Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday, May 21
The Eastern Conference Finals will tip off on Wednesday night before celebs and rowdy fans at Madison Square Garden as the New York Knicks host the Indiana Pacers. This is the highly anticipated Game One of a series loaded with storylines, including some unfinished business from last year.
These two teams met in the second round of last season’s Playoffs, with the Pacers pulling off a Game Seven win to knock New York out. Fast forward a year, and the Knicks are looking for revenge — and the betting market believes they’ll get it. New York is a -145 favorite to win the series at DraftKings and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. They’re listed as 4.5-point favorites in Game One with a total set at 224, per DraftKings.
There are several intriguing player prop angles heading into tonight’s matchup. As always, I transparently track my picks. Here are the Game One props I’m targeting, factoring in advanced data, strong historical results, matchups and more.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 10.5 Points (+100, DraftKings) & 20+ Alt Points (+700, DraftKings)
Bennedict Mathurin’s scoring prop sits at a modest 10.5 for Game One, but the matchup and history suggest real value on both the over and an alternate ceiling outcome.
The Pacers guard has been highly productive against the Knicks throughout his young career. In three regular-season meetings this year, Mathurin averaged 25.3 points per game, with individual scoring lines of 20 (in 24 minutes), 38 (career-high, in 41 minutes) and 18 (in 31 minutes). He’s cleared this line with room to spare in all three.
He’s had a lot of success against the Knicks in past seasons, too. Mathurin has averaged 19.8 PPG in 9 career games vs. New York, including the playoffs. He also dropped 20-plus points in three of four games at Madison Square Garden, showing a knack for stepping up under the bright lights.
Even though his minutes were somewhat limited in the last round (just 16.4 MPG), he still averaged 11.4 PPG and hit this over in the majority of those games. Given the perimeter-oriented nature of this matchup and the Knicks’ defensive tendency to limit paint touches (fewest opponent attempts in the paint per game), Mathurin’s offensive profile — catch-and-shoot, quick bursts, downhill attacks — fits well. Indiana leads all playoff teams in spot-up points (33.5), catch-and-shoot scoring (36.4), and three-point percentage (43.7%), all of which paint a pretty picture for someone like Mathurin to thrive.
He’s a microwave scorer with volume upside and has gone 59-22 to the Over 10.5 points line this season (72.8%). With likely increased run in a series better suited to his game, this line is too low. At +700, I absolutely love the 20-plus alternate line as well.
Obi Toppin Over 7.5 Points (-105, DraftKings)
Revenge narrative alert! Obi Toppin’s point prop sits at 7.5 for Game One, and this is another solid value play off Indy’s bench.
He’s gone over this number in both regular-season matchups against the Knicks this year, scoring eight points in 20 minutes and nine points in 21 minutes — both efficient outings. Across 12 career games vs. New York (including playoffs), he’s hit the over in nine of them, showcasing a reliable trend against his former team.
This postseason, Toppin is averaging 8.5 points in just 16.0 minutes per game, a strong per-minute scoring clip. He dropped 20 points in Game Four against the Cavs, proving that he can catch fire and provide an instant offensive jolt when given the green light.
The revenge factor is worth noting here. Toppin spent the first three years of his career with the Knicks before being traded to Indiana. Expect a high-energy performance against his old squad, especially with New York’s starters logging 40+ minutes and likely showing fatigue. This matchup sets up perfectly for a burst from Toppin’s bench role, where he can serve as a major spark.
He’s gone 55-34 to the over on this line this season, including playoffs, a 61.8% hit rate, and the history, matchup and motivation are in place to clear it again in Game One.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 34.5 Points + Rebounds (-106, FanDuel)
Karl-Anthony Towns has been highly productive against the Pacers this season, and this line sits a few ticks too low considering his role, matchup history and postseason form.
In three regular-season games vs. Indiana, Towns cleared this number each time, posting 36, 39, and 52 combined points and rebounds. He scored 21, 30, and 40 points in those contests while pulling down 15, 9, and 12 boards, respectively. Across those matchups, he averaged 12.0 rebounds on 19.7 rebounding chances, consistently exploiting Indiana’s frontcourt.
That rebounding upside has carried into the postseason, where Towns is averaging 11.3 boards on 18.8 rebounding chances per game to go along with 19.8 points. He’s also become an essential piece of the Knicks’ offensive philosophy. Towns’ ability to stretch the floor and operate as a secondary scoring option to Jalen Brunson gives him a green light nearly every time he touches the ball, particularly in pick-and-pop or spot-up looks.
This number has gone over in 49 of 84 games for Towns this season, including the playoffs, a 58.3% hit rate. Given the matchup, volume and opportunity, this over is firmly in play for Game One. Based on pricing, this is the only Knicks prop I like.
Good luck in Game One. I’ll be back tomorrow for Game Two of the Western Conference Finals!
