Player props have become one of the NBA’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value beyond the standard spread or total. Each night, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from points and rebounds to assists and combo lines — using matchup data, recent performance, and betting trends to find edges. Keep reading for the top NBA player prop picks for March 25. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the NBA, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Wednesday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Wednesday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record.
Sam Merrill Over 12.5 Points (-125) vs. Heat
Heat at Cavaliers – 7:30 pm ET
I had Merrill to go Over 11.5 points last night, but I’m not done backing the marksman just yet. While Merrill has struggled a bit against Miami, the numbers say that this is a good matchup for him. While the Heat are fifth in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating (112.4), they play at the fastest pace in the NBA (104.6). That makes it a little easier on offensive players to find a rhythm, as these games are played in an up-and-down style and feature more possessions. Miami is also a team that struggles to defend above-the-break 3s, ranking 23rd in the NBA guarding that part of the floor. Well, Merrill scores 63% of his points on non-corner 3s, so he should get some quality looks here. Merrill could also play a good chunk of minutes tonight, as Jaylon Tyson is out for Cleveland. I also just believe that Kenny Atkinson will need Merrill’s shot-making ability in what should be a track meet. Having him out there makes life easier on James Harden and Donovan Mitchell.
Ace Bailey Over 2.5 Assists (-112 – 1.5 units) & Alt Assists 4+ (+230 – 0.5 units) vs. Wizards
Wizards at Jazz – 9:00 pm ET
Bailey has been going nuclear as a scorer, averaging 31.7 points per game over the last three contests. Well, tonight’s meeting with the Wizards offers up another opportunity for the talented rookie to go wild as a shot-maker, and I think he’ll be pretty productive as a scorer. However, I actually like Bailey to finish with three assists here. Bailey has had at least three dimes in each of the last three contests, and he’s averaging 7.0 potential assists per game in this recent stretch. Sure, the rookie is more of a score-first player, but a usage rate of 33.2% means he’s getting chances to do everything. And tonight, he’s going up against a Washington defense that is near the bottom of the NBA defending catch-and-shoot looks, transition plays, above-the-break 3s, and shots inside 10 feet. That said, while there will be a lot for Bailey to take advantage of himself, he’ll also find his teammates wide open rather often — especially in what should be a high-pace matchup. I’ll also add that Bailey isn’t just averaging 7.0 potential assists per game in the last three, but he’s also at 4.3 adjusted assists per game. That means he’d be doing some more damage as a passer with better luck, and this will be the softest defense he has faced in some time. Let’s just hope he stays out of foul trouble. I feel like he picks up quick fouls every time I take him.
Kyle Anderson Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100) vs. Rockets
Rockets at Timberwolves – 9:30 pm ET
Anderson has had at least 13 combined points, rebounds, and assists in three of the last four games. He’s seeing some good rotation minutes with Minnesota, and I don’t see that changing while Anthony Edwards is out. With that in mind, I like Anderson to stuff the stat sheet against the Rockets. Anderson isn’t necessarily great at anything, but he’s pretty good at everything. If he needs to score, he can do it. He’s also a very good playmaker for a bigger wing, and his size makes him a presence on the glass. But overall, the reason I’m playing Anderson tonight is his mind. He has a very high basketball IQ, which is why he has been able to stick in the NBA despite moving like me after eating In-N-Out. He processes the game at a remarkably high level, which should serve him well against a Rockets defense that is struggling right now.
Draymond Green Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-140) vs. Nets
Nets at Warriors – 10:00 pm ET
Green has gone Over 19.5 PRA in seven of his last nine games, so he’s consistently going over this number — which is why it’s heavily juiced. Well, with the Nets being the matchup this evening, I can’t see Green turning in a dud of a performance. This Brooklyn team is 26th in the NBA defending inside 10 feet, and the team is also 28th defending spot-up jumpers. That means Green should be in good shape as a scorer. Then, as a passer, Green should be able to find some cutters for easy buckets at the rim, plus we’ll also see some handoffs go for open jumpers. On top of that, Green is always a good threat to rack up a bunch of rebounds.
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the OptaAI Player Props pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Joel Embiid Over 22.5 Points (-116) vs. Bulls
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 26.13 points.
Victor Wembanyama Under 12.5 Rebounds (-113) vs. Grizzlies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 9.60 rebounds.
Darius Garland Over 6.5 Assists (-150) vs. Raptors
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him projected for 8.05 assists.
More NBA Content
Listen to Hardwood Handicappers – I’m breaking down the night’s action every Monday to Friday!
