Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for October 23. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges for Thursday
Below you’ll find some of the projections that stood out when looking at our OptaAI NBA Player Prop projections. Subscribers have access to hundreds of others on a daily basis!
Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-108)
Thunder at Pacers – 7:30 pm ET
Holmgren stole the show on Opening Night, finishing with 28 points, seven rebounds, and two assists in Oklahoma City’s double overtime win over Houston. Our OptaAI player prop projections like him to have another big night, predicting 32.99 combined points, rebounds, and assists. That’s a nice edge to the Over on his total of 28.5, which is available at -108 at FanDuel.
Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 Assists (-135)
Nuggets at Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Jokic is the best passing big man in the league, but OptaAI has the Serbian going for only 8.42 assists in tonight’s meeting with Golden State. Perhaps that makes the Under on his assist total of 9.5 worthy of a look. Jokic averaged only 7.5 assists per game against this Warriors team last year, and Golden State is one of the best defensive teams in basketball.
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find what I’m personally playing on the player prop market for Thursday. My official plays are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Obi Toppin Over 10.5 Points (-125)
Thunder at Pacers – 7:30 pm ET
The Pacers are hoping to address the center position with a committee that includes Isaiah Jackson, Jay Huff, James Wiseman, and Tony Bradley, but playing Obi Toppin as a small-ball five might be their best path to success. That should mean that Toppin will easily clear last year’s 19.6 minutes per game. He was already doing that by the time the playoffs rolled around last year, and he even played 23.9 per contest against this Thunder team in the finals.
In that series, Toppin averaged 11.0 points per game, despite the fact that he had zero in Game 7. Toppin also averaged 18.5 points per game in the final two home games he played in that series, making 11 points a pretty reasonable expectation for tonight.
With Tyrese Haliburton and Turner gone, there will be shots to go around for this Indiana offense. Toppin should be a beneficiary there. Also, this is one in which my handicap lines up with the OptaAI projections, which have him going for 12.94 points in this one.
MORE: In addition to these NBA player props, I also have one side for Thursday!
