Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for October 21. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:30 pm ET
Cason Wallace Over 7.5 Points (-125)
Last season, Cason Wallace played at least 30 minutes in 28 games, averaging 11.0 points per game. Three of those games were played against the Rockets, and Wallace averaged 11.0 points per game in those contests, too. Well, with Jalen Williams out indefinitely as he recovers from right wrist surgery, Wallace should be in line to play at least 30 minutes a night — especially with Isaiah Joe and Kenrich Williams also out on Opening Night.
Wallace also happened to average 8.4 points per game last season, meaning a 7.5-point total is a low mark no matter how many minutes he’s playing. It’s also worth noting that Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. are starting for Houston at shooting guard and small forward, respectively. Both players are plenty capable of guarding wings — and defending in a team setting — but neither one should be defending guards. If Wallace gets opportunities to create off the bounce, he should be able to get himself into the paint. There should also be opportunities for him to cut to the basket, or free himself up for open triples by being diligent as an off-ball mover.
Amen Thompson Over 0.5 Made Threes (+120 – 0.5 units)
Thompson only made 0.4 triples per game last year. He also attempted only 1.3 per game. However, the 22-year-old appears to be committed to working the three-ball in a little more this season. He went 4 for 6 from downtown in three preseason games, knocking down at least one in each game. Thompson also did that despite playing only 25.0 minutes per game.
Tonight, there’s a good chance the Thunder play off him, hoping he launches a couple of jumpers instead of driving to the basket. That makes it hard not to like Thompson to hit the bottom of the net at least once — especially at plus-money odds. I’ll also note that Thompson went 11 for 12 from the charity stripe over three preseason games, including a performance against the Pelicans in which he went 9 for 9. It’s clear a lot of work is going into his shot. For 0.5 units, I’m willing to bet on that work paying off. Thompson actually made two threes against Oklahoma City in his final meeting with the team in the 2024-25 regular season.
