest, I have a hard time seeing the Heat reaching those heights offensively again — especially after a very strong game on Wednesday.
While Miami has been a solid team recently, the Heat are mostly a defensive-minded group. Since March 1st, they’re 15th in the league in Efficiency Differential (+3.1) and a lot of that has to do with the team being Top 10 in points allowed per 100 possessions (111.7). Also, during the regular season, Miami was outside of the Top 10 in made 3s per game (13.7 ) and 3-point shooting percentage (36.7%). So, the team’s 18 for 33 performance the last time it faced Atlanta really feels like something that will be hard to replicate — even with the Hawks being a miserable team when it comes to 3-point defense.
Atlanta also should be able to do a decent job of containing Miami in a playoff setting. Herro went off the last time these teams played, and he was brilliant against the Bulls on Wednesday. But Dyson Daniels should be able to prevent him from lighting it up again. I also like the matchup of Onyeka Okongwu on Bam Adebayo, as he’s another quick, undersized big that moves well and has a lot of strength. I don’t see him being bullied in this game. So, if the Hawks can just do a decent job of keeping guys like Andrew Wiggins and some of the other Heat role players from going crazy, they should be able to get back on track at home.
It doesn’t hurt that the law of averages suggests Atlanta should bounce back in a major way after a disaster in Orlando. The Hawks aren’t a great offensive team, but they’re better than they showed in a game where they shot 38.1% from the floor and 19.0% from 3. At the very least, I expect Trae Young to have a big game. He’ll just need some help from somewhere, but he’s more likely to get it in a home game.
Realistically, very little separates these two teams, but the Hawks have been the tiniest bit better for most of the season. And home-court advantage should make a difference here. Miami was just 17-23 with a net rating of -0.9 on the road during the regular season.
Atlanta is also 32-29 straight-up when coming off a road loss under Quin Snyder, and the team is also 17-15 SU when facing opponents with winning percentages of 40% to 49% in that span. Meanwhile, since the start of the 2022-23 season, Miami is 31-48 as a road underdog. The team is also 17-29 as a road underdog of 6 or fewer points since then. The Heat are also just 9-13 SU when facing teams with winning percentages of 40% to 49% in that span. So, this definitely looks like more of a sweet spot for Atlanta than it does Miami.
However, I will not that this is a lean and not a play for me. If you want an official play from me for Friday, I have one for the meeting between the Mavericks and Grizzlies.
Lean: Hawks ML (-110)
