Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Thursday, May 22
The Western Conference Finals continue Monday night in Oklahoma City, where the Thunder will look to take a 2-0 lead over the Timberwolves after a gritty Game One win. While much of the betting attention will fall on stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards, Game One offered some valuable insight into how both teams are managing their rotations — and where we might find an edge in prop markets.
Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault continued to tinker with his lineup combinations in Game One, while Minnesota coach Chris Finch stuck with a tighter, more predictable eight-man rotation. That gives us a clearer sense of where minutes and opportunity are coming from on the Timberwolves’ side. Rather than try to beat inflated lines on the stars, I’m zeroing in on three key role players for Minnesota: Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Each saw meaningful floor time in Game One and should again play critical roles in Game Two.
Below are my top prop targets for Game Two, with reasoning, trends, and numbers to back each play. As always, all picks are tracked transparently, with full results for you to review.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 Made Threes (+115, Caesars)
Game One was a gross shooting night for Donte DiVincenzo — 3-of-12 from deep — but the underlying data tells a much different story and makes this a prime buy-low spot heading into Game Two.
DiVincenzo attempted 14 total shots, and 12 came from beyond the arc in the first game of the series. What really stands out is that all 12 of those threes were classified as either “open” or “wide open” by NBA.com’s tracking data. He went just 1-of-9 on wide-open threes (closest defender 6-plus feet away) and 2-of-3 on open looks (4-to-6 feet). At least three of those wide-open attempts rattled in and out (which I painfully tracked myself), a sign he was closer to a breakout game than the box score suggests.
With Mike Conley showing his age and struggling to keep up with Minnesota’s speed and length, DiVincenzo logged 30 minutes. He’s one of the few consistent scoring threats off the Timberwolves’ bench and should see a similar allotment of minutes in Game Two.
This play isn’t just about role, though; it’s about positive regression. DiVincenzo connected on 42.6% of his wide-open threes during the regular season, and the volume he’s getting makes this prop highly actionable. He’s hit at least three triples in 38 of 73 games this year (52.05%). If those open looks keep coming, he’ll have every chance to cash this line. With plus-money on a prop backed by volume, matchup context and shooting regression, this is one of my favorite values on the board for Game Two.
Naz Reid Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110, DraftKings)
Naz Reid’s Game One scoring line didn’t turn heads — just four points on 1-of-11 shooting — but the opportunity and usage paint a much more encouraging picture. This is a textbook buy-low spot with plenty of signals pointing toward a Game Two bounce-back, just like DiVincenzo.
Reid logged 28 minutes off the bench, while Rudy Gobert played only 21. That’s a telling rotation shift from head coach Chris Finch, who clearly values Reid’s mobility and offensive versatility in this fast-paced, switch-heavy series. Reid gives Minnesota floor spacing, decision-making, and the ability to punish smaller lineups, all traits Gobert doesn’t bring to the table.
Despite the shooting woes, Reid was heavily involved. He went 0-for-7 from three, but four of those attempts were wide open, and he shot 40% on wide-open threes during the regular season. If even two of those dropped, he would have flown over this PRA number.
The rest of his Game One box score was strong: eight rebounds on 10 chances and four assists on six potential assists, both showing his ability to contribute even when the shot isn’t falling. He still finished with 16 PRA in Game 1 — just 1.5 shy of the line — despite hitting only one shot from the field. It’s safe to assume that scoring dud won’t happen twice in a row.
Reid has gone 62-31 (66.7%) to the Over 17.5 PRA this season. With minutes trending up, volume secured, and plenty of shooting regression working in his favor, this is a sharp way to buy into a player whose role is rock solid and who had a lot of success in this matchup during the regular season.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Over 6.5 Points (+104, FanDuel)
This is one of the sneakier value plays on the board for Game Two — and it comes with both matchup history, minutes stability and a fun narrative on its side.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored eight points in Game 1 on just 3-of-11 shooting, including 2-of-9 from beyond the arc. But the quality of his looks was elite: he went just 1-for-6 on wide-open threes, per NBA tracking data, and with OKC’s defense collapsing on Anthony Edwards and daring others to shoot, those looks will be there again this time out.
What makes this especially actionable is his role. NAW played 28 minutes off the bench, and with his defensive versatility, he’s become a critical part of Finch’s rotation in this matchup specifically. In a series where the Thunder’s offense is driven by perimeter penetration and pace, Alexander-Walker’s on-ball defense and ability to switch gets him off the pine, and the minutes are everything when you’re betting a prop this low.
He also has had success against his family member on the other team. He’s scored eight or more in six straight games vs. his MVP cousin Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with scoring outputs of eight, 21, 18, 14, eight and 12 points. He’s hit the over in nine of 12 career games vs. SGA when playing at least 18 minutes, a threshold he cleared in Game One and should again in Game Two.
On the season, he’s 59-34 (63.4%) to the Over 6.5 points. With open shots, secure minutes and a proven history in this spot, this is excellent value at plus money.
I’ll be right back here tomorrow for my breakdown for Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals!
