Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for January 6. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
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Tuesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Tuesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Andrew Nembhard Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-120) vs. Cavaliers
Cavaliers at Pacers – 7:00 pm ET
Will the Pacers keep this game somewhat competitive? If so, Nembhard really should have a pretty big game. With Bennedict Mathurin out, there’s just a lot more on his plate offensively. In the six games that Nembhard has played without Mathurin this year, he’s averaging 20.7 points and 7.7 assists per game. Those are some strong numbers. And I’m looking for some rebounds out of the guard instead of just going for his points and assists total, as I think he’s a little better as a rebounder than he has shown lately.
I just like this matchup for Nembhard. Cleveland is weak at defending spot-up jumpers, so he should get some looks when other players are taking their turns running the offense. The Cavaliers are also miserable at defending in isolation, plus they can be guilty of fouling a lot. Nembhard should take advantage of all of that.
Anthony Black Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125) vs. Wizards
Magic at Wizards – 7:00 pm ET
Jalen Suggs is listed as doubtful for the Magic tonight. That’s not a good thing for Orlando, but it should mean good things for Black’s numbers in the box score. In the last seven games that Black has played without Suggs, the long, talented guard is averaging 25.3 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game. That’s good for 35.3 combined points, rebounds, and assists per game, and I don’t think anything about this has been fluky. Black still has to prove his jumper is legitimate, as climbing from 31.8% to 35.0% on increased 3-point volume will always raise some eyebrows. However, he’s looking more confident when left open, he’s dangerous attacking downhill, and he just has a really impressive ability to change pace and keep opponents off balance.
Tonight, Black’s offense should be there. The Wizards are 24th in the NBA defending at the rim, where Black scores 49% of his points. Washington is also weak when it comes to defending spot-up 3s — especially in the non-corners. That should mean Black will get some good looks from deep. I also think Black can make the Wizards pay for their inability to defend in transition, guard without fouling, and stop good pick-and-roll decision makers. That said, I think you can expect a big outing from Black when it comes to points and assists, and he’s always a threat to chip in some boards.
Naji Marshall Over 12.5 Points (-118) vs. Kings
Mavericks at Kings – 11:00 pm ET
Marshall has been a go-to guy for me this season. He seems to consistently make a mark on the stat sheet, even while having a low usage rate in the Dallas offense. However, the wing has taken a step back lately, as the Mavericks are getting a little healthier. But Marshall should have opportunities tonight. PJ Washington is listed as doubtful for Dallas this evening, meaning Marshall really should play at least 30 minutes. Well, if he does, I think he’ll be pretty damn productive as a scorer.
The Kings aren’t all that bad when it comes to defending the rim, but they’re the worst team in basketball defending inside 10 feet. That should tell you how bad Sacramento is at guarding short mid-range shots and floaters, which make up 55% of Marshall’s scoring. The Kings are also pretty weak when it comes to guarding in transition, which is another area Marshall can hurt them.
Realistically, if Marshall finds a way to knock down a 3 or two, he should pretty easily finish with 13 points.
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Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Cooper Flagg Under 21.5 Points (-111) vs. Kings
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 18.60 points.
Santi Aldama Over 6.5 Rebounds (-141) vs. Spurs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 8.42 rebounds.
Luka Doncic Under 9.5 Assists (-131) vs. Pelicans
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 8.27 assists.
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