Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, June 19
As the NBA Finals return to Indianapolis for a pivotal Game Six, the biggest storyline looming over Thursday night is the uncertain status of Tyrese Haliburton. Officially listed as questionable with a lingering right calf strain, the Pacers’ All-Star point guard is trending toward a game-time decision, though, as reported by Evan Sidery of Forbes, Indiana is preparing as if they’ll be without him.
Haliburton’s availability isn’t just critical to Indiana’s survival—it’s the single biggest swing factor on the entire player prop board. The Pacers are currently 6.5-point underdogs at DraftKings, but should Haliburton be ruled out, that number could balloon toward double digits, and nearly every Indiana prop market would shift.
For bettors, this presents a key decision: wait for official word at the 30-minute mark before tipoff or get ahead of the market by building a position now, based on informed speculation. I’m choosing the latter. I’m approaching Game Six under the assumption that Haliburton gives it a go but will be severely limited, just as he was in Monday’s Game Five loss, when he finished with four points on 0-of-6 shooting in 31 ineffective minutes.
That sets the stage for another heavy dose of T.J. McConnell and other secondary contributors, creating clear value spots we can take advantage of. Let’s dive into my top prop bets for Thursday night. As always, you can track all of my results here.
Pascal Siakam Over 21.5 Points (+100, FanDuel), 25+ Alt Points (+190, FanDuel) & 30+ Alt Points (+520, FanDuel) & Most Points (+1000, DraftKings)
If the Pacers are going to force a Game Seven, Pascal Siakam will have to be the engine that gets them there, and all signs point to him embracing that role. He’s been Indiana’s most consistent offensive threat throughout the Finals, averaging 20.6 points per game—just above his season average—but his impact goes far beyond the box score. In Game Five, with Haliburton hobbled and ineffective, Siakam erupted for 28 points on 10-of-18 shooting and showcased the kind of versatile scoring that makes him a tough matchup for Oklahoma City’s defense.
With Haliburton either sidelined or severely limited due to his right calf strain, expect Siakam’s usage to spike. We saw him drop 30-plus in three games during the Eastern Conference Finals, and he’s fully capable of taking over again here, especially against an OKC defense that’s thrown the kitchen sink at him but has struggled to contain his mix of post-ups, spin moves, mid-range touch and physical drives. Whether he’s bullying smaller defenders in the paint or exploiting mismatches in isolation, Siakam has proven he can get to his spots no matter the coverage.
At even money for 22-plus and nearly 5-to-1 for a 30-point outing, the value is simply too good to ignore—especially when you factor in the stakes and expected volume. The +1000 price to lead all scorers implies essentially just a 9.1% chance he outscores Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Given the context and ceiling, that number feels disrespectful. Don’t be surprised if this becomes the Pascal Siakam game.
T.J. McConnell Over 4.5 Assists (-118, BetMGM), 7+ Alt Assists (+300, BetMGM), Most Assists (+400, DraftKings)
If Haliburton is once again limited—or ruled out entirely—McConnell becomes one of the most important players on the floor for Indiana. And if the Pacers hope to push this series to a Game Seven, they’ll need McConnell’s relentless energy and steady playmaking more than ever.
In just 17.9 minutes per game during the Finals, McConnell has averaged 4.2 assists on 8.8 potential assists—a staggering rate for someone in a bench role. Compare that to Haliburton, who has averaged just 7.2 assists on 14.0 potential dimes despite nearly double the playing time. McConnell is the logical candidate to soak up more or all of Haliburton’s passing volume.
What sets McConnell apart is his ability to shift momentum the moment he checks in—pushing pace, exploiting soft spots in the defense and creating high-quality looks for teammates. He’s also no stranger to racking up assists in bunches: a 7-plus dime night is well within reach, and at +300, offers real value. And while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are elite scorers, neither has dominated the assist column in this series. That opens the door for McConnell to lead all players in assists at +400—a price that significantly underrates the potential game script.
If Indiana extends the series to a decisive Game Seven, it will be because McConnell once again delivered in a high-leverage moment. As someone who already plays with desperation, I’m betting that he will do so again in front of a crazy home crowd that adores him.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points (-125, BetMGM), 15+ Alt Points (+220, BetMGM), 20+ Alt Points (+800, BetMGM)
If the Pacers are going to survive and force a Game Seven, they’ll need a spark, and Bennedict Mathurin is built to deliver one. The second-year guard exploded for 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting in just 22 minutes in Game Three, showing once again that he doesn’t need extended run to leave his mark offensively.
This isn’t new territory for Mathurin, either. He scored 20 and 23 points in Games Four and Five of the Eastern Conference Finals and has proven he can thrive under playoff pressure. While Rick Carlisle has kept him on a short leash at times, often due to defensive lapses or erratic decision-making. This is a do-or-die scenario, and the Pacers simply can’t afford to hold back one of their few true bucket-getters.
Mathurin’s role may fluctuate, but when he’s on the floor, his scoring mindset rarely wavers. He hunts shots, attacks closeouts and brings the type of fearless energy that can swing momentum in a tight contest. In a win-or-go-home environment, I’m betting that Carlisle lets him roll—and if he sees 20+ minutes, all three tiers of his points ladder are absolutely in play.
There’s clear volatility here, but that’s exactly why the upside is worth chasing. He doesn’t just have a pulse on these big moments—he has the firepower to erupt in them.
Jalen Williams Over 23.5 Points (-108, FanDuel), 30+ Alt Points (+320, FanDuel)
Jalen Williams is peaking at the perfect time, and with the first championship of the Oklahoma City era on the line, he’s primed to deliver again. Coming off a 40-point masterpiece in Game Five on 14-of-25 shooting, Williams enters Game Six brimming with confidence and carrying serious offensive momentum. He’s now scored 26, 27, and 40 points over the last three games of the NBA Finals, showing that he’s more than just a complementary piece. He’s a rising star built for the big stage.
While most of the spotlight naturally falls on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams has flourished in the “Robin” role, consistently capitalizing on defensive attention drawn to his MVP teammate. His ability to score in isolation, slash off the ball, and knock down tough mid-range shots gives OKC a lethal second option, and Indiana has yet to find an answer for him.
With a potential Game Seven off the table if the Thunder close things out, this is Williams’ moment to help seal the deal. At just 23.5 points, his standard line still feels modest given recent form, and the +320 price for 30+ offers real value in what could be the defining night of his young career. With the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the building, don’t be surprised if J-Dub rises to the occasion once again.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Triple-Double (+5000, FanDuel)
Gilgeous-Alexander has been the steady force behind Oklahoma City’s run to the brink of a championship, averaging 32.4 points, 4.6 rebounds (on 8.8 rebounding chances), and 5.0 assists (on 11.2 potential assists) in 39.2 minutes per game during the NBA Finals. The scoring is a given—he could get to 10 points in his sleep—but what makes this longshot intriguing is the ceiling on his peripheral stats.
With Indiana likely leaning on McConnell over Haliburton, the game should play with more pace and potentially more chaos—two things that tend to benefit all-around stat lines. SGA has quietly been close in the rebounding and assist potential departments all series long, and if he finds himself more engaged on the glass and as a playmaker in what could be a title-clinching win, he has a realistic shot at hitting all three benchmarks.
A triple-double to close out a historic season, lock in Finals MVP honors, and bring the Larry O’Brien Trophy to Oklahoma City for the first time? That’s a narrative fit for a superstar, and at +5000, it’s worth a sprinkle in case SGA saves his most complete game for last.
If this is the last NBA props article of the playoffs, it’s been an honor. If not, I’ll be right back here to break down the value for Game Seven!
